January 22, 2021
Login   |Register
Outlook Logo

the fully loaded magazine

Corona
  • Magazine
    • Current Issue
    • Cover Story
    • Opinion
    • Interviews
    • India
    • World
    • Sports
    • Business
    • Entertainment
    • Books
    • Poliglot
    • Previous Issues
    • Subscription
  • India
  • Cricket
  • Opinion
  • Videos
  • Photos
  • World
  • Entertainment
  • Business
  • Archives
  • Subscription
  • hindi
  • business
  • money
  • traveller
  • responsible tourism
  • Poshan
  • others
    • CSR
    • Agriculture
    • Speakout
    • Automobiles
    • Saluting the bravest
  • Login | Register
  • Current Issue
  • National
  • International
  • Business
  • Most Read
  • Features
    • Book reviews
    • Cover Stories
    • Documents
    • Essays
    • Interviews
    • Opinions
    • Portraits
    • Profiles
  • Regulars
    • Leader
    • Letters
    • Par Avion
    • Seven Days
    • Deep Throat
    • Biztro
    • Track 2
    • Eat, Pray, Live
    • The Sked
    • The Reviews
    • Trending
    • Diary
  • Sports
  • Books
  • Previous Issues
  • Follow
  •      
  • Subscribe

Arun Nehru

Website
  • Congress, Culpability And Kamal Nath
    An unqualified apology by either Sonia Gandhi or Rahul for 1984 would effectively help the party move on. So why have they not done so?
    Jun 16, 2016
    | Hartosh Singh Bal
  • 'The Gang Who Created Unrest In Punjab'
    After the assassination of Indira Gandhi, this "gang" had complete hold on the administrative setup...
    Feb 06, 2016
    | G.S. Chawla
more>>>
Magazine
  • <b>Battle worthy</b> The Bofors gun proved itself in Kargil
    ‘B’ For Bofors, ‘N’ For Nobody?
    The Bofors affair wasn’t a scam at all. It was a sting mounted by the mysterious ‘N’ of the Ardbo diaries.
    May 28, 2012
    | Mani Shankar Aiyar
more>>>
Blog
  • The Exhausting Marathon For 7 Race Course Rd
    The Exhausting Marathon For 7 Race Course Rd

    The open season is coming to an end. And in the spirit of the times, we  even have an Outlook guesstimate, and the indefatigable Arun Nehru of course is still projecting numbers similar to the TOI for the two parties:

    The three possibilities are a Congress-led coalition with Group D if the former has the numbers and can meet the requirements of the Left and the demand list of the AIADMK, which could, for a start, be the dismissal of the DMK government.

    Further, the TDP and the BJD may also need the assistance of the Congress if they have a hung Assembly in the state.All the main parties in Group D (BSP, AIADMK, TDP and BJD) could also travel to the NDA if things do not work out to their satisfaction.

    The first attempt I feel will be to forge a strong combination involving the Left and others in Group D. Attempts will be made to weaken both the UPA and the NDA by inducting the NCP and the JD(U) into this combination. At 160-plus seats they will be bigger than the Congress and the BJP but not bigger than either the UPA or the NDA.

    For full text and graphic, please see: Deccan Chronicle

    After the fourth phase, Swapan Dasgupta had the following numbers:

    One IB estimate received late last night says BJP 147, Congress 139. This may explain the stream of overtures from the Congress to the Left.

    A pollster whose conclusions are contrarian (but often accurate) says that of the 457 seats polled to date, the projections are: BJP 154 and allies 42, Congress 123 and (pre-poll allies) 24. This makes it NDA 196, UPA 147.

    ***

    MJ Akbar, as always, should be allowed the last word:

    For the rest of India, back to astrologers and bookies. Bookies are considered superior because they seem to put their money where their mouth is. A friend who was born intelligent but has grown wise over many an educational afternoon spent in the exquisite environment of the Kolkata race course, reminded me of the first law of racing. Bookies only make money when the favourite loses. What would a bookie prefer? To get it right, or to get rich? Dumb question.

    As the great Faiz Ahmed Faiz said,
    ChaNd roz aur merii jaan,
    faqt, chaNd hii roz

    May 10, 2009
  • 13 Days Before You Diss These Figures
    13 Days Before You Diss These Figures

    Arun Nehru is predicting both BJP and Congress will maintain and perhaps improve upon their 2004 Lok Sabha numbers:

    Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle. More here

    The NDTV predictions after the third and second phase incidentally stand as follows:

    Alliance
     3rd Ph
    2nd Ph
    UPA 219 211
    NDA 170 167
    TF 113 120
    FF 30 34
    Others 11 11

     

     

     

     

     

     

    More here

    May 03, 2009
  • Frankly, No One Has A Clue...
    Frankly, No One Has A Clue...

