Civil War?

The whole nation was numbed by the September 22 suicide bombing on churchgoers on Sunday morning in Peshawar. The death toll so far is 81 but is likely to rise as many of the 120 injured are in critical condition. No one has so far professed responsibility but some of the foreign news agencies maintain that Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan has claimed responsibility and has threatened to attack non-Muslim targets from now on till the CIA sponsored attacks on North Waziristan in Pakistan’s tribal belt do not stop.

The attack has come in the midst of hectic parleys amongst the policy-makers and the political parties to negotiate with Taliban. Just a few days back, heads of all the major political parties met in Islamabad under Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and unanimously agreed to conduct negotiations with the Taliban. The Taliban responded four days later by killing a major general in Upper Dir near the Pak-Afghan border and the Taliban spokesman said that the war will continue till a ceasefire is agreed to.

It is a very helpless situation for the people. Everybody is scared of suicide bombers and it is a known fact that many a time the police permit the bomber to enter the targeted area to save their own life after they are shown the suicide vest. The Peshawar police chief after the September 22 attack on the Protestant Church himself told the media that suicide bombers cannot be stopped.

The political parties have virtually stopped their public activities and the last May General Elections were conspicuous by the absence of any public meetings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan. The only parties that could openly campaign were the ones that either favoured Islamization and the Taliban or talked about negotiating with the latter. This shows the success of Taliban’s appeasement policy and one really wonders as to what the policy-makers are going to negotiate about in such a situation.

The militants control all the seven agencies of the tribal areas six of which border Afghanistan. They use these to launch attacks in Afghanistan and also Pakistan. The courts in Pakistan and the police have no jurisdiction over these areas. One of the reasons for the Taliban also attacking Pakistan, which was not the case earlier, is the fact the army occupied the South Waziristan agency and continues to do so. The ISAF and particularly the Americans desire the army to take a similar action in North Waziristan where most of the militants are now concentrated. The Pakistan government along with the army is reluctant to do so for two reasons: one that they do not desire to annoy the Taliban further as the country is already paying a heavy price for the earlier military action which is widely regarded as an action taken under American pressure; and secondly they calculate that the Taliban will eventually be able to vanquish the Afghan forces and come to power after the withdrawal of American troops next year. They want to see a friendly government in power in Kabul which is regarded in Pakistan as the 'strategic depth doctrine' in the context of tension with India on the eastern border.

The Taliban want an end to the drone attacks. The Pakistan Air Force has the capacity to do so but the armed forces realize the repercussions of downing the CIA drones. This is thus one key demand that cannot be met. They then want all their prisoners to be released. The government for some reason has already started the process without even the start of parleys and without securing anything in return. In fact, the Taliban also are holding on to many kidnapped personnel, including an American soldier and an American contractor kidnapped from Lahore, and a few other European nationals. The Taliban prisoners could have been released in return for at least these abductees but this was not done.

Taliban profess to stand for complete Islamization of the society. It is a different matter that their actions hardly conform to any morality. Nevertheless, this is their major political demand and any negotiations with them may result in intense pressure to adopt Shariah. The governments in Islamabad are in the habit of yielding to such religious pressure since the inception of the country but it is leading to more and more fissures in the national polity.

Pakistan is a huge country in terms of population and the concept of Shariah differs amongst its 180 million people. The Taliban represent the Deobandi school of thought which conflicts directly with the Barelvis, although both belong to the same Sunni sect. The Shias of course are heretics in their eyes and deserve to be killed at sight. The Wahabis represented by the Saudis are also an important player. So, whose Shariah is going to be implemented if the government succumbs to the Taliban insistence to do so? It is going to be a nightmarish experience for the country if an attempt is ever made to Talibanize the country and may result in a civil war like condition which it is already partly experiencing.

Anees Jillani, a lawyer based in Pakistan, is author of the book Advance Towards Democracy.