Manipur Election Results 2022: Congress Faces Litmus Test But Signs Suggest Edge To BJP

“The little man walking into a little booth, with a little pencil, making a little cross on a little bit of paper," Winston Churchill had once famously said. Except the little piece of paper is now a machine, the ubiquitous EVM, which will decide the political fate of hundreds of candidates in the fray in five states across India.

Far from the media glare on the 'big one' Uttar Pradesh, Manipur will also take up counting of votes on Thursday to elect a new government after several eventful weeks that saw bullets being fired, bombs hurled and physical confrontations besides allegations of using surrendered militants to intimidate voters. After polling and re-polling, all eyes are now set on March 10.

So much is the fear of possible foul play in counting, that the JD(U), a former BJP ally is going to put up five MPs to camp in Imphal, the capital city, for keeping ‘vigil’ over counting of votes.

“If the party gets any complaints from the JD(U) candidates about any foul play during counting, the Members of Parliament shall sit in dharna in front of respective counting centres,” party general secretary Afaque Ahmad Khan, its in-charge for the North East region, said in a statement.

After the second phase of polling was held on March 5 for 22 seats, the Chief Election Officer had to order re-polling in seven polling booths in three constituencies of Ukhrul, Thoubal and Senapati district after miscreants damaged EVM machines. This is after deploying 20,000 para-military forces across the 22 constituencies.

For the Congress, the 2022 assembly polls are a litmus test for existence. After being reduced from the longest-ruling party to an Opposition, the party fought the polls in a pre-poll alliance with the Left parties. However, exit polls results have showed that wind is not blowing in favour of the grand old party in Manipur.

The second phase of polling could have gone in favour of Congress. The party has strong hold in at least 12 out of the 22 seats located in Jiribam and Imphal valleys and Naga-dominated hills. In 2017 elections, Congress had won 12 out of the 22 seats – eight in the valley and four in the hills. But the problem is many sitting MLAs of Congress in these constituencies have jumped ship to BJP or JD(U). These MLAs include its most prominent Muslim face Abdul Nasir who is contesting from JD(U) from the Lilong seat, dominated by Muslim voters.

Close contests will be seen in six constituencies in Thoubal district, a home turf of former Congress Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh, who was also the longest-serving Chief Minister of Manipur. Mega rallies were held by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah in this district to trouble the water for Ibobi where the BJP has fielded Leitanthem Basanta Singh.

For the Bharatiya Janata Party, the 11 Naga-dominated constituencies that went on polls in the second phase are tough nuts to crack as these constituencies have been traditionally voting either for Naga People’s Front (NPF) or for the Congress. The BJP this time is challenging the Congress and its former ally Naga People’s Front with their pitch of peace and development, of bridging the gap between the hills and the valley and ongoing Naga peace talks. In 2017, the Congress got four seats in the Naga-dominated areas.

All eyes are fixed on another prominent constituency of Ukhrul, the home district of late Th Muivah, general secretary of armed rebel group NSCN. Though the sitting MLA Alfred Kanngam is from Congress, a close contest is speculated between the BJP and NPF. Riding on its promise of development in the hill areas, BJP fielded former national footballer Somatai Shaiza against NPF candidate Ram Muivah, a former bureaucrat.

Another constituency to watch out for is Heingang, the home constituency of CM N Biren Singh. While the CM is fighting from the same seat, the Congress has fielded Pangeijam Saratchandra Singh to challenge Biren Singh. Notably, Phairembam Saratchandra Singh is a former BJP MLA who joined the Congress after he was overlooked by the BJP despite being a sitting MLA.

Talking to Outlook, Dhiren A. Sadokpam, a political expert and researcher from Imphal, said, “By conventional understanding of electoral politics in India, infighting within a party impacts the performance of the same party in winning elections. However, in the context of Manipur, voters vote for candidates with fair chances of winning. 

“Even if a big chunk of the BJP supporters leaves the party, the gap will be filled in by new supporters of the candidates who have been given a party ticket to contest the election. For instance, most of the former Congress candidates who had recently joined the BJP are candidates who are considered "winnable" and all their followers will replace the supporters of those BJP leaders who had left the party. So, it will not make much of a difference in terms of winning seats."

A close fight is also expected in Wangkhei constituency, where Okram Henry, nephew of three-time Congress CM Okram Ibobi, is contesting from the BJP. The Congress has fielded Rajkumar Priyobarta Singh.

The fight is interesting also because of the fact that BJP has bypassed senior party leader Yumkam Erabor Singh to give ticket to Henry. Erabot later joined the NPP.

Another interesting constituency is Yaiskul where JDU’s Thounaojam Brinda, a 2012 batch Manipur Public Service Commission officer is giving a tough fight to BJP’s Thokchom Satyabrata Singh, the sitting MLA. Brinda, who earlier was with BJP, walked out of the party after she was denied a party ticket.

Konthoujam Govindas, the former Manipur Congress Chief, a six-time MLA is fighting the polls from BJP in Bishnupur constituency, a Congress stronghold. A tough fight is expected between Govindas and Congress Candidate Joykumar Singh in this constituency.

Khangabok constituency is another constituency to watch out for where the Congress has fielded Surjakumar Okram, the son of three-term Manipur chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh. The BJP has fielded Khundrakpam Menjor Mangang.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to perform better in Kuki-dominated areas as well, amid speculation of local militants supporting the party. According to Dhiren A Sadokpam, given the political churnings on the eve of the assembly election, the BJP would definitely make inroads in the Kuki-dominated areas.

He said, “However, we should also note that not all Kukis are supporting the BJP. Perhaps, due to the formal and open support declared by those Kuki groups in Suspension of Operation with the government, there is a tendency to believe that all Kukis will be supporting the BJP. 

“If one had been observing the pre-poll and poll violence in key constituencies in Kuki areas, there seems to be a close contest between BJP and other parties as well. However, the mandate will swing in favour of a dominant party like the BJP having enough money and muscle power in the literal sense.”