Editor's Byte

We are more than half way through the election -- and still no one knows. Although, there is a small buoyancy in the BJP’s steps as they glimpse the prospect of emerging as the largest single party. And the Congress, meanwhile, is admitting that it is "touch and go," going to the extent of saying that they would prefer to sit in the opposition rather than make dubious deals. The insistence with which they are reiterating that Manmohan Singh as prime minister is "non-negotiable" suggests a degree of nervousness. 

The truth is that everything is ‘negotiable’, except the BJP and the Congress getting together, or the Left and the BJP shaking hands. After May 16, we will witness some shameless deal-making. And it will, you can be sure, all be done in the national interest. Oh! national interest, what sins are committed in thy name!  

The conventional wisdom is that whichever formation reaches the magic figure, the coalition will be inherently unstable. The word "semi-final" is much in vogue and the smart money is on another general election in a year’s time. 

If a week is a long time in politics, 365 days is an eternity. Remember, Vajpayee’s 24-party coalition was supposed to fall quickly – yet it lasted a full term. Similarly, Dr Manmohan Singh was scheduled to last for just a couple of years as head of the UPA. What we forget is that the smaller parties – who are allegedly the destabilising factor – have more than a little interest in keeping the government going. Not only is it the lure of ministership and the prospect of making money, but also the stature of the party goes up in the eyes of its supporters.  

So, while the big boys may have long-term strategic interests, the regional parties only have short-term interests. Thus, the Congress, which by all accounts, is prepared to wait for 2011 for another election, may have to wait till 2014. Such are the glorious uncertainties of government formation. 

Tailpiece: Since I am the original candlewallah, I have some sympathy for the Mumbai-candlewallahs who are getting it in the neck.