Doklam Standoff Ends: It Remains To Be Seen If This Is A Temporary Measure

An assurance by China, not to continue the road construction activity allowing India to withdraw its troops from Doklam appears to be at the bottom of the resolution of the two month long standoff between the two neighbours.

It remains, however, remains to be seen whether this was a temporary measure by the Chinese to ensure the smooth passage of the BRICS Summit that it is holding in the country early next month or a more permanent arrangement.

India claimed both sides have agreed to “disengage” their personnel from the area. China, though did not make any mention of the road construction activity maintained that its patrol in Doklam will continue. But it acknowledged that “in accordance with the changes of the situation on the ground, China will make necessary adjustments and deployments in accordance with those changes.”

The main opposition, Congress party did not accept the government’s claim that both sides have agreed on “mutual disengagement” arguing that China had insisted on continuing with the patrolling in Doklam.

However, for India patrolling in the area by the Chinese troops was not an issue. The area is under dispute because it is claimed by both China and Bhutan. India’s argument of moving into the Bhutanese territory to block the Chinese was to stop the road construction in the area that falls close to the India, China and Bhutan tri-junction.

 As part of the 2012 agreement between India and China both sides had agreed not to undertake any construction activity in the area unless all three parties—India, China and Bhutan give their consent to it. The Doklam episode began with the Chinese unilateral action of building the road there forcing Indian soldiers to move in and stop the Chinese workers and construction activities. Once the Chinese assured to stop the road building construction, India did not have any problems of withdrawing its troops from Doklam.

However, the way the situation had been panning out in the past two months, many had begun to predict whether the issue will be settled through an armed engagement between the two neighbours.  The Chinese agencies and its media had been issuing regular belligerent statements threatening India with dire consequences if it did not withdraw its troops.

Delhi refused to match the Chinese rhetoric but remained firm in its position. Finally, back room negotiations and prolonged diplomacy on part of the Chinese, Indian and also aided by the Russians, appear to have worked in finding an amicable resolution to the standoff.

An important part in this appears to be the decision of PM Narendra Modi to participate in the forthcoming BRICS Summit in China. There were apprehensions in some quarters that if the Doklam standoff continued it would be difficult for Modi to attend the BRICS Summit. The Summit gathered special significance this year because this was the first one being organized by President Xi Jinping. With India agreeing to participate in the Summit at the highest level with Modi’s participation, the Chinese leadership also appeared to have looked for ways to ease the tension and resolve the Doklam standoff before the BRICS Summit.

It now remains to be seen whether the two leaders—Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi—when they meet on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit can find a more permanent mechanism to ease future tensions along the disputed boundary.