Friends Or Foes? Tricky Calculations For BJP, Shiv Sena As Hung BMC Looms Large

“Our sincere tributes to the concept of transparency (as is said at a funeral),” was one of the many WhatsApp jokes doing the rounds on Thursday as counting for BMC elections was underway. The joke takes off on the endless references to BJP’s agenda of transparency (prompted by demonitisation) during the campaign led by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis and endless retorts by Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray on the same subject – not to forget the repeated declaration of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation being the most transparent civic body!  

By the time results were finally declared it was BJP that had emerged stronger than ever before at 82 seats from their previous 31, after Shiv Sena marginally improved its previous tally from 75 to 84 seats. But basically, both of them are now neck to neck.  

After a battle that was fought tooth and nail between friends-turned-foes, the city looks at a “hung” situation where both BJP or Sena will need support to reach the required tally of 114 seats – be it from each other, Congress, NCP, MNS and independents. During the day Shiv Sena supporters were seen celebrating at different party stronghold areas such as Dadar, Mahim, Andheri. However, towards early evening the celebrations seemed a tad forced, as the dream or ambition of clear majority had been decisively shattered by none other than BJP. By evening things looked grim.

Even as a few minor scuffles were reported between BJP and Sena workers in Mumbai, the BJP local leaders like Kirit Somaiya and Sudhir Mungatiwar had already suggested an alliance to “pursue the agenda of development.” Many “insider reports” and “murmurs” have started coming out indicating overtures being made to independents by both parties.

Earlier in the day, at Andheri Sports Complex, one of the counting centres, former corporator Jyotsna Dighe of Congress had accepted her defeat before it was formally declared. That seemed to be the trend all over the city for the grand old party that was reduced to 31 out of 227 seats. Sanjay Nirupam has offered his resignation for the worst ever Congress performance. Milind Deora has called for introspection and also congratulated the winning parties. He told a news channel, “It seems that the people wanted to continue with the current set up.”  

Analysts pointed to preference to have the same party at local, state and national level. During the campaign there was hardly any difference between policies and programmes that are announced or executed at central, state or local level – be it roads, demonitisation, metro, saving the trees at Aarey. And hence, the belief that one party at all levels helps in execution of programmes may have been a factor. Not to forget this election saw a record voter turnout at 55.53% - also because the voter lists were trimmed to 91 lakh from 1 crore in 2012 – but also increased voting by several lakh people. An elaborate and closer analysis will shed more light on this factor.

Although BJP has not won in Mumbai and Thane, the only municipal corporation where Sena has won decisively, BJP has clear victories in either other municipal corporations of Maharashtra such as Nashik, Pune elbowing out MNS and NCP. Except for Pankaja Munde offering to resign for poor show of her party in Parali, Beed (ZP elections), overall the party has made inroads into bastions of Congress-NCP, keeping their own Nagpur municipal corporation to themselves.   

However, some also point to the fact that between BJP and Sena, they have garnered all the votes, which would have otherwise gone to other parties because of anti-incumbency. Calling it a saffron wave – albeit with no agreement and harmony among each other – some have predicted that the two could well come together.

After alleging that Sena was in a secret alliance with Congress, if BJP offers to partner with Sena again or vice versa, as it continues to at state level and at the centre, it would be yet another low for politics – though not unexpected at all. And in all this, the role played by Raj Thackeray with his seven seats, cannot be ignored either.

So will it be Shiv Sena-Congress to stop BJP, or BJP-Sena after snapping ties in the most acrimonious way, or Sena-MNS-Others with BJP in opposition – all in all tough times ahead for the city and tricky calculations for both the parties for their future at state level.

Wonder what grand old daddy of Maharashtra politics NCP Chief Sharad Pawar, who completed golden jubilee in politics and who did not have an NCP candidate to vote for in his ward in Mumbai, is thinking about all this…