China Foreign Minister's Unscheduled Visit To India An Olive Branch To Delhi?

China’s state councillor and foreign minister Wang Yi landed in Delhi Thursday evening for talks with external affairs minister Subramanyam Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The meetings are slated for Friday. This is the first high-level visit since ties between the two Asian giants went into a deep freeze following the military confrontation between the two armies in the summer of 2020.

The unscheduled visit of China’s foreign minister has come as a surprise. He was on a trip to South Asia and was in Pakistan for a meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. From Islamabad  Wang travelled to Kabul marking the first major visit by a foreign dignitary. The next stop was to be  Nepal. India was not on the agenda. The MEA  has not officially announced the visit.   

Speaking on the day when Wang Yi landed in Delhi, Jaishankar spoke of the unpredictability of ties with China. "Few would have anticipated the turn that India’s relations with China have taken in the last two years," said Jaishankar at the St Stephen’s Distinguished Alumni Annual lecture.

On the agenda will be the pull-back of the remaining troops from Ladakh, as well as  Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the economic impact of the war on energy prices. India and China have abstained from voting against Russia at the UN. On Monday, while China supported Russia’s resolution on Ukraine, India chose to remain neutral.  

It was China that sent the feelers for Wang’s trip. Expectedly India did not turn down the offer despite misgivings among some in the establishment that by doing so, the Modi government is going against its own stated policy.

New Delhi has repeatedly proclaimed that India-China relations cannot get back to business as usual unless peace and tranquillity are restored along the LAC in Ladakh. This was said on Tuesday by Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla at a news conference. China on the other hand has said, from the start, that bilateral ties should not be held hostage to events on the LAC, as military commanders of the two sides were discussing the Ladakh and that would be settled by them. The last round of army commanders' talks was better than expected. But while both armies have pulled back from certain areas, a complete pull-out of troops is yet to occur. India wants complete de-escalation with soldiers back to the positions they held on the ground at the end of April 2020.

The thinking in New Delhi is that if Wang Yi’s conversations help to accelerate the process of de-escalation, it will be a positive signal. The trust deficit between India and China runs deep. India has several red lines and will be ready to take the relationship forward only when the situation in Ladakh gets back to the status quo ante. There is speculation that if these "exploratory talks" go well, Jaishankar could travel to China. Beijing is keen that Prime Minister Narendra Modi attend the BRICS summit scheduled to be hosted by China towards the end of the year.

China’s olive branch to India comes at a critical time in international affairs triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The old order is crumbling and nobody is certain what will replace the power structure that was in place after the second world war. Nations are looking at how best to secure their national interests in a changing world. The foreign minister’s unscheduled visit to New Delhi may be an attempt by China to repair ties at a time of uncertainty. But nothing is certain and it is difficult to read China’s motive.

Whether Wang will call on Prime Minister Narendra Modi is uncertain as of now. A courtesy call on the PM may not be on the agenda. Much will depend on the outcome of the meeting between the two foreign ministers and the signals that Jaishankar and Doval pick up from the conversation.

But the signals from China are mixed. While attending the Organisation of Islamic Conference meeting as a special guest in Islamabad, Wang Yi made what New Delhi felt were unnecessary references to Kashmir. The MEA came up with a sharp rejoinder and pointedly named Wang Yi in its rebuttal. "We reject the uncalled reference to India by the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his speech at the Opening Ceremony,” MEA spokesman Arindam Bagchi said. He went on to add, "Matters related to the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir are entirely the internal affairs of India. Other countries including China have no locus standi to comment. They should note that India refrains from the public judgement of their internal issues."

Ironically the Chinese foreign office spokesman Wang Wenbin, while replying to a question on Japan’s reference to Taiwan and Ukraine had this to say. "The Taiwan question and the Ukraine issue are different in nature and are not comparable at all. The Taiwan question is purely China’s own affair and none of Japan’s business.’’