Explained: How Climate Change Can Fuel The Next Pandemic

There are at least 10,000 viruses in the world that can infect humans, but most of them are away from human habitations in the wild, so there is little to be afraid of. But that might change in the not-so-distant future.

Climate change can lead to a situation where two species that were earlier isolated from each-other share a habitat, giving rise to a possibility of them transmitting their diseases to each-other, according to a recent study published in Nature. 

In scientific terms, such an event when a virus from one species jumps into another species for the first time is called a “spillover”. 

The study, conducted by America’s Georgetown University researchers, estimated that the number of such species whose habitats would shift because of climate change would be 3,139, which could drive spillover events 4,000 times.

Here is all you need to know about this study and existing scientific understanding on climate change and pandemics. 

What's the science of climate change and pandemics?

Climatic and environmental factors drive migration. Humans and animals move to warmer places in winters and to cooler places in summers. As the climate becomes more extreme and the natural habitat of several animals is endangered, they would move out of those places and their likelihood of coming into contact with humans would increase.

With such a contact, the possibility of humans catching any disease they carry will also increase. However, the risk is not from animals alone.

Cleveland Clinics said in a release, “There’s also the possibility that long-dormant viruses frozen in ice could be released by thawing polar regions.”

Global warming brings other fears too. “As the earth warms, scientists are concerned about an increase in mosquito-borne viruses and infectious diseases spread by animals,” notes Cleveland Clinic. 

It might have already started

Gregory Albery, the study’s co-lead author, said it’s likely that what they have predicted has already started. He added that it’s not entirely preventable either. 

Study co-author Colin Carlson, was quoted as saying by Euro News that we must cut greenhouse gas and phase out fossil fuels to reduce the risk of infectious disease spread.

Between their alarming findings, the researchers also said that not all of these emerging viruses will infect humans or cause a pandemic, but even smaller but large numbers of outbreaks pose a risk to human health. 

Even if they have reduced mortality, they could overwhelm healthcare systems and affect the economy as even mild illness in people can affect productivity.

Asia and Africa are at greatest risk

Regions in Asia and Africa are the greatest risk, according to the Georgetown study. 

The risk of emerging infectious diseases jumping from animals to humans is especially true for Africa and Asia, continents that have been hotspots for deadly disease spread from humans to animals or vice versa over the last several decades, including the flu, HIV, Ebola and COVID-19, reported Euro News citing the Georgetown study.

Jaron Browne of the Grassroots Global Justice Alliance said the Georgetown study highlighted climate injustices experienced by people from African and Asian nations.

Browne said, “African and Asian nations face the greatest threat of increased virus exposure, once again illustrating how those on the frontlines of the crisis have very often done the least to create climate change."