Extension Likely For Foreign Secretary Jaishankar, And It Could Trample Many A Dream

Speculation is rife in South Block that S. Jaishankar’s two-year term scheduled to end on January 28 next year, is likely to be extended. Though it is not clear yet whether, even if he gets an extension, it will be for six months, a year or for another two years.

But an extension to Jaishankar means that a host of other senior diplomats who were also in contention will now retire from their current positions without getting a shot at the top slot in the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).

Jaishankar, a 1977-batch officer of the Indian Foreign Service, was brought in as foreign secretary by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in a dramatic fashion two years back. With less than a few days left for him to retire from service, Jaishankar became foreign secretary replacing Sujatha Singh on January 28, 2015, cutting her two-year tenure by seven months.

If it is extended, it will now involve more drama. A host of senior diplomats, that include India’s ambassador to Italy Anil Wadhwa, Secretary (West) Sujata Mehta, Indian ambassador to the US, Navtej Sarna, Secretary (Economic Relations) Amar Sinha, Indian ambassador to Nepal, Ranjit Rae, Dean of the FSI and director-general of the ICCR, Amrendra Khatua, to name a few of the senior most diplomats, will all retire in the coming months without being considered for the foreign secretary’s post.

If Jaishankar remains in the post till the end of the Modi government’s term, it can also jeopardize India’s current ambassador in China, Vijay Gokhale’s chance. Gokhale was widely believed to be Jaishankar’s replacement. But a two year extension can even force Gokhale into retirement.

Choosing a foreign secretary has mostly been a prime minister’s prerogative. Jaishankar was also Manmohan Singh’s choice for the coveted post in the foreign ministry. But Congress party colleagues had advised Singh not to break the seniority pattern on the eve of parliamentary elections and he had opted for Sujatha Singh. But PM Modi was keen to get Jaishankar in and, therefore, he broke from convention, ending Sujatha’s tenure mid-way to bring in Jaishankar. A. P. Venkateswaran had also resigned from his foreign secretary’s tenure during Rajiv Gandhi’s prime ministership.

However, Jaishankar’s closeness with PM has always been a matter of animated discussion in South Block. Though admired by a host of younger diplomats, Jaishankar’s proximity to the Prime Minister has always been an area of bother for his senior South Block colleagues. Some of them had opted for postings outside the headquarters within months of his taking over, while others bided their time, hoping when his tenure ends in January 2017, they may get a chance at the top post. But going by the prevailing mood in South Block, most of the other contenders now seem to have resigned to their fate.

There is no hard and fast rule on giving an extension to a senior bureaucrat. Much of it depends on the top political leadership. But since 2010, most secretaries in key ministries have enjoyed two-year tenure and retired at the end of it. However, there have also been exceptions.

Jaishankar had been India’s ambassador to both China and the United States and his experience in dealing with these countries, thought to be two big challenges for Indian foreign policy, had strengthened his credentials for the top job in the foreign ministry. Under a Donald Trump Presidency, these challenges are likely to get tougher and this can be an argument that supports his extension beyond 2017 January.

But PM Modi who is in the habit of holding his cards close to his chest on such crucial matters, has often surprised observers with his out-of-the-box thinking in the past. He may do so yet again in the coming days on the foreign secretary. However, if the dominant narrative and mood in South Block is anything to go by, then Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is here to stay for a long time.