Bengaluru, May 21 (PTI) India may witness COVID-19 cases
peaking in mid-July if the current lockdown is lifted this
month-end but expected to be a "lower surge" due to strong
containment measures in the past nearly two months, a noted
public health expert and epidemiologist said on Thursday.
The country at present is definitely at a lower trajectory
in terms of COVID-19 deaths compared to anywhere in the world
which means it has contained the transmission of the virus to
a great extent, Professor and Head of Life Course Epidemiology
at the Public Health Foundation of India Giridhara R Babu
"If the lockdown is lifted on May 30, then we will have
peak around mid-July because if you take three incubations
period, which is one-and-half months, that will be enough for
you to know how the disease spreads when nothing is
controlled, he told PTI.
He hastened to add: But nothing-is-controlled never
happens in India now because even if you let people to be free
today they dont do things that they used to do because of
phobia. So, we will have probably a lower surge compared to
what we would have had if nothing was done from the
Syndromic surveillance should be stepped up in high-
burden areas such as Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata along with
testing, which has already been scaled up, said Babu, who has
worked with the World Health Organisation for nearly six
years, during which his efforts included stopping polio
transmission in Karnataka.
"We have to prevent transmission going from urban to
rural," Prof. Babu, who is trained in Epidemiology (MPH and
PhD) from University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), said.
My sense is we will continue with the lower trajectory.
Only thing is we should not let our guard down now. We should
continue with the same seriousness with which we started, he
said, adding, Bengaluru was not that much affected as Delhi or
Mumbai because the city enforced strict controlling early.
In the low-burden areas, the population is scattered, and
you wouldnt expect the same kind of surge that you would see
in Mumbai or in any crowded area. "As we move ahead, our areas
of focus will still be cities where overcrowding is generally
the case," Babu added.
He said strict measures should be taken wherever
population density was high. Containment measures in slums
should be stronger because of overcrowding there, he said.
Physical distancing, and reduced movement, these are
very critical as we move forward. If we are able to do that to
the extent of 60 to 70 per cent, I think we will maintain the
same lower trajectory as it has been so far, he added. PTI RS
Disclaimer :- This story has not been edited by Outlook staff and is auto-generated from news agency feeds. Source: PTI
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