Explained: Delhi's Covid Surge Ahead Of Festive Season, Centre's Advisory To States And What Experts Are Saying

Delhi is witnessing a surge in daily Covid-19 infections ahead of the festive season, with daily cases and positivity rate being on an upward trajectory for a week or so. 

Delhi on Sunday reported 2,423 daily Covid-19 infections, the highest since January. The positivity rate also also soared to 14.97 on Sunday compared to 13.84 on Saturday. 

Earlier on Friday, Delhi had reported 2,419 Covid-19 cases, the highest in six months, but Sunday's numbers have surpassed it. On Saturday, the national capital reported a minor dip in new infections at 2,311, but witnessed a further spike in positivity rate as it soared to 13.84 compared to 12.95 on Friday. 

The rising number of cases has already led to anxiety among traders who have written to authorities requesting that they don't put restrictions on markets amid the surge. The traders have also appealed to people to follow Covid-19 appropriate behaviour as a fresh wave of infections is bound to reflect in some restrictions that would dampen festive sales. 

Amid this, the Union government has sent an advisory to Delhi and six other states on rising infections. Here we explain Delhi's coronavirus surge, what experts are saying, and what the Union government has said in its advisory.

Delhi's Covid-19 surge in numbers

Delhi has been reporting a surge in daily Covid-19 infections and positivity rate for over a week. 

Its daily infections reached an almost seven-month high on Sunday with 2,423 Covid-19 infections in the past 24 hours. It closely surpassed the earlier six-month-high of daily cases reported on Friday (2,419). 

Sunday marks the fifth straight day that new infections in Delhi have remained above the 2,000-mark. Moreover, the positivity rate on Sunday increased to 14.97 from 13.84 on Saturday, making it the seventh straight day when the positivity rate was reported above 10.

The consistently high positivity rate indicates that more and more people whose samples are being taken are testing positive. 

Delhi has contributed 8.2 per cent of India's weekly new cases in the week ending August 5 and has also recorded 1.86 times increase in average daily new cases from 802 in the week ending July 29 to 1,492 in in the week ending August 5.

However, the ongoing spike in daily infections and positivity rate does not appear to translate in severity of desease as hospitalisations and deaths continue to remain low. Here, a caveat needs to be put in place as deaths often take some time to reflect when infections surge, so it might be too early to make a verdict on that, but low hospitalisations do suggest that current wave of infections is not producing serious illness.

Delhi's government's health bulletin on Saturday reported that of the 9,405 beds reserved for coronavirus patients in various Delhi hospitals, only 470 were occupied. It added that beds at Covid-19 care centres and health centres were lying vacant. Of 7,349 active cases, 4,586 were in home isolation which is intended for mild or asymptomatic infections. 

What experts are saying on Delhi's Covid surge

Experts have said that people's poor adherance to Covid-appropriate behaviour is leading to the surge in infections and positivity rate. 

Reports have also surfaced noting that enthusiasm among people for coronavirus vaccine's booster doses is also waninig. Experts have repeatedly stated that vaccination against coronavirus is a must and is key to preventing severe illness and hospitalisations. Doctors have been urging people to get their booster doses whenever due and not prolong it or avoid it due to any vaccine hesitancy. 

Regarding the current surge in Delhi, experts have noted that people letting their guard down and not following social distancing norms are the leading causes. They stressed that these fluctuations also indicate that the disease is at the endemic stage. 

Another reason that has been higlighted for the high number in cases in Delhi is that the city has reported the BA.4 and the BA.5 sub-variants of Omicron which are highly transmissible. 

While there is not much reason to worry at the moment as hospitalisations and death are low, it's important to keep the situation under control as festive season is coming which would see more people travelling either to their native places or relative's homes or to market for shopping, leading to crowded gatherings which would be conducive to virus transmission. 

The festive season starts with Raksha Bandhan on August 11 when women travel in large numbers to their brother's homes. The season further includes Independence Day, Janmashtami, Navratri, Dussehra, and Deepawali.

Waning interest in booster doses

Fewer people are opting for Covid-19 precaution dose in Delhi in the last several days, even as the number of coronavirus cases reported in the national capital has registered a record rise in the past one week.

As per official data from the city health department, as on August 2, the total number of booster doses administered in the city stood at 22,19,059.

The corresponding figures for August 4 and 5 were — 22,42,415 and 22,57,172. Data analysis showed that the number of precaution doses administered till August 4 was merely 1.05 per cent higher than the figures on August 2.

And, on Friday it showed only a rise of a meagre 0.65 per cent vis-a-vis the figures on Thursday.

The Union government has also emphasised the importance of increasing the pace of vaccination. In a letter dated August 5, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan wrote to seven states, including Delhi, that the pace of vaccination must be improved.

He wrote, "States should aim to increase the pace of vaccination for all eligible population and accelerate the administration of free precaution doses for 18-plus eligible population at all Government Covid Vaccination Centres (CVCs) under the 'COVID Vaccination Amrit Mahotsav' till September 30."

Centre's advisory to states including Delhi

Amid the surge in daily Covid-19 cases and positivity rate in Delhi, the Union government has sent an advisory to seven states, including Delhi. 

In the advisory, the Union government has asked Delhi and six states to ensure adequate testing, promote Covid-appropriate behaviour, and increase the pace of vaccination to contain the surge.

The states to whom the Centre sent the advisory are Delhi, Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Telangana.

In a letter dated August 5, Union Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan said upcoming festivals and mass congregations in different parts of the country may potentially facilitate transmission of infectious diseases, including Covid-19. 

Bhushan noted that it is critical to ensure adequate testing is undertaken in all the districts of the states while maintaining the recommended share of RT-PCR and antigen tests. He added that states must also closely monitor districts reporting higher cases, positivity rates and clusters to prevent further spread of infection. 

Stressing that genome sequencing of prescribed samples of international passengers as well as collection of samples from sentinel sites and local cluster of new Covid-19 cases is equally important, Bhushan said such samples must be sent promptly by the states and Union territories to the designated lab of INSACOG network for genome sequencing.

(With PTI inputs)