Bye Bye Mush

President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is presently on a visit to WestEurope. He arrived in Brussels on January 20, 2008. After Belgium, he wasscheduled to visit France and the UK and address the World Economic Forum atDavos in Switzerland before returning to Pakistan. He is expected to meet MsCondoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, at Davos. His programme, drawnaround his participation in the Davos Forum, had reportedly been drawn up beforethe assassination of  Mrs Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, atRawalpindi on December 27, 2007.

He has stuck to his travel plans despite the wave of suicide terrorismsweeping across Pakistan, the public anger over the shortages in the supply ofessential commodities such as wheat, flour and oil, the growing threat topolitical stability arising from the till-now uncontrollable activities of theTehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan headed by Baitullash Mehsud of South Waziristan andthe persisting Western dilemma  over how to prevent Al Qaeda and pro-AlQaeda organisations from assuming control over Islamabad just as they assumedcontrol over Kabul in September 1996, and taking possession of its nucleararsenal and material. This shows his anxiety over the inexorable erosion of hiscredibility in the eyes of the West and the need felt by him to counter this.His credibility in Pakistan  is already weakened and the present weakeningof his credibility abroad could make his position increasingly untenable even ifhe sticks to his public commitment to ensure that the forthcoming electionswould be free and fair and to work with whoever comes to power as a result ofthe elections.

It is clear that the future stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan and theultimate outcome of the so-called war against global jihadi terrorism are goingto be decided in the Pashtun homelands of the Federally-Administered TribalAreas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan and theadjoining Afghan territory. Neither the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan northe Pakistan Army have been able to come out with a workable strategy whichwould effectively neutralise the rainbow coalition of jihadis, which has beenoperating from the tribal belt and which is determined to defeat the US-ledcoalition on the one side and the Pakistan Army on the other. Such a strategyhas to simultaneously address the legitimate concerns and anger of the Pashtunsover matters such as the Pakistani commando action in the Lal Masjid inIslamabad in July last and the large civilian casualties in the Pashtun areas ofAfghanistan due to what is perceived as the disproportionate use of force by theUS-led coalition.

The rise of the jihadi monster now seeking to spread havoc across this regionwas unwittingly facilitated by the unwise policies of the West in general andthe US in particular. These policies were based on a  hotchpotch ofopportunistic tactics, without any strategic lucidity. The failure of eachunwise tactic to produce results led to even more unwise tactics. Initially,there was an unwarranted over-lionisation of Musharraf, who used the Westernpolitical and material support not to crush the jihadis as he claimed to bedoing, but to decimate the political opposition to him at home in order toensure his continuance in power.

His over-focus on this political opposition to him and his under-focus on thespreading jihadi fire from the Pashtun belt have created a situation wherePakistan has become a volcano, which could explode any time. By the time the USrealised the folly of its over-lionisation of Musharraf and embarked on a policyof cutting him down to size without seeming to do so by encouraging  ademocratic process and facilitating the re-emergence of the political class asthe rulers and policy-makers of the country, Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadiorganisations had developed a capability to frustrate the US not onlyoperationally in the tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistanborder, but politically in the rest of Pakistan.No political leader, who isperceived as enjoying the confidence of the US, is safe from assassination.

Benazir paid a price  for the perception that she was the new card ofthe US to counter the jihadis. Every political leader in Pakistan is afraidwhether the elections could be held as scheduled and, if they are, whether he orshe would continue to live in order to be able to contest, win and come topower. The entire political process in Pakistan is at the mercy of the jihaditerrorists. Baitullah Mehsud is already threatening to step up the suicideattacks through his volunteers if the Army does not call off its operationsagainst the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is not an empty threat. If he carriesit out, there will be more12/27s making the holding of free, fair and peacefulpolls even more difficult than it is today.

The time has come for the West to come to a parting of the ways withMusharraf. The present jihadi chaos cannot be reversed and the politicalsituation normalised so long as he continues in power. The question is no longerwhether he should go, but when and how--even before the elections or after theelections, if so, how soon after the elections? This question has to be raisedand debated. It has to be made clear to Musharraf that there cannot be even asemblance of normalcy in Pakistan so long as he sticks to power by hook or bycrook. His perceived utility in the so-called war on terrorism has beencompromised by his manipulatory policies.

Musharraf has always been known as a manipulator par excellence. He survivedin power so long by manipulating public opinion and political forces at home andabroad. His non-apologetic statements during the course of his present travelsin West Europe show that he still believes  he can continue to survive inpower in Pakistan through skilful manipulation of Western fears about theprospects of a victory of the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi forces and their gettingcontrol of the nuclear arsenal and material. It has to be made clear to him thatthe time for manipulation is over and that the time for exit has come. Thesooner he announces his intention and plans to quit the better it will be forhim, Pakistan and the international community. The Western policy of continuingto swim with Musharraf despite its reservations over his policies and actionscould prove catastrophic, if not reversed quickly.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai.