Balloons

He is at it again, and again it is working. He is launching colorful balloons, and the whole world islooking on with rapture and wonderment.

Ariel Sharon needs to divert attention. His popularity has dropped in recent opinion polls. The Genevainitiative has captured the national and international agenda. The police investigations into his corruptionaffairs have reappeared in the headlines. Army and Security Services officers have criticized him publicly. Hehas been accused of immobility, foot-dragging, the lack of a plan.

So he is launching balloons: "Unilateral steps". Sensation! "In the future we shall not bein all the places we are now". Shock! "We shall be moving settlements". Uproar!

He has sent Ehud Olmert to exercise his jaw on every talk-show, warning against the terrible danger of a"bi-national state". His plan, Olmert declares, will ensure the existence of a "Jewishstate", 80% of whose population will be Jewish. Since already more than 78% of Israel's citizens areJewish, this must mean that densely populated Palestinian territories would not be annexed. Sharon's officehas leaked reports that Olmert is echoing Sharon's own view, and that Sharon himself will make a sensationalstatement to this effect next week in Herzlia.

General turmoil! The Geneva Initiative is almost forgotten. All the pundits are busy with wild speculation:What is Sharon up to? What does he mean? What is he going to do? Is Bush compelling him to change his spots?

Olmert's conversion from screeching hawk to cooing dove has been all the more convincing because at thesame time, quite by accident, he has been forced to accede to an European demand to mark the "place oforigin" on all Israeli exports to Europe. This is meant to block preferential customs treatment for theproducts of the settlements. The settlers have started a furious campaign against him. They have plastered thewalls of Jerusalem with posters showing Olmert stamping settlement products with a Nazi-style yellow star ofDavid, with the word "Jude" on it. (For good measure, they have put my picture on the poster aswell, just to show who is pulling the strings.)

So now it is clear: Olmert is a dove, a reincarnation of the Prophet Elijah, announcing (according toJewish tradition) the coming of Sharon, the Messiah.

The leaders of the Labor Party are already taking the nylon covers off their ministerial suits. Any momentnow, they believe, Sharon will call on them to take the places of the extreme right-wing ministers in hisgovernment. Shimon Peres is about to fulfil his dream and become a minister again.

Who would have believed it! Sharon is the Israeli de Gaulle, after all! Peace is on the way!

All this confirms the old American adage: A sucker is born every minute.

I have already warned a dozen times: Don't pay attention to what Sharon says, pay attention to what Sharondoes. His pronouncements can be ignored, they serve only to fulfil the tactical requirements of the moment.But his actions are very, very important.

And his actions are quite clear: The Wall is being extended at a frenzied pace. In the Sharon tradition, itis creating "Facts on the Ground." The Palestinian territory is being cut into ribbons. Before oureyes, isolated Palestinian enclaves are appearing, each of them an open air prison. And while the army isremoving one uninhabited mobile home in one "illegal" hilltop outpost, the government is pushing theenlargement of the settlements by all available means.

This is a vigorous campaign, employing all arms of the government. Only a person completely cut off fromwhat's happening in the occupied territories can claim that things are "frozen". Only a personliving in the virtual world of the media could believe that Sharon has no plan.

He does have a plan, the same one that he has been following for decades. His and Olmert's statements donot contradict it, quite the contrary. Here are its basic principles:

- "Unilateral steps": There will be no peace agreement with the Palestinians. They will beimprisoned behind the walls and the fences, a continuation of the occupation by other means.

- "A state with an 80% Jewish majority": All sparsely populated Palestinian territories will beannexed. That will include half the West Bank (the former Area C), all the major highways, the entire Jordanvalley, many of the olive groves and fields of the Palestinian villages (but not the villages themselves.)

- "Painful concessions": Israel will give up the Palestinian population centers, towns and blocsof Palestinian villages (the former Areas A and B) and most of the Gaza Strip. All the enclaves together willamount to some 45% of the West Bank. Together with the Gaza Strip, they will constitute only some 10-12% ofthe original territory of Palestine before 1948.

- "A Palestinian state": Sharon is ready - indeed, keen - to have these enclaves called "aPalestinian state". This will free Israel from taking any responsibility for the population. If theystarve or decide to move elsewhere - so much the better.

- "Moving settlements": The dozens of small settlements built in the Palestinian populationcenters will be transferred to the areas that will be annexed to Israel, enlarging the Jewish component.

- "The terrorism will continue": This will not end the war. Indeed, Sharon and his people have nointerest in ending it. As far as they are concerned, it can go on forever. The Palestinians will always beblamed. The redeployment will make life much easier for the army, since there will no longer be a need todevote substantial forces to the defense of isolated settlements.

This is the opposite of the Geneva Initiative, which is based on the belief that an agreement with thePalestinians can be achieved. It is also the opposite of the Road Map, to which both sides still pay lipservice, while treating it as a whim of President Bush that has been forsaken by Bush himself. Sharon"accepted" it at the time - with 14 reservations that emptied it of all meaning. In practice, he didnot take even the first step along this road (any more than the Palestinians did).

The peace plan of Sharon and Olmert proclaims the continuation of the war against the Palestinian people.It is a provocation to the United States and world public opinion.

How will it affect opinion in Israel? Perhaps it will divert into another channel the growing longing forpeace, which found some expression in the Geneva Initiative. Sharon and Olmert play upon two powerfultendencies in the Israeli subconscious: (a) racist attitudes towards Arabs, which undermine belief in thepossibility of peace with them, and (b) the desire for a Jewish state, without Goyim (non-Jews) in general andArabs in particular.

Some say that the Sharon initiative is nothing but media spin. Just another of Sharon's utterances thathave little to do with reality. But anyone who sees the walls and fences that are now going up, will recognizethe new reality that is being created.