AIADMK Set to Stage Return

With the TMC joining the AIADMK alliance and the MDM opting out of theDMK alliance, Jayalalitha is set to bounce back to power. As of end-April, the AIADMK-ledalliance looks set to come back to power. The alliance is likely to win 165-175 seat witha vote share of 44.3 per cent. The DMK-led alliance is likely to win 60-65 seats with avote share of 40.8 per cent. The ground swell for Jayalalitha is positive and much widerthan is believed and even more, she continues to improve her hold. In fact herdisqualification from contesting election has proved to be a shot-in-the-arm and she canseek the sympathy of voters.

The AIADMK has a relatively higher percentage of voters among rural andfemale voters and in both the cases, it has more voters than the DMK. The percentage ofundecided voters and those not planning to vote is also relatively high among rural andfemale voters. The lead of the AIADMK will depend upon the undecided voters and theturnout of women voters. As of end April, 8 per cent of the voters are still not sureabout their voting preference.

There is no evidence of a wave in favour of either alliance. Thealliance with the better chemistry is likely to emerge victorious. Jayalalitha had veryskillfully sewed up an alliance with the PMK, TMC, Congress, CPI, CPM and some regionalparties. The DMK’s tough posture resulted in the PMK snapping its alliance with theDMK and joining the AIADMK alliance. The PMK’s exit would result in significantreversals for the DMK in the Vanniyar dominated areas. The DMK received a further blowwhen the MDMK snapped its ties with the DMK over the selection of constituencies.

In view of the above it is not suprising that close to 42 per cent ofthe voters think the AIADMK is likely to benefit from the PMK and MDMK walking out of theDMK alliance. However 15 per cent of the voters think the DMK is likely to benefit fromsuch a situation.

The race for Chief Ministership in Tamil Nadu is essentially a twohorse race. Despite Jayalalitha’s disqualification from contesting the elections,nearly 47 per cent think she is likely to be the next Chief Minister. However 44 per centfavour Karnunanidhi. Jayalalitha’s assertion that she would be the CM if her party isvoted to power seems to have infused confidence among voters.

There is no evidence of an anti-incumbency phenomenon in Tamil Nadu. 43per cent of the voters are happy with the performance of the DMK government against 46 percent who are unhappy with its performance.

Surprisingly, corruption is not an issue on the eve of the elections.While 35 per cent of the voters think corruption is an issue, an equal percentage thinkotherwise.