The West Keenly Watches External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s Russia Visit

Minister of External Affairs Subramanyam Jaishankar is in Moscow on his first visit to Russia since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February. The visit is being closely watched in Western capitals. 

The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate and the approaching winter will possibly lead to a respite in fighting, giving time to push for negotiations. There are hopes in some quarters that New Delhi, with its excellent ties with Russia and friendly relations with Ukraine, would act as peace broker.

India had from the beginning of the conflict called for the cessation of hostilities and going back to negotiating table as war is no longer acceptable in this day and age. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said so explicitly to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Samarkand when they met at the sidelines of the SCO Summit in September, Uzbekistan. 

But is New Delhi seriously considering playing a role in what is primarily a European conflict as some are speculating?

“Yes, India can play a role in the occasional easing of tension in given situations. New Delhi was able to bring Indian students out of Ukraine. It also played a part in getting the grain deal through as Jaishankar had said. India can play a contributory role in peace making, but is unlikely to act alone,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, a Russia expert at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF). 

He added, “India has good relations with Russia but it does not have the leverage with the United States. After all, the war in Ukraine is essentially about the future of European security architecture.”

Most former Indian diplomats agree.

Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said, "India has no leverage. The United States, United Kingdom, Brussels, Poland, the Baltic states, and Ukraine don't want to negotiate. If the United States wants, it can talk to Russia and begin process of negotiations. They don't need India for this."

Earlier, Sibal had tweeted, "Our press and experts should not dance to outside agendas. US reports India played a role in grain shipments and reducing nuclear threats in Ukraine is raising pumped up scenarios of Indian meditation. Game is United States is ready for dialogue, needs support, and puts onus on Russia through its 'friends'."

Much of what is happening in Ukraine has to do with North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion into the former Eastern Bloc nations. From original 12 members, NATO now expanded to 30 European nations. Ukraine was in a way the last frontier and Russian action was aimed at preventing European missiles from being placed on what it literally considers its backyard. Moscow’s gamble of sending its forces in Ukraine has instead led neutral countries like Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership.  

“The Ukraine conflict was a dominant feature of our talks,” said Jaishankar during his joint news conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov after their meeting on Tuesday. 

Jaishankar spoke about the economic fallout of the war, coming as it did so soon after the world had to deal with the unprecedented downturn of the global economy since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Jaishankar was also asked about India’s increasing oil import from Russia, even as the United States and Western powers were trying to persuade India not to do so.  

He said, “As regards to the oil supply issue, there is stress on the energy market…But as the world’s third-largest consumer of oil and gas, it is our fundamental obligation to ensure that the Indian consumer has the best possible access on the most advantageous terms to the international market. We have seen that the India-Russia relationship has worked to my advantage so if it works to my advantage, I would like to keep that going.”

Later at the Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technical and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC) meeting, for which Jaishankar had travelled to Moscow, Jaishankar noted that India-Russia trade was “on track to achieve a target of $30 billion in terms of the annual trade turnover. And that is partly due to the preparations and discussions which we have had between us in the last few years. Our economic cooperation is moving towards long-term stability, but this needs to be balanced if it is to be sustainable. These issues are at the core of our talks today.”

The increase in bilateral trade has to do with India buying large quantities of oil from Russia since prices went down following unprecedented Western sanctions on Moscow. New Delhi is also importing fertilisers and soya oil from Russia besides military hardware. 

Jaishankar mentioned balance, indicating that Russia needs to offset this by buying from India. India-Russia ties continue to grow, but the future will depend on how the Ukraine war finally ends.