    But what's the harm in guessing? First Arun Nehru in Deccan Chronicle:

    I still see both the Congress and the BJP getting close to 300 seats between them. Either of them could form a stable government and the floating vote may stabilise in favour of either party. In states where both are in contention we may see the biggest changes in the next few weeks.

    A swing of 20 seats in either direction can change the existing power equations and I think this may well happen as the voter is generally ahead of most political parties.

    I find a distinct change in the mood of the electorate as several chief ministers returned to power beating anti-incumbency trends. There is a premium on integrity and good governance based on stability

    Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle

    And then DNA editors, who now show the UPA losing big and the Others gaining this week:

    Graphic Courtesy DNA

    Swapan Dasgupta says, "Phase 2 has been very good for the BJP and its allies, good for BSP, not so good for the Congress and somewhat disastrous for the so-called Fourth Front"

    MJ Akbar said it best:

    Sharad Pawar, it has been suggested, has thrown a cat among the pigeons by opening a can of prime ministers. He may have done something more worrisome than that. He may have thrown a pigeon among the cats.

    And another useful insight:

    The Left read a clear message in this decision. The Congress wastreating the Left, rather than the BJP, as its principal enemy in thisgeneral election. How? Because in the states where an alliance wouldhave hurt the BJP, like Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, theCongress rejected an alliance with leaders who could have helped defeatthe BJP, like Shibu Soren, Lalu Yadav, Ram Vilas Paswan and MulayamSingh Yadav. The distribution of seats in Jharkhand had even beenannounced, but the arrangement collapsed suddenly, and inexplicably, atthe last minute. As a consequence, the BJP will pick up vital extraseats in a state where it was comprehensively defeated five years ago.The Marxists do not consider this accidental. They believe this to be partof a careful Congress strategy to marginalise the Left. There isnothing personal or sentimental about their response.
    They will notpermit Congress to lead another Government because they are convincedthat the Congress will use every tactic, political and administrative,behind a screen of conciliatory words, to pursue the same objective ifit returns to Government. They know it is a battle of survival and theyintend to survive.

    More here

    Apr 27, 2009
  • The Asterisks Return On The Road To 272
    The Asterisks Return On The Road To 272

    Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle

    Ha! So you thought they were done with those bloody polls? All right, Arun Nehru's back of the envelope calculations are hardly a poll, but it's fun to return to speculation of this sort. No wonder, some four newspapers carry essentially the same column week after week. Here he is in the Deccan Chronicle:

    There is a clear pattern emerging in 2009, as we see the SP/RJD/LJP declining in numbers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. From their current numbers of 65 seats they can drop to 35-40 seats. The seats they lose will go to the BSP/Congress in Uttar Pradesh and to the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar.

    The Left will drop from 65 seats to 35-40 seats and the gains will be for the Trinamul Congress in West Bengal and the Congress in Kerala. I feel that the trends are consolidating towards the Congress and the BJP in the future and it is just a matter of time when the BSP (vote share can be 10 per cent in the future) will consider it expedient to ally with either party for a strategic alliance.

    Read the full piece here: Watch UP and Bihar for coalition trends

    Apr 19, 2009
  • 157-132: And the Gap is Growing
    157-132: And the Gap is Growing

    Coming from Congressman-turned BJP armchair pollster Arun Nehru, the Congress would be pleased to see him give it a lead of as much as 25 seats in the Deccan Chronicle:



    Graphic Courtesy the Deccan Chronicle

    Trends have settled in most of the states but what will happen in Uttar Pradesh? I see small changes which may further develop in the coming weeks.

    The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) continues to look strong and after the Pilibhit episode it may gain minority votes. The Congress may also gain in select seats.

    In fact, the Congress is in a fighting position in Farrukhabad, Badaun, Rampur, Moradabad, Sultanpur, Kanpur, Padrauna and Pratapgarh. It looks set to get 10 to 15 seats in Uttar Pradesh this time. Raebareli and Amethi are safe and Congress candidate Jitin Prasada should also win.

    Rampur is interesting where Jayaprada of the SP was ahead of the Congress and the BJP but now it is a photo finish between the Congress, the BJP and the SP. The Congress/BSP can both swing away another 5-6 seats from the SP and BJP if the minority reaction is favourable.

    In turn, the BJP may also consolidate its seats. The SP is under pressure in Uttar Pradesh.

