Congress Placed Comfortably

A last-minute alliance between the incumbent AGP and the aspiring BJPin Assam could not save the situation. Going by the mood of voters, the AGP-BJP allianceis likely to win in 27-32 constituencies with a vote share of 37.1 per cent. The Congressseems to be comfortably placed to form the next government in the state. In fact, theparty is likely to register its best performance since 1985, winning 75-80 seats andpolling 41.1 pe rcent of the popular vote. That is a gain of 41-46 seats in comparison toits tally in the 1996 Assembly elections.

Despite the widespread anti-incumbency phenomenon against the rulingAGP government and the opposition from the state BJP leaders, the BJP’s centralleadership forged an alliance with the AGP. Another blow came with Haranya Bhattacharyyabreaking away and forming the Assam BJP. The new unit is likely to cut into the BJP’svote share in lower Assam and Barak valley.

Going by the findings of the Outlook-CMS survey, the BJP seems to havecommitted a mistake by entering into an alliance with the AGP. Had the BJP contested theelections on its own, it could have claimed better poll results. Now the party is likelyto win 18-20 seats against 33 seats in which it was leading in the 1999 Lok Sabhaelections. Interestingly, 35 per cent of the voters feel that the Congress is likely tobenefit from an alliance between the AGP and BJP. A post-poll alliance would have beenmore advantageous for the BJP rather than a pre-poll alliance.

The BJP has also erred in the selection of constituencies. Of the 42seats from which BJP is contesting, 28 seats fall in upper Assam where the Congress islikely to perform very well. In the Barak valley where the BJP’s chances are bright,the party could manage only 11 seats.

However, the Congress is not free from its share of troubles. Fearingdissidence from aspirants who could not make it to the official list, the party had tohold back the list of candidates till the last moment. The party will have to contend withrebel candidates in 15 to 20 seats. However, the party will still make it with acomfortable majority.

An overwhelming two-thirds of voters, cutting across party loyaltiesare unhappy with the performance of the state government. In fact in none of the otherstates going to polls, the anti-establishment undercurrent is so strong. No wonder the AGPwill be lucky to win 10 seats against the 59 it currently holds. It is not surprising thatthree out of four voters want a new government in the state.

A major dimension to elections in Assam is the fear of violence onpolling day. Nearly, a fifth of voters are apprehensive of violence and a low voterturnout will benefit the AGP-BJP combine.