The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) says that nothing but its proposal for an Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) should be discussed at the negotiating table. Thegovernment insists that parallel talks on a final solution should also be discussed. The stalemate continues amidst a fragile ceasefire and a tottering economy, the revival of which largely depends on the resumption of the talks.
The situation is so desperate that even a minor LTTE compromise is hailed as a major breakthrough.
The talks between the United National Front government of Ranil Wickremesinghe and the LTTE broke down in April last year with the rebels accusing the thengovernment of not honouring its pledges with regard to rehabilitation and reconstruction in the war-ravaged North and East. Many an attempt was made to kick-start or push-start the peace process, but the LTTE held on to its position. A breakthrough came when, in October 2003, the LTTE made its ISGA proposals known.
Though the proposals were too suicidal for the government to adopt in toto, it agreed to discuss them. Both thegovernment and the LTTE were set for talks, but then President Chandrika Kumaratunga struck. She took over three key portfolios, including Defence, setting off a political crisis which culminated in the dissolution of Parliament and a new coalitiongovernment being elected to office.
Since then, much blood has flowed under the bridge and many an attempt has been washed away by political undercurrents - with a split in the LTTE further complicating the search for peace.
Six months after the election victory that failed to give the new United People's Freedom Alliancegovernment a clear parliamentary majority, the government is faced with a situation where, on the one hand, it has to cope with a factional war, a fragile ceasefire and a faltering peace process and, on the other, has to grapple with a worsening economic crisis and plummeting public confidence.
With the world oil prices reaching 55 US dollars, the government is wilting under public pressure created by the spiralling cost of living. It is the economic factor that is pushing thegovernment to brush aside threats from its coalition partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), and go for peace talks and celebrate this as a major breakthrough to win international aid. Whether the talks end in success or failure does not matter. What matters is the resumption of talks - a sort of publicity photo-op with thegovernment and the LTTE delegations shaking hands. That, the government believes, will pave the way for the international community to release at least a part of the aid it promised at the Tokyo conference in 2003.
This appears to be the strategy of the government, which now enjoys a majority in Parliament after the Ceylon Workers Congress, a kingmaker party representing the estate population, aligned itself with the ruling coalition.
The President appears to be playing her cards close to the chest and placing her aces one by one on the table. She wants to tell her southern constituency that hers is not a policy of 'peace at any cost' while sending a message to the LTTE that she is willing to compromise.
Her first card was the formation of the National Council for Peace and Reconciliation (NCPR) - which was supposed to be an all-party body, but could not be called that because the main opposition - the United National Party (UNP), the Tamil National Alliance and the Buddhist monks' party the Jathika Hela Urumaya - boycotted the inauguration on October 4. The LTTE dismissed the NCPR as a time-buying gimmick or a delaying tactic.
However, the President was unfazed. She breathed an air of success or a sigh of relief because the hardline JVP made its presence felt in a big way in the new peace body.
The once-bitten-twice-shy UNP, which appeared to have adopted a policy of mistrust towards Kumaratunga after she went back on her promise and threw it out of office, however, pledged to support thegovernment's peace moves.
Addressing the inaugural session of the NCPR, the President had reiterated her government's commitment to end the 20-year-old conflict by peaceful means and invited the LTTE to resume talks on establishing a federal state. She said hergovernment was ready to negotiate on the setting up of the ISGA - but there should be parallel talks on a final deal. "We require a commitment from the LTTE that the interim administration as well as the final solution would be based on the Oslo declaration, which stipulates that a federal solution should be sought within a united Sri Lanka," she said, giving an indication of the shape of hergovernment's counterproposals, about which very little is known.
Government spokesman Mangala Samaraweera would only say that the counterproposals are ready and waiting. But those in the know say thegovernment's counterproposals are nothing but a position paper that spells out what the LTTE wants and thegovernment's response to such demands.
