Bull's Eye!

Indeed, in caste terms, the key reason for Lalu Prasad's defeat was that thedefections came not from the Yadavs -- a majority of whom held fast, somebecause they had enjoyed the fruits of power and the others because they feltlife under JD(U) leader and chief minister designate Nitish Kumar would be worsefor them -- but from among the many small communities that make up the ExtremelyBackward Castes (EBCs). And in the language of democratic politics, people votedfor parivartan -- change -- the most heard word across the state in theseelections.

The overwhelming mandate in terms of seats they gave the NDA was also anindication that they did not want to leave the question of whether there wouldbe a government -- or whose it would be -- to the Governor. Buta Singh'sdissolution of the state assembly, which the Supreme Court has described as"unconstitutional" and the calling of fresh elections, clearly playedits role in the definitive vote and its division into two clearly polarisedcamps.

If 15 years of life under Lalu Prasad have changed the social dynamics -- anddiscourse -- of the state forever, the task before Nitish Kumar will be as muchto deliver on the development agenda as to ensure that the upper castes -- whohave voted for the combine -- don't reverse the logic of Mandal, the empowermentof the backward and scheduled castes. Speaking to Outlook on the eve ofthe last day of counting, Nitish Kumar described the rainbow coalition of uppercastes and the backward Kurmi-Koeri combine as an instance of an end to theforward-backward conflict in Bihar and part of a process of evolution. But inthe upper caste Bhoomihar village of Rampur Chauram, near Arwal in south centralBihar, residents stressed, "We are just giving Nitish Kumar a certificatefor five years -- if he does not deliver for us, we will toss him out. And itwill be much simpler to get rid of Nitish." A reminder not just that hewould owe his victory to upper caste support, but that he would be on notice.

Of course, initially, the upper castes will give Nitish Kumar an easy ride:Senior police sources told Outlook that a victory for NDA would ensurethat the Ranvir Sena -- a Bhoomihar-led upper caste extremist group whichoperates in south central Bihar -- which had been planning action against theMaoists after the recent Jehanabad jailbreak would desist from any immediateretaliatory action.

Indeed, after congratulating Nitish, Lalu Prasad alerted him to the dangersahead of ruling with BJP support. He was quick to point out that those who haddeserted him -- a reference to the EBCs -- would realise, within a few months,that they had been fooled, that Nitish Kumar was only an instrument of the uppercaste desire to regain the dominant position they once had in Bihar society.Whether that will happen within a few months or not remains to be seen, but thefact that the BJP will expect him to heed it is already becoming clear: Seniorparty leader Sushma Swaraj said that the party expected him to appoint a deputyCM from their MLAs, but when a question on the subject was put to Nitish Kumar,he dodged a direct reply, just as he avoided a question on whether the bahubalis-- the musclemen with criminal backgrounds, who have played a large part in thisvictory, would be made ministers.

If Lalu Prasad has paid the price of anti-incumbency and the failure todeliver on the logical corollary to giving the people a voice, the role of theElection Commission in the NDA victory deserves a special mention: On the onehand, voters across Muzaffarpur, Motihari, Vaishali, Patna and Jehanabaddistricts through which this correspondent travelled in the countdown to thecounting on November 22 were all praise for the conduct of the elections whichwere held in a sanitised atmosphere. On the other, there was virtually novillage that this correspondent visited where residents did not complain aboutthe deletion of genuine voters from the electoral rolls -- ranging from 10 to300 per booth. The EC has said that it removed the names of close to 20 lakh"bogus" voters from the lists and added four lakh names -- the resultwas that many with election IDs were turned away from the booths as their nameshad been cancelled from the lists.

An election observer told this correspondent, "I can't say that therewas any design but yes, they were done in haste and I have come across manygenuine complaints in my area." Lalu Prasad was quick to allege that amajority of those disenfranchised were his voters, but it is of course a mootpoint now. The thumping majority in terms of seats, however, hides the realstory: the vote share, which might, on the surface, appear paradoxical. While this correspondent is still to look at the detailed figures, as reported by NDTV, Paswan'sLJP has actually almost held on to its vote share, the JD(U)-BJP combine hasgained around 11% and even the RJD-Congress combine has increased its share byaround 3%. The main losers have been the camp of Independents and the others, largely the bahubalimusclemen, losing 14% or so -- apart from the clear polarisation, their havingjoined the rival camps, with the majority going to JD(U)-BJP, obviously played asignificant part, and the change in alliance arithmetic would also account forsome of the vote swings.

[The above vote share figures were based on NDTV coverage - Arun Jaitley and Kapil Sibbal discussed these very figures in NDTV studios. This was before the final set of figures were available from the Election Commission. In stead of correcting the copy filed earlier, and in the absence of the EC figures, the details of the figures from NIC are now available as a link from the bottom of this story as per which NDA gains 50 seats and 10.26% in votes, SDF loses 23 seats and 0.94% voteshare, LJP+ loses 19 seats and 1.08% vote share while Others lose 8 seats and 9.42% vote share.]

But even as these issues are debated and the election results are analysed,all eyes will be on Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, the man he has dislodged --whether the one is up to the job and the other capable of a second coming. ForNitish Kumar, who will be sworn in as chief minister on November 24 in Patna'shistoric Gandhi Maidan, it will be a delicate balancing act -- to try andreplace Lalu Prasad as the almost significant backward leader while keeping theupper castes in good humour, a task which, in a caste-ridden society, will testhis political skills to the utmost.

Thus far, Nitish Kumar modestly telling journalists outside his officialresidence in Delhi that it was "a victory for the people of Bihar",has promised "good governance" and an equal share for every community.Lalu Prasad, on his part, emerged from the two-storeyed chief minister'sofficial residence on Patna's Anne Road to concede defeat, congratulate Nitish-- whom he described as his "younger brother"-- and promise him"constructive cooperation", and express relief that he had beenrelieved of a "burden". But beyond the sound bytes, the fact is thatneither man, once close friends and comrades-in-arms, now the victor and thevanquished, did not attack each other. Both appeared conscious that this was ahistoric moment, the passing of an era.