    Even more heartening and perplexing for it must be Nehru's last words: "If we look at the last six Assembly elections then we see that integrity and good governance have been rewarded. Instinct tells me that a similar situation may well develop in 2009."

    Read the full article: Voters will award good governance

    Apr 12, 2009
  • 24 Different Routes To 272 With Amar Singh As Guide?
    24 Different Routes To 272 With Amar Singh As Guide?

    Not much has changed in Arun Nehru's over-all numbers, as published in the Deccan Chronicle.

    We do not know the likely composition of the Third Front but political reality cannot be ignored. All regional leaders have experience, ability and charisma. I would not write off Mr Nitish Kumar, Mr Sharad Pawar, Ms Mayawati, Ms J. Jayalalithaa or Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav as contenders for the top job in the future. My personal feeling is that a regional group formation today will result in larger cooperation with power-sharing agreements if the parties can find a compromise candidate with a good image for the Prime Minister’s post. This can become the favoured option even if the Congress or the BJP maintain the figures given below.

    The Left is still relevant even if their numbers drop from 65 seats to 33 seats, but they will get totally isolated if they obstruct regional forces from negotiating with either the Congress or the BJP. In this context, the Samajwadi Party general secretary, Mr Amar Singh, may well be a major player as he understands politics better than others. The joining together of the SP, RJD and LJP should give a suitable signal to both the Congress and the BJP that their options are limited in the future.

    More here: Spoilt for choice after the elections

    Apr 05, 2009
  • Despite UP, Bihar, Congress Still Leads BJP 153-130
    Despite UP, Bihar, Congress Still Leads BJP 153-130

    Arun Nehru's weekly numbers show  Congress gaining 4 seats over last week and the BJP losing an equal number over last week.

    "While every party is under pressure on alliance pattern and seat selection, the BJP continues to damage its prospect".

    And it is not as if the Congress does not have its own share of troubles from the allies. In Bihar, for example, Arun Nehru says he "would be surprised if the Congress wins a single seat". 

    The reason why the recent Bihar troubles do not make much of a difference in these predictions is that even as of last week, Nehru was giving the Congress 1 seat, which is now down to zero.

    For the BJP, the spat between Arun Jaitley and Rajnath Singh, and the Varun Gandhi episode are only two of the problems that are out in the public.

    Nehru says "a loss of 10-20 seats in the tally can cause damage to the BJP and this cannot be ruled out if the current chaos continues in the BJP."

    But the BJP's biggest problem is its lack of allies. It has already lost Trinamul Congress, AIADMK, TDP, BJD and NC. And realistically speaking, other than BJD, none of the others are likely to support the Saffron party.

    Meanwhile, things are heating up with the likes of Mallika Sarabhai contesting from Gandhi Nagar against LK Advani and Shashi Tharoor from Kerala.

    But Nehru is more realistic:

    I think this election will see the emergence of Mr Rahul Gandhi in the Congress and Mr Narendra Modi in the BJP and both have the talent and ability to lead. There will also be Ms Mayawati who will battle to increase the vote share of the BSP and to establish its position as a credible third force. These three may well be the major players in the political arena.

    Graphic Courtesy Deccan Chronicle

    Mar 22, 2009
  • Elections 2009: Who Will Win?
    Elections 2009: Who Will Win?

    If the election schedule is here, can the poll-predictions be far behind? Former union minister and Congressman-turned-BJP strategist Arun Nehru has been regularly publishing his back-of-the-envelope calculations in the Pioneer. His predictions for 2004 LS elections were as highly off the mark as any other scientific opinion poll by reputed psephologists. This time around, he says, it won't be a dull election. As of today, he's predicting, Congress 149, BJP 135. 

    Tamil Nadu is a good example where the DMK, the AIADMK, the PMK and the MDMK can travel in several directions, both at the Centre and in the State. This will happen sooner rather than later as voter preferences become clear. The DMK has been in power for a decade at the Centre, both with the NDA and the UPA, and its extensive assets have led to a damaging family feud. As a result Ms J Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK are gaining ground with each passing day, and the ruling Congress cannot ignore this development.

    Change is in the air and my gut feeling is that Ms Jayalalithaa and her allies will sweep the poll. The AIADMK, if it has the numbers, can travel in any direction, and the same holds true for the BSP, the SP, the TDP, the NCP, or for that matter any other regional party. Alliances and agreements will be flexible — with ideology taking a backseat — and will largely depend on numbers.

    More Here

    Incidentally, the importance of Tamil Nadu results to these elections is being underlined by almost all. Mahesh Rangarajan also had a column today in the Mail Today making the same point: "Tamil Nadu and not UP holds the key to power".

