Dusting off his jacket to smoothen the crease left behind from the three-week long impasse between Sino-Indian soldiers at their contested boundary in Ladakh, the minister for external affairs, Salman Khurshid, left for Beijing early Thursday to restore the trust and confidence in India’s ties with China—which, from all indications, appeared to have suffered a jolt.
Until Sunday, his visit to Beijing looked almost off. The Indian leadership, worried that a trip by Khurshid to China at a time when the face-off between soldiers of the two sides showed no signs of ending would have a major negative impact back home, toyed with the idea of cancelling or postponing it. The Indian ambassador in China, S. Jaishankar had made the leaders in Beijing aware of how the prolonged episode in Ladakh was being viewed by Indians and its possible negative fallout on future Sino-Indian relations. The hints from the ambassador were big enough for the Chinese to take note of. They realized that not only Khurshid’s but even Premier Li Kiqiang’s visit to India, scheduled for May 20, could be jeopardized if the impasse continued.
Advertisement
Luckily good sense prevailed and both sides reached an agreement that led to the withdrawal of their soldiers and dismantling of the temporary camps at the Daulat Beg Oldi sector in Ladakh. Indian sources agree that a deal was struck to break the impasse but argue that it was too small a price to pay to ensure that a “local issue” did not snowball into something big enough to derail the overall improvement in Sino-Indian ties. Moreover, they argue that India did not make any compromise on its core issue—that is to accept a unilateral attempt by China to alter the status quo along the contested territory.
But though the impasse has been broken, the Indian establishment is not quite sure yet as to why the Chinese did what they did. What came out of the failed flag meetings at the commanders’ level in Ladakh did not match the view that was being conveyed to the Indians by Chinese foreign ministry. This, and the army chief Gen. Bikram Singh’s own assessment, led India to believe that what was happening at Ladakh was a “local issue.”
Though the impasse continued for nearly three weeks, often embarrassing the Indian government in the face of rising opinion that a tough line was needed to deal with the Chinese, there was not a single moment when the Chinese action was seen as “threatening” to Delhi.
There are several views in South Block about the Ladakh episode. One is the argument that it was a decision taken at the local PLA commander’s level and did not have the sanction of the top leadership in Beijing. The other—which is gaining more currency now—is that this was an attempt by the new leadership in China, under President Xi Jingping and Premier Li, to bring the boundary issue back to the front burner of Sino-India ties. The previous Chinese leadership was of the view that the boundary issue could be resolved between the two sides at a later stage when both countries are prepared to strike a deal. But under Xi, the Chinese establishment seems to be keen in injecting some urgency to this long, festering problem and wants it to be taken note of, and possibly also resolved, at the highest political level.
But whatever be the reasoning behind the Chinese action, many in Delhi feel that relations between the two sides have suffered a jolt and it was time to restore the trust and confidence in the bilateral ties. In fact, this seems to be the main thrust of the message that Khurshid is likely to convey to the leadership in Beijing during his talks there.
Sources pointed out that after the first meeting between President Xi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in South Africa in March, the two sides had stressed on looking for new areas of cooperation to take the relationship forward. While referring to that spirit, Khurshid is likely to argue that the Sino-Indian ties cannot move forward in any meaningful manner unless the two sides are able to trust each other’s intentions.
While the lessons drawn from the Ladhak episode will set the tone of the foreign minister’s talks, he would also raise other issues—like more access for Indian goods into the Chinese market and significantly higher level of investment from China in India.
But since Khurshid’s presence there is also going to be used by the two sides to prepare the agenda for Premier Li’s visit to India, a likely discussion may also take place on a proposed agreement to ensure that peace and tranquillity along the contested boundaries is maintained until a final solution is reached to demarcate them.
