According to the collations based on open source information put out by the South Asia Terrorism Portal of New Delhi, 69 civilians and 90 members of the security forces were killed in terrorism-related violence in Jammu & Kashmir in 2008. There were 49 explosions in different parts of the State using improvised explosive devices or landmines or hand-grenades in which 29 persons were killed. The remaining 40 civilians were killed in other incidents, not involving explosions. There were no incidents of suicide or suicidal (fidayeen) terrorism.
During 2009, 55 civilians and 78 members of the security forces were killed. There were only seven explosions in which 11 were killed. The remaining 44 civilians died in other incidents not involving explosions. There were no incidents of suicide or suicidal terrorism during 2009 either.
The Portal has not put out collated statistics regarding the annual infiltrations of Pakistan-trained terrorists into J&K , However, other reports indicate that the infiltrations continued to take place.
Thus during the last two years, there was a qualitative change in the ground situation marked by the following features:
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- The total absence of suicidal or suicide terrorism.
- A significant decrease in the indiscriminate killing of civilians using explosive substances.
- A decrease in fatalities of civilians as well as members of the security forces due to terrorism-related violence.
- But continuing infiltrations of Pakistan-trained terrorists.
- To divert attention away from the domestic challenges faced by Zardari and the PPP-led government.
- To placate the Army due to fears that the Army might get involved in any conspiracy to force the exit of Zardari.
- To placate the Punjabi jihadi organisations, which have been itching for renewed action in J&K, in order to bring about a divide between them and the anti-Army Pakistani Taliban.
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- A calibrated withdrawal and/or re-deployment of the Army troops in order to give the J&K Police and the CRPF a greater responsibility for maintaining peace and law and order in the State.
- Maintaining on the ground the confidence-building measures already agreed upon with Pakistan before the bilateral dialogue came to be suspended following the 26/11 terrorist strikes by the Lashkar-e-Toiba in Mumbai.
- Maintaining the momentum of the dialogue between the government and representatives of different political formations in the State in order to work out a political solution to their demands which are considered legitimate.
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.
