"I Do Not Go By Pre-Poll Surveys"

"Outlook" spoke to CPI(M) Politburo member and chief sponsor of the literacycampaign in Bengal, Mr. Biman Bose. Known to be a hardliner, Bose does not mince words,which often lands him into controversies, which he does not avoid. Within the party Boseis known among the best organisers, having joined Left politics from his student days.

Mr Bose, this is going to be the first elections in Bengal in the new millennium andbeing the ruling coalition for over two decades, the Left Front is on trial. How do youassess the situation?

I think we will return to power. I do not want to talk about numbers just yet.

How does campaigning for this election differ from other campaigns in the past?

For the first time we have a sort of electronic media activism, almost apolitical intervention, which was not there in the past. Leaders from different partiesexplain their positions on TV or radio, watched or heard by large number of people. Thereare arguments, counter arguments. In a way it goes to help the smaller parties. Forinstance leaders of major parties get about the same exposure, same time to explain theirviewpoint, as people belonging to smaller parties. I sometimes wonder whether this isreally fair.

Why, what is wrong with that?

Well, look, major parties have been there for years, for ages, people knowtheir merits and demerits. On the other hand, here you have a slew of new parties whosepotential is not known, it is not even certain whether they will corner even 1 or 2% ofthe popular vote, yet they talk as though they have already arrived. Not only do they getthe same coverage time but some even shout more senior leaders down through sheer lungpower!

All right. Now what else is new in the 2001 polls?

This time voters are supposed to be totally polarised into two broad camps, theLF and the Trinamool\Congress camps. In point of fact, I suspect there will be manyIndependents, mavericks who will enter the fray, not necessarily believing they can win,but only to spoil the chances of A or B. Some are bought off by other parties -- not Leftparties, mind you -- and make a killing. In view of the high stakes involved this time, Ibelieve there will be more of that sort of thing in 2001.

Some recent newspaper surveys suggest that people place Buddhadev Bhattacharya, ChiefMinister, as slightly ahead of Ms Mamata Banerjee as the most suitable leader for WestBengal, but they also put the non-Left combination somewhat ahead of the Left Front.

Personally, I do not go by the pre-poll surveys. Depends who has done thesurvey and what methodology, what yardsticks were used. For instance, most media conductedpolls tend to be urban-centred, which may indicate an anti-incumbency factor here andthere. But not many researchers really visit the rural areas where our strength is. Eventhere, conducting a survey, even in a relatively simpler district like Purulia, may not beeasy. For instance you cover the district headquarters in Purulia by way of the urban response and take one rural constituency for the ideal mix.Which one do you choose as the representative rural seat?

Bandwan differs totally from Jhalda, even though they are not far off and each isdistinct from say, Kashipur which borders Bankura district. So which is typical Puruliarural and indicative Purulia feelings? I ask you. Difficult, isn't it? And it gets moredifficult still when you deal with the really complex districts like the two Parganas, orMidnapore.

But does it not affect cadre morale, to hear people talk of your defeat?

Not exactly. Pre-poll surveys in Bengal have always been proved wrong, everytime they suggested we will lose and yet, here we are after 24 years. I am confident wewill be back in power. The work that we have done in the rural areas, despite muchopposition from other parties and no help from the Centre will speak for us, and ourcity-based opposition leaders are in for a disappointment yet again. (Bose ends by quotingfigures relating to land reforms and social welfare work done in the villages)