With the LTTE insisting on its pound of flesh over its ISGA proposal even after the President's NCPR speech, thegovernment was disappointed, if not desperate. In the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation that ensued, the first to blink was the LTTE. Thegovernment was jubilant when LTTE 'spokesman', Daya Master, told Associated Press that the LTTE was willing to discuss thegovernment's counter proposals. The Colombo-based media ran banner headlines, describing the LTTE's softening of its stance as a major breakthrough. Ingovernment quarters this was welcomed as a dramatic breakthrough. But the jubilation was short-lived when the LTTE's 'political wing' leader S. P. Thamilselvan, who is visiting European nations on a study tour of forms of federalism, made a hurried call to protest the remarks Daya Master had made and resumed the eyeball game. This time the LTTE wants thegovernment to blink.
Although, the LTTE has gone back to its nothing-but-ISGA position, the Daya Master-slip-of-the-tongue remark gave an indication that the rebel leadership was ready to hear anygovernment response or proposal when ISGA was being discussed. This was exactly what Norway's special peace envoy, Erik Solheim, has conveyed to thegovernment. Solheim said the LTTE's demand for ISGA was not a "take it or leave it position." It is, however, a demand it insists should be discussed.
One UPFA source said: "Agreeing to talk on the ISGA does not mean the governmentaccepts the proposal in toto. It only means the government will give ear to what the LTTE has to say on the proposals and give its own position. What is good and acceptable will be given. That again would have to be within the parameters spelt out by President Kumaratunga."
It is against this backdrop that the government is now planning to come out with another strategy, brushing aside fears that the ISGA would lead to a separate state and threats by the JVP to the President that it would leave thegovernment if the talks are based only on ISGA. President Kumaratunga is expected to consult the NCPR this week and outline an elaborate policy framework to take the peace process forward. She is likely to spell out her formula in an address to the nation either before she leaves for India early next month or after her return.
Adding strength to her position is the international support for the peace process and the world community's pressure on the LTTE. During meetings with officials of Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch and the International Commission of Jurists, the touring Thamilselvan delegation was pushed to the ropes and forced to defend the LTTE when these groups urged the LTTE to stop political killings and child recruitment.
But the LTTE has mastered the art of weathering international criticism. It has proved it is a 'good boy' because it has not resumed the war. It has also mastered the art of violating the ceasefire agreement and still claiming that it is committed to the truce. In effect, it is holding thegovernment to ransom and incrementally obtaining what it wants. The UPFA government, which accused the previous UNF regime of conceding too much to the LTTE, is now forced to follow its predecessor's policies.
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The so-called prisoner swap which took place in Trincomalee last week was a case in point. The two homeguards who were arrested and detained by the LTTE were released only after thegovernment acceded to the LTTE's demands and released ten Tiger cadres from a governmentjail. The de jure position is that the detainees have been released on bail - thegovernment court acted in the case of the LTTE detainees and the LTTE court in the case of the homeguards.
A flip side of this episode brings forth a silver lining to the dark cloud, demonstrating that both thegovernment and the LTTE can do business together.
But what is complicating the issue is the challenge from the 'Colonel' Karuna group, which has struck an alliance with the Eelam National Democratic Liberal Front, a group, which was once said to have been backed by the Indian intelligence. The challenge to the LTTE also came from T. Anandasangaree, the sidelined vice president of the Tamil United Liberation Front. Anandasanagaree, in an open letter to Prabhakaran, urged the Tiger leader to stop the fratricidal war and to be pragmatic with regard to his ISGA proposals.
The Karuna group, which in a recent statement announced its entry into mainstream politics, called on the Tamil people to unite to defeat Prabhakaran's dictatorship and terrorism. It may be the case of one tiger accusing the other tiger of cannibalism, while both are cannibals. In any case, the situation in the East, especially in the Batticaloa and Ampara districts, has been worsening. With neither faction of the LTTE yet able to hold sway, the tit-for-tat political killings continue.
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The LTTE is perturbed that the Karuna group is emerging as a strong force with substantial public support in the East. Irked by this reality, the Tiger leadership has asked the Tamil National Alliance Members of Parliament in the two districts to intensify their campaign aimed at drawing the people away from the Karuna faction. The LTTE knows that its bargaining power will be weakened if it loses control of the East.
Ameen Izzadeen is Deputy Editor, The Sunday Times, Colombo.Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.
