The Ukraine war has hastened the flux and uncertainty in the international global order and forced countries to hedge their bets. Talks on Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s possible visit to India later this month has to be seen in this context. No official announcement has been made by either side, but chances are that the state councillor may travel to New Delhi during his South Asia visit in March.
If it comes through, this will be the first visit of a senior Chinese minister since the military confrontation between the two Asian giants in April 2020.
The disengagement process is not yet over though the last round of military commanders’ talks was positive. India is unlikely to turn down the request for the visit which has come from the Chinese side. In fact, if it comes through, it will be a good opportunity for India and China to exchange views on the changing dynamic in the world order following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the all-pervasive sanctions that have unplugged Moscow from the international financial system.
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Both India and China have major dealings with Russia. The two countries could be facing secondary sanctions from the US. India is now mulling over buying Russian oil offered at concessional prices and paying it in the rupee-rouble system that was in place after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. That system could be revived.
However, New Delhi has to think through the deal as US pressure will mount. Washington is already incensed with New Delhi’s neutral stand on Ukraine and its refusal to condemn Russian aggression. At a news conference in Washington, when White House press secretary Jen Psaki was asked about this and she admitted that it would not violate US sanctions. But she also observed If India decides to go ahead with the oil deal with Russia, India has to remember where it stood when history is recounted. Simply put New Delhi would be on the wrong side of history. As a spokesperson, she will reflect the views of the Biden administration that have not taken kindly to India’s neutral stand.
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During talks in Rome between China and the US, Washington had warned Beijing not to circumvent the sanctions against Russia or it would be open to sanctions by the West.
Considering the pressure on all sides and the dramatic changes that have shaken the world, revitalising BRICS would make sense. The Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa’s group of emerging economies was initiated in 2001 (South Africa joined in 2010) with great fanfare and was pitched by Goldman Sachs as the future of investment destination for the world. Golman Sachs believed that these countries will dominate the world economy by 2050.
Those hopes have long faded and by 2015 BRICS became just another talking shop for leaders of the five countries. A BRICS summit is scheduled for the latter half of the year in China. Some believe that Beijing’s outreach to India is part of a plan to revitalise BRICS.
New Delhi will think very carefully before it embarks on such a path for the simple reason that the trust deficit which was always present in India-China ties are now at its highest. The Ladakh transgressions will first have to be resolved. The status-quo ante has to be maintained, which means that the People’s Liberation Army will have to vacate their positions and retreat to beyond the Line of Actual Control (LAC) before any serious reconciliation can be considered.
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Much will depend on how the talks with Wang Yi progress and what happens on the ground in Ladakh before any moves are made. So far there is no official confirmation that the visit is on. But this appears to be a tentative attempt at lowering the temperature between India and China.