    Graphic courtesy The Pioneer

    Mar 02, 2009
more>>>
News
  • Arun Nehru Cremated, Gandhi Family Present
    Arun Nehru Cremated, Gandhi Family Present
    Jul 26, 2013
  • TN Governor Condoles Death of Arun Nehru
    TN Governor Condoles Death of Arun Nehru
    Jul 26, 2013
  • Nitish Pays Condolences On Arun Nehru's Death
    Nitish Pays Condolences On Arun Nehru's Death
    Jul 26, 2013
  • Former Union Minister Arun Nehru Dead
    Former Union Minister Arun Nehru Dead
    Jul 25, 2013
  • Pistol Deal Case: SC Stays Proceedings Against Nehru
    Pistol Deal Case: SC Stays Proceedings Against Nehru
    Mar 22, 2013
  • Arjun took decision on Anderson: Arun Nehru
    Arjun took decision on Anderson: Arun Nehru
    Jun 13, 2010
more>>>
  • PHOTO
  • NEWS
  • BLOGS
  • LATEST
  • Farmers Reject Govt Offer To Pause Farm Laws For 18 Months, To Go Ahead With R-Day Tractor Rally
  • Lessons On Diplomacy For Modi Government As White House Turns Blue From Red
  • Vaccine Fears: Top Doctors Urge PM Modi, Other Politicians To Take The Shot
  • Five Killed In Fire At Serum Institute In Pune
  • Mohammed Siraj Heads Straight To Father's Grave
more>>
  • Ajinkya Rahane Has Emerged From Virat Kohli's Shadow And How. Respect
  • OPINION | Batting Basics Forgotten At Adelaide, Indian Cricket Team Faces Test Of Character Down Under
  • AUS Vs IND: The Adelaide Collapse, A Woman Pakistani Journalist And Hyper-nationalism
  • Of Concussion Subs, Fairy Tale Comebacks And Dropped Babies
  • Differentiating Fantasy Sports From Betting And Gambling - The NITI Aayog Way
  • India Vs Australia: Win Restores Series Balance, But Virat Kohli & Co Need Change In Mindset
more>>
  • VK Sasikala Shifted To Intensive Care, Tests Positive For Covid-19
  • Rajasthan CM Issues Appeal To Health Workers As Turnout For Vaccine Dips
  • ‘Why Is My Data Important? How Much Is It Worth?’
  • Mihir Dalal Wins 2020 Gaja Capital Business Book Prize
  • Over 12,000 People Test Covid Positive After Taking Pfizer Vaccine In Israel
  • YouTube Took My Music To Millions, Says Bundeli Folk Singer Satish Yadav
  • Ronaldo's Record Disputed: Czech FA Claims Bican Scored 821 Goals
  • Faf Preparing For Unexpected Series In Pakistan
more>>
Outlook VIDEOS
Online Casino Betway Banner
  • MOST VIEWED

  • MOST COMMENTED

more>>>
  • Opinion | Online Gaming Companies Are Suffering Due To Lack Of Clarity On Legality Of Business Models
  • Adda Robusta
  • Opinion | Online Gaming Industry Can Boost Make In India Initiative
  • From Pac-Man To PUBG Mobile, Why Esports Threatens To Overtake Cricket In India
more>>>
    Magazine
  • CURRENT ISSUE
  • COVER STORY
  • NATIONAL
  • INTERNATIONAL
  • BUSINESS
  • BOOK REVIEWS
  • DOCUMENTS
  • ESSAYS
  • EXTRACTS
  • INTERVIEWS
  • OPINIONS
  • PORTRAITS
  • PROFILES
    Traveller
  • TRAVELOGUES
  • WEEKEND BREAKS
  • HOLIDAYS WITH OT
  • PHOTO FEATURES
  • HOTELS
  • GUIDEBOOKS
    Money
  • Mutual Funds
  • Insurance
  • Equity
  • Fixed Assets
  • Banking
  • ASK
    Business
  • THE BIG STORY
  • SPECIALS
  • PERSPECTIVE
  • PIXSTORY
  • ENTERPRISE
  • STRATEGY
  • MARKETS
  • C'EST LA VIE
    Social Media
  • Facebook Facebook
  • Twitter Twitter
  • Instagram Instagram
  • Youtube Youtube
  • RSS RSS
  • about us
  • contact us
  • subscribe
  • advertising rates
  • copyright & disclaimer
  • osm awards
  • compliance
  • newsscroll
  • poshan
Outlook topics A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 or just type initial letters