'I Don't Think I'll Care To Give Odds'

Paula Zahn: Good to have you with us on American Morning. Welcome, sir.

Richard Armitage: Good morning, Ms. Zahn.

Paula Zahn: As you head to the region, what are your concerns about the likelihood of some sort of military confrontationbetween India and Pakistan?

Richard Armitage: Well, I'm not a statistician. I don't think I'll care to give odds. But our whole effort is going to be totry to stop a military confrontation from happening and to bring down the tension, following on the efforts ofPresident Bush and Secretary Powell over the past weeks.

Paula Zahn: What are the options the US have to stop any kind of military confrontation?

Richard Armitage: Well, the stopping of a military confrontation belongs to the two parties, India and Pakistan. But I thinkthe United States, joined by our international parties, right now joined by President Putin in Almaty, istrying to do our best to bring reason and logic to bear on what is a very difficult situation.

Paula Zahn: Here is what the President of Pakistan had to say to Tom Mintier over the weekend about the possibility of aconventional war turning into a nuclear war. Let's listen:

TAPE OF PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: "I don't think either side is that irresponsible to go to that limit. I would even go to the extent ofsaying one shouldn't even be discussing these things because any sane individual cannot even think of goinginto this unconventional war, whatever the pressures."

Paula Zahn: Even as we hear what President Musharraf had to say, clearly there are members of Congress who believe thatnuclear war is a distinct possibility. Do you think President Musharraf is trying to downplay thatpossibility?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think he is trying to downplay it, and I thank him for that. The problem is once the iron starts tobe exchanged between the two sides, then reason and logic seem to go out the window. So the whole effort hasto be to try to keep them from escalating right now. And I think those who say we shouldn't even think about anuclear exchange are right in one way, but we have to have it in the back of our minds.

Paula Zahn: Senator Shelby just back from the region, here is the concern he expressed on the air yesterday. Let's listento that:

TAPE OF SENATOR SHELBY: "I think it's the most dangerous place in the world potentially, and I expressed that when I was in NewDelhi to the Indian Prime Minister and also to the Pakistan President. I think they realize that. I hope itwill not get to desperation, as Congressman Goss alluded. If it does, I'm afraid we'll have a nuclearexchange, the worst of all scenarios. It's an explosive, incendiary place like we've never seen."

Paula Zahn: How would you characterize the volatility along that border of Kashmir now?

Richard Armitage: Well, it's extraordinarily volatile, as Senator Shelby said, is exactly correct, but I would note that formerCIA Director Bill Webster in his last testimony to Congress about twelve years ago stated that in his viewKashmir was the most dangerous situation in the world. Certainly nothing has happened in the last twelve yearsto change that diagnosis.

Paula Zahn: There's a long piece in the Wall Street Journal talking about how limited the US is in its effort totry to bring these two countries back from the brink. And they say about the only military option the US wouldhave if nuclear war were to potentially break out is the US using the so-called theater missile defenses. Canyou share with our audience what that means, this morning?

Richard Armitage: There is the development in the United States military of theater missiles defense which would allow theshoot-down of short-range missiles. But I think to be sensible about the present situation, there is noactivity other than diplomatic activity that can be brought to bear at this moment in a timely enough fashionto de-escalate this situation.

Paula Zahn: So far, the leaders of Pakistan and India have made it quite clear they don't plan to meet directly with Mr.Putin. Do you plan to try to help broker a meeting between the leaders of those other three countries?

Richard Armitage: Well, they are going to meet individually with Mr. Putin, as I understand it, and there is no scheduledtrilateral meeting. I don't think we're at a situation right now where we're in the business of brokering ameeting. I think right now we're in the business on both sides trying to be reasonable and logical, to lowerthe temperature. We want to assess President Musharraf's stated position that he has stopped the infiltration,or there is no infiltration across the line of control. And in return, we'd like to get India to begin ade-escalatory step of some sort that can be visible to Pakistan.

Paula Zahn: Is it possible to defuse the situation in Kashmir without the United States taking a side?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I guess it's theoretically possible, but it's difficult. The Simla Accord of 1972, both India and Pakistandetermined that the question of Kashmir was a bilateral issue. And if it's to be solved, it will be solvedbilaterally, but I think with the help and the assistance and the encouragement of the internationalcommunity, first among them the United States, and also Great Britain.

Paula Zahn: And as this all plays out, what are your chief concerns about the troops that remain at the border ofAfghanistan and Pakistan? Will their status change?

Richard Armitage: That's a question more correctly directed to Mr. Rumsfeld. Secretary Powell, the President, and I areconcerned about our citizens both in Pakistan and India. We have well over 60,000 American citizens in Indiaand well over 8,000 in Pakistan, and that's our first priority.

Paula Zahn: All right. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Thanks so much for the preview of your trip, and goodluck to you.

Richard Armitage: Thank you Ms. Zahn.