Dire Prophecies

Almost prophetically, over 14 years ago, Abul Maali Syed, evolving scenariosfor Pakistan in the year 2006, predicted, in his book The Twin Era ofPakistan: Democracy and Dictatorship (New York: Vantage Press, 1992):

Who would have believed that Balochistan, once the least populated and poorest province of unified Pakistan, would become independent and the third richest oil-producing country after Saudi Arabia and Kuwait? Who would have thought that this vast terrain was impregnated with vast reservoirs of oil and gas? The development in Balochistan was neglected and whenever a tribal chief spoke about the plight of their people, the Pakistan government shoved the barrel of a gun at him and silenced him. Today, having lost East Pakistan, Balochistan, Sindh, and part of Seraiki belt, Pakistan is still entangled with Pakhtoon tribes on her northern border and is no more in a strong position to hold on to the Pakhtoon area much longer.

While this scenario is stillfar from realization, a cursory glance at Balochistan in 2006 clearly shows thatthe situation in this strategically important and largest province of Pakistanis following an ominous trajectory, with Baloch nationalist violence escalatinginto what could soon become a major insurgency. The law and ordersituation in Pakistan’s resource-rich but poorest Balochistan provincecontinues to spin out of the government’s control amidst a massive militaryoperation being carried out against the rebel Baloch nationalists, who, as yet,are just demanding greater political autonomy and a bigger share of revenuesfrom their huge gas reserves and other natural resources.

Balochistan has been in thenews for over a year now because of frequent clashes between armed Balochnationalists and the Pakistan Army, which have already led to a massive militaryoperation in parts of the province that are under the influence of the Bugti andMarri tribes. The government says that local tribal chiefs and the nationalistsare responsible for ‘creating a law and order situation’ because they areopposed to development in the province. The tribal chiefs and nationalists,however, complain that they are constantly being denied their due share of theincome from huge gas coffers and that they have been excluded from both thedevelopment as well as the political process to the advantage of the PakistanArmy which is using development to extend its presence and influence in theprovince.

The current operations in theMarri and the Bugti areas started after President General Musharraf’s visit toKohlu, the administrative headquarters of the Marri tribal area, on December 15,2005. On his arrival, eight rockets slammed into a Frontier Constabulary (FC)camp on the outskirts of Kohlu. The following day, the Director General and theInspector General of the FC were injured in firing while surveying the area. TheFC, backed by regular troops stationed in the Sui area, launched a massiveoperation against ‘miscreants’ in both the Marri and Bugti areas. Themilitary as well as the government continues to emphasise that no militaryoperations are underway, and only the paramilitary FC is engaged in rooting outmiscreants. Both Balochistan Governor Owais Ghani and Chief Minister Jam Yousufhave stated that 1,000-2,000 fararis (rebels) are holed up in camps thatare being targeted by the security forces. They have tried to allay fearsregarding civilian casualties stating that no civilians are to be found in thevicinity of the farari camps.

Since the areas under siegehave been sealed off by the troops, the only sources of information on thesituation are official spokesmen or Baloch nationalist leaders. Irrespective ofwhether one chooses to take on board all that both the sides are saying, it isundeniable that a major conflagration is in progress. The latest reports ofKohlu being deprived of power by the blowing up of electricity pylons, as wellas rocket and bomb attacks in Sibi, Harnai, Naushki and Turbat, suggest that thefire is spreading to new areas in the province. The security forces may claim tobe confining themselves to targeting the farari camps, but in aerialstrafing and bombing, avoiding collateral civilian casualties is beyond thescope of even the most sophisticated armies. While the fighting rages andspreads in Balochistan, voices of concern from other parts of the country aresteadily getting louder.

The opposition parties inPakistan have criticized ongoing operations, demanding an immediate halt and theinitiation of negotiations with the Baloch leadership. The Nawaz Sharif-ledMuslim League and the Benazir Bhutto-led People’s Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami,led by Qazi Hussain Ahmad, have all condemned the military operations inBalochistan, in the process delivering dire warnings of the dangers of trying toresolve essentially political problems through the use of force. In a jointresolution adopted by the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) at itsemergent meeting in Islamabad in the last week of January 2006, the oppositionparties demanded that the government call off the Balochistan operation, dustoff the parliamentary committee reports on the Balochistan issue, and try tore-engage the Baloch leadership with the weapon of negotiations rather than thelanguage of weapons.

An adamant Musharraf, however,insists that those resisting the military operation in Balochistan were‘foreign agents’ who are opposed to development in the province and wouldhave to be dealt with an iron hand. Consequently, as things stand, the fifthcivil-military war in Balochistan since independence in 1947 has escalated to aworrying degree. The sputtering insurgency led by the Baloch nationalists isfast being transformed into an all-out internal war between the forces of theCentre backed by the Punjab-dominated military establishment and the Balochpeople.

