It has been more than two weeks since the end of the ceasefire between the government and the CommunistParty of Nepal (Maoist). When the rebels declared, on August 27, 2003, that there remained no justificationfor the seven-month-long truce, all had not seemed lost. Since they had not explicitly stated that theceasefire had ended there still seemed a hint that it was a pressure ploy to force concessions out of the government.For its part, the government once again urged the Maoists to return to the negotiating table even while itdeclared that it was ready to face any new challenge.
But the very next day, August 28, the Maoists made clear their intent when they struck in the heart ofKathmandu. Two army colonels were shot, one of them fatally, sending the Kathmandu establishment in a tizzyover what could follow. Even more brazen was the attack the next day on a former state Minister for HomeAffairs, Devendra Raj Kandel. It was during Kandel's tenure that the Nepali government had declared theMaoists 'terrorists' and announced rewards for the capture or killing of top Maoist leaders. Although Kandelsurvived the assassination attempt, there was no doubt now where the Maoists were going to focus theirattention - Kathmandu.
In fact, during the ceasefire, the Maoists had made it quite clear that Kathmandu would not be spared in thenext round of fighting, should the hostilities resume. Maoist leaders had proclaimed as much in their publicpronouncements as well as in private conversations. In the preceding seven years, the capital had seen onlyoccasional bombings, and these had not done much damage. The killings and sabotage had been overwhelminglylimited to the rural hinterland.
In a repeat of what the country saw in the initial days of the nine-month emergency imposed in November 2001,an average toll of 10 Maoists killed has been reported every day in various encounters since the breakdown ofthe peace process. There have, however, not been any major battles so far. The one exception was in thewestern Nepal district of Rolpa, in the heart of Maoist country, when a 'long-distance patrol' of a combinedforce of the Army and the armed police was pinned down in a gully by Maoists for nearly 24 hours. The governmenttroops ran out of ammunition and the Army's newly acquired night-vision helicopters had to go to the rescue.Details of this engagement are yet to be revealed by the Army, and neither have any authoritative independentreports emerged.
Besides the Rolpa encounter, the Maoist dead are accounted for in minor skirmishes. The rebels themselveshave, so far, not mounted any major attacks in the manner they did during the earlier fighting. They havestruck soft targets such as soldiers and policemen on leave or on guard duty, suspected informants amongordinary folk, and abandoned police posts. They have also laid booby traps on highways and roads, injuringsecurity personnel and civilians alike. The Maoists have also called for a three-day bandh (generalstrike) starting 18 September, and past experience suggests that this could be the occasion for greaterviolence. All in all, a strategy designed to strike terror among the general population appears to have beenadopted, and it seems to be succeeding to some extent. People in the already sparsely populated western Nepalare fleeing their homes by the thousand, with the majority going to India to find work.
To meet the new exigencies brought about by the renewed fighting, the Army has entered an expansion phase. Inthe past two years, it has already grown by 10,000 to reach 60,000. It is currently planning to add another5,000 soldiers to its force. In the field, counterinsurgency experts from the US military, numbering around50, are believed to be conducting training. But the Army's image received a severe battering when the NationalHuman Rights Commission indicted it for the massacre of 17 people in Ramechhap district in eastern Nepal, onAugust 17, 2003, the very day the Government and the Maoists sat down to the much-awaited third round oftalks. The killings, and the implied insecurity for the Maoists, were cited as one of the reasons for theMaoist withdrawal from the talks.
Much of the action is still going on in the hills and plains outside Kathmandu, but the detached complacencyof the capital's denizens has now been shattered. In the past week a series of bombs exploded, including onethat killed a schoolboy. These daring attacks have forced the government onto the back-foot, and security fortop government officials and politicians has been tightened. Security personnel have also been ordered not toventure out unless absolutely necessary. Kathmandu's security apparatus was put under the unified command of aMajor General of the Army. An 11 pm to dawn curfew was imposed in parts of the Kathmandu Valley, outside thecity limits. The capital appears to be in the grips of a siege mentality.
But that did not prevent the Maoists from shooting dead two people in a busy area on Kathmandu's outskirts onFriday, September 12. One of them was affiliated to the students' body allied to the Rastriya PrajatantraParty - the party of Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, and the other an ordinary bystander. The government'sresponse was a night time curfew in Kathmandu as well as in the twin city of Lalitpur. For now, the siegeseems complete.
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Deepak Thapa is a Kathmandu-based journalist and editor. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review ofthe South Asia Terrorism Portal
