Constructive Strategic Partnership

We in China are watching closely India's debate on the United States'National Missile Defence (NMD) system. We feel many Indians believe themissile shield will impact negatively on India's security, albeitindirectly. This Indian view holds that since NMD is not directed againstIndia, nor can its missiles target the US territory, India has entered intothe NMD debate because of the implications it might have on the Indo-Chinarelationship.

Implicit in this is the assumption that because China is astrident critic of NMD, it would counter Washington's move for a missileshield either through a strengthening of its nuclear arsenal or/andproliferating missiles to other countries, more particularly to India'sarch rival, Pakistan. Consequently, it is argued India would have no choicebut to match China in the acquisition of nuclear arms.

But India's approach to NMD has been perceived differently in China. Forone, it is believed that India couldn't have vehemently criticised the USbecause it is the sole superpower of the world, nor could it haveanatagonised a country which is its number one trading partner and amongits potential big investors. Many analysts here consequently think NewDelhi's positive stance on NMD has been determined by the desire to conducta nuclear dailogue with the US and leverage for itself a more favourableplace in the new nuclear world order. What has to be now closely watched isthe kind of parley George Bush's envoy, Richard Armitage, has in Delhi.

Obviously, the way India nuances its stance on NMD would determine itsrelationship with China and also the US. But at the outset a fewmisconceptions need to be addressed. First, it is inappropriate to includeChina in the nuclear matrix because it neither has the intention nor thepotential to escalate the arms race. Even were we to assume that Beijingdecides to react and proliferate nuclear weapons, there is absolutely noreason for India to feel threatened.

Why?

This is because China's improbable response to NMD would entail developingmissiles which have the potential of penetrating the nuclear missileshield. In this category will fall only those missiles which can reach theUS territory, or what are long-range missiles. This should cheer India.

The second reason why India shouldn't feel nervous about China stems fromBeijing's desire to foster good relations with India as well as Pakistan.Since economic development will continue to be China's top priority, apeaceful periphery is absolutely crucial for achieving this goal.

India's rapid economic growth and steady military modernisation has seen itflaunt its muscles in the Indian ocean. It has, for instance, conductedjoint military exercise with Japan and other Southeast Asian countrieslocated near China, and also carried out nuclear tests and experimentedwith the longer versions of Agni missiles. China, obviously, hasn't beenoblivious to these developments. Despite its concern, Beijing reactedcalmly. The only exception was India's nuclear tests which Delhi portrayedto have been conducted because of the threat from China.

Beijing played down most of these developments because it believed thatIndia wanted to emerge as a key player in international politics. China'spolicy towards a rising India has been influenced by the desire toestablish good neighbourly relationship as well as a "constructivestrategic partnership." This framework hasn't been changed and wouldn't be,I believe, even if India emerges stronger. Even Chinese leader Li Pengdeclared in Delhi early this year that India posed no threat to China.

Also, China prefers to separate its relationship with India from that withthe United States. This must be emphasised because many tend to think NewDelhi's stance on NMD could lead to an Indo-US alliance and, with GeorgeBush giving up on Clinton's China-centred Asian policy, India could becomea counterpoise to China. I think things haven't reached such a pass that weshould talk about a strategic triangular relationship involving Delhi,Beijing and Washington. In the last 50 years, the three countries have beenin relatively independent orbits. With India's growing capabilities, Chinawould like to talk to New Delhi directly on issues of common interest anddisputes. But what direction this relationship will take has to be seen.

(The author is Associate Professor, School of International Studies,PekingUniversity, China)