Taking notice of theBalochistan imbroglio, the Chairperson of the Human Rights Commission ofPakistan (HRCP), Asma Jahangir, led a fact finding mission to Balochistanin January 2006 to collect first hand information and to verify the flood ofreports being received by the Commission about the use of heavy weaponry againstthe Baloch nationalists by the Pakistan Army and the scale of armed conflict inparts of Balochistan. Giving a first hand account of the actual happenings inBalochistan, Jahangir told this writer that the ongoing militarization of theprovince in the name of development had provoked the current crisis. "Thepeople of Balochistan believe that the real motive behind the setting up of newcantonments in the province was to completely take over their natural resources,particularly in Kohlu and Dera Bugti."

Commenting on the government’srepeated denials of having launched a military operation and its claims that itwas only trying to deal with a law and order situation in Balochistan where a‘few miscreants’ were involved, Jahangir stated: "However, our findingsare very different. Having visited the troubled areas of the province,particularly Dera Bugti and Kohlu, we found evidence of a full-fledged militaryoperation being carried out. The Army is also involved in the operations becausethere have been helicopters flying over, there has been aerial firing and insome places also bombardment. The disproportionate use of force, mass arrests ofcivilians and the lack of accountability of state agencies amount to a grotesqueviolation of the most basic rights of citizens." Jahangir also disclosed that,since just December 31, 2005, the military operation inflicted at least 50civilian fatalities, including women and children, besides causing injuries todozens. She said the local population had been subjected to indiscriminatebombing and the dead even included some Hindus, many of whom had been forced toleave their homes due to the fighting.

The chief of the Bugti tribe,Nawab Akbar Bugti, however, insists that the military operation jointly beingcarried out by the Army and the Air Force since December 15, 2005, had killedover 300 people, mostly women and children. The Baloch leader added further thatover 50,000 regular Army troops are currently deployed in Balochistan, inaddition to over 30,000 personnel of the paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC). Thelatest phase of violence has taken a serious turn because the military operationhas been extended beyond the Kohlu area. Though official circles are emphasisingthat military action is limited to the dissidents’ camps and the tribesmenattacking government installations or the troops, unofficial and independentsources talk of the brutal impact on ordinary people who have been forced tomigrate to other areas. The information on military operations being provided bythe Army’s spokesman is not corroborated by independent news sources.

The stepping up of militaryactivity in Balochistan appears to herald the collapse of the peace process thatwas initiated by the government last year, which was meant to push for apolitical solution. Despite the fact that the Parliamentary Sub-Committee onBalochistan constituted by the centre had already submitted its recommendationsto the government in June 2005, no step has been taken towards theirimplementation. The Committee had made sweeping proposals for enhancement of gasroyalties to the Province and clearance of arrears, amendments to the ConcurrentList, changes in the National Finance Commission Award, provincial autonomy, andthe development of gas-rich areas. Unfortunately, however, the politicalnegotiations track is dead, and the only dialogue being conducted in Balochistanis the dialogue of opposing firepower. Where that will lead can only make oneshudder.

Most political observers inPakistan disagree with the commando-style handling of the Balochistan situationby Musharraf and fear that the use of brute force may inflame the state ofaffairs and the localised insurgency could escalate into a major securitynightmare for the General, who comes from the Special Service Group (SSG) of theArmy. The Baloch nationalists are clearly gaining support against a militarydictator who they accuse of exploiting their rich natural resources withoutproviding benefits to the Baloch population. As a matter of fact, the ‘armedterrorists’ in Balochistan, Musharraf often refers to, are not foreigners butPakistani citizens. Observers say they may well be highly unpatriotic, eventreasonous, yet they are still to be accorded the rights due to any otherPakistani citizen. They argue that the mistake made by the establishment in EastPakistan is now being repeated in Balochistan.

The matter of solving theBalochistan dispute is no more about settling a single problem, such as theexploitation of the province’s natural resources, the setting up of newcantonments, or the continuing hostility and tension surrounding the natural gasreserves. The matter is fundamentally about Pakistan’s basic politicaldirection, whether or not the country is to become a stable and prospectivelyprogressive state. If this is, in fact, the case, the only way to deal with theproblem is to give the people of Balochistan the rights that have been denied tothem. The use of brute force will only cause further alienation, leaving themwith no option but to fight for their genuine economic and political rights. Theclock is ticking and the Musharraf regime must move swiftly for a politicalsituation, where the strong are just and the weak secure.

Amir Mir is Senior Pakistani journalist affiliated with Pakistani Monthly Newslineand Dubai-based Daily Gulf News. Courtesy, the South AsiaIntelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.