Editor's Byte

There is much talk that Election 2009 is the "semi-final". The S-wordfrequently pops up in talk shows and there is considerable smug satisfaction asthe learned media pundit delivers his forecast. It is also a smart phrase touse, suggesting that the commentator is not a-week-is-a-long-time-in-politics kind of expert but someone who is capable of looking beyond theimmediate. 

Of course, it is possible that in two or three years we will have anothergeneral election. It is also possible, indeed probable, that we will not. Whowould have thought that Vajpayee’s cumbersome and fragile 24-party coalitionwill last its full term? Who would have thought that Dr Manmohan Singh willenjoy five years in office? A ruling coalition, once formed, is likely to staytogether. The glue? Being in power. 

It is the numerous smaller parties who are keener to be on the winning sideand be part of the government. Not only does their prestige in their home statego up but they are able to dole out the loaves and fishes of office. Mr MKarunanidhi, despite his periodic threats, is under considerable pressure inTamil Nadu on the LTTE and Prabhakaran issue. Yet, he is taking the flak andcontinues to be a loyal ally of the UPA. 

One must remember that the two big national parties have tasted power at theCentre. Meanwhile, the smaller parties, say the PDP in Kerala or the JD (S) inKarnataka, have been denied the heady experience. Once they are part of thewinning group, they have every reason to stay there despite local difficulties. 

I don’t know what odds the bookies are giving for the new government tolast its full term. I would advise a betting man/woman to place a wagerimmediately.  

Tailpiece: Quite easily the most fluent, articulate and succinctpublic speaker (in English) is Jayalalitha. Why? She even quotes Shakespeare!