Good Guy, Bad Guy ...

The Constitution defines how politics should be conducted. The systemdetermines how politics is actually run. The Constitution was framed by itsfounding fathers. The system is run by unprincipled politicians. Our systemallowed too many political excesses. Now the sins of the past are catching up.Politics is in turmoil. There is uncertainty in the air. Let’s begin with theOffice of Profit issue.

The Office of Profit issue was raised by a Congress Party member. It nailedMrs Jaya Bachchan. She had to quit the Rajya Sabha for heading an institutedeemed to be office of profit. Congressmen were gleeful. Its Left partnerswatched with smug satisfaction. Unfortunately for them, they hadn’t done theirhomework. Others got into the act. Complaints against their own MPs occupyingoffices of profit began to pile up. The list is growing. But already thePresident has forwarded 40 petitions to the Election Commission. The latter isprocessing these cases. 18 among the 40 belong to Left parties. 10 among the 18belong to CPI (M). Lok Sabha Speaker, Mr Somnath Chatterjee, is one of them.

Subsequently the Office of Profit Act appeared in a new light. The governmentcontemplated an immediate ordinance to prevent its fallout even while Parliamentwas in session. Eventually it passed a Bill exempting honourable members whocame under purview of this law. Alas, the President, bitten once by the Biharassembly dissolution, became twice shy. He returned the Bill to Parliament forreconsideration. It can be taken up only in Parliament’s next session.

Meanwhile investigations by the Election Commission in cases against the 40MPs are proceeding apace. It is entirely possible therefore that the EC couldunseat the MPs before Parliament can discuss the Bill and send it back to thePresident for signing. The prospect of this happening seems to have rattled theLeft. Mr Prakash Karat chided the EC for proceeding with its investigationbefore Parliament has met. He sternly advised the EC not to embroil itself inparliamentary affairs.

Clearly, stress has taken toll of Mr Karat’s nerves. Otherwise, why wouldhe put the cart before the horse? It is Parliament which is embroiling itself inaffairs of the EC and not the other way around. The EC was seized of the matterbefore Parliament decided to amend the law related to Office of Profit. Withapproving nods from UPA allies, it unseated Mrs Bachchan from her membership ofthe House. How could the EC adopt a different yardstick and stall investigationof the 40 MPs without severely eroding its own credibility?

It is not only the Election Commission which attracted flack. Even thePresident is being subjected to murmurs of protest for discharging his duty bysending the Bill back for consideration. What will he do if the Bill isimmediately returned by Parliament without any amendment? That this is beingconsidered has already been indicated by the Law Minister. Suddenly, thePresident’s powers are being closely scrutinised. Legal experts have solemnlywritten newspaper articles defining the limitations in the President’s powers.The circumstances however could render irrelevant the President’s role in thiscrisis. Events may move too fast. If 10 by-elections for seats vacated by CPI(M) MPs occupying offices of profit are to be fought, a mid-term generalelection may not appear too arduous for that party. It is in this fluidpolitical situation that the fuel price issue erupted as a godsend for the UPA.

Under compulsion of rising global oil prices, the PM was constrained to raisethe price of fuel. Possibly, this could have been avoided if the government’sfiscal policies and public expenditure had been more prudent in the past. Butright now the government has no choice. It is involved in a fire-fightingexercise. If fuel prices are not raised, the public sector oil companies couldgo bankrupt. Political parties of both the Left and the Right know this. Butthey are playing politics. Consider the BJP’s agitation in this context:crippled by infighting and smeared with scandal, the fuel price hike provides itwith the ideal issue to divert attention and consolidate its cadres. For the UPA’spartners it seems a different story.

Congress activists burn an effigy of West Bengal CM Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee demanding withdrawal of sales tax on petrol and diesel.

Apparently, nothing less than a change of guard within the present governmentwould suffice. In other words Dr Manmohan Singh must go. This is where thecomplexities of Byzantine intrigue cause confusion. To be fair, the Left hasconsistently opposed the PM. Whether it was Iran, the Indo-US nuclear deal orthe pace and direction of economic reforms, Left leaders never softened theircriticism of the PM. Forget the Left’s inconsistencies in accepting fromKolkata, courtesy Mr Bhattacharjee, what it rejected from New Delhi, courtesythe PM. That’s the way of power politics. Right?

It is the role of the Congress and Mrs Sonia Gandhi which is the real puzzle.That several disgruntled senior leaders of the Congress wooed the Left whilehabitually prostrating themselves before Mrs Gandhi was known. That some amongthem coveted the PM’s post was also known. Indeed, one has considerablystrengthened his claim on support from the Left by signing India’s first everMemorandum of Understanding with China’s Peoples’ Liberation Army! But MrsGandhi thus far had successfully struck a balance by humouring them as well asthe Left without abandoning Dr Manmohan Singh. Does that situation still hold?Or is Mrs Gandhi reconciled to replacing the PM?

The answer to that puzzle may lie in the Congress party’s motive behind itsstated opposition to the cabinet decision to hike fuel prices. According toreports, Mrs Gandhi sought a reduction of Re 1 in the price of petrol to placatethe Left as well as to steal its thunder. Her action possibly gives her theimage of a caring custodian of aam admi. However when she met the PM in theglare of the media to propose petrol price reduction, the PM firmly scotched theidea. What remains unclear is whether this was stage-managed drama at which MrsGandhi has shown herself to be unusually adept, or whether this was actualconfrontation. If it was a genuine standoff between the PM and the lady, someonehas to blink. So who will blink first? Will the PM within a week relent andaccept the petrol price reduction? Or will Mrs Gandhi relent and abandon theLeft as well as all the tail-wagging poodles within the Congress?

The coming days should tell us. At the least, there could be someone withplenty of egg on face. At most, there could be a change of PM within the UPA.

Rajinder Puri can be reached at rajinderpuri2000@yahoo.com