National

Which Way To Poes Garden?

Jayalalitha gives the BJP a reprieve but new realignments could be on the cards

Advertisement

Which Way To Poes Garden?
info_icon

POLITICAL parties in Tamil Nadu are gripped by the old existentialist question—to blow with the wind or bend with the grass. After sending the nation into one of those periodic bouts of suspense, on Saturday the AIADMK leadership again relented on its support to the BJP coalition. Which is not to say that the BJP can rest easy. As AIADMK leader and Union minister K. Janarthanam clarified: "Though we will be participating in Parliament, we will not tone down our demand for the dismissal of the DMK government. There may be walkouts on the basis of issues as they arise."

Advertisement

Clearly, AIADMK supremo J. Jayalalitha has decided to play her trump card of 18 parliamentary seats in a more blatant fashion. Even as Janarthanam declared that "support for the Vajpayee government would continue for the moment", Jayalalitha had an hour-long meeting with Buta Singh, an emissary of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

In fact, Poes Garden witnessed hectic activity over the weekend. MPs were briefed by Jayalalitha's second-in-command V.R. Nedunchezhiyan, while she was in the next room talking to Union minister Dilip Ray (of the Biju Janata Dal), in Chennai on behalf of the the BJP. Much to his discomfiture, she declared that Buta Singh was waiting in the lobby and the BJP should recognise her importance. Unable to make any headway, Ray left in a huff. Soon after defence minister George Fernandes came calling, but had to wait for the Buta Singh-Jayalalitha confabulations to end. Ironically, Singh was dropped from the Union cabinet after Jayalalitha's tantrums.

Advertisement

And through all this, the 100-day-old question remains: will the AIADMK stick by the BJP? Indeed, the BJP is also asking the same question, as is every other political party in Tamil Nadu. And given the churning process Tamil Nadu politics is going through, the DMK is debating whether it would be right to extend covert support to the BJP government in the event of Jayalalitha pulling out. The TMC, for its part, is pondering over its relationship with the Congress in case Sonia Gandhi decides to align with Jayalalitha. And MDMK leader Vaiko is contemplating how his cadres would react if the DMK also chooses to support the BJP alliance.

However, the binary opposition does not seem to end here. It has become omnipotent and omnipresent. Will the AIADMK break or not? Which government will fall, M. Karunanidhi's or A.B. Vajpa-yee's? Will Sonia accept Jayalalitha's olive branch? Will Jayalalitha expel Vaiko and Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy from her front? Who will be the BJP's special emissary, Jas-want Singh or Vajpayee's foster son-in-law? "The entire politics of a country of subcontinental size is reduced to a true-or-false game. While you were anxious to meet me, I was anxious to meet you too. You think that I know what is happening in my party and I thought you may be knowing what is happening in my party through other sources. The process has become so speculative that politics has even ceased to be ugly business, and is just a ruthless gamble," intones a senior AIADMK leader.

Advertisement

Amidst all the uncertainty, there is a general consensus that the AIADMK-BJP alliance is reaching a point of no return. The question is when and how the alliance will formally break. Since Jayalalitha's refusal to attend the coordination committee meeting held in Delhi on June 27, the AIADMK has been busy preparing a huge dossier on the BJP government's acts of omission and commission. Though its single-point agenda has been the toppling of the DMK government, it wants to create an impression that its relationship with the BJP soured because of various political reasons. Says V.R. Nedunchezhiyan, chairman of the AIADMK presidium: "We have made many demands in the interest of the state. But the BJP has highlighted only the demand for invoking Article 356. Fact is, our ministers are not getting due respect in Delhi."

Advertisement

The state BJP leadership is peeved by the situation. According to a senior party leader, the BJP has been bending backwards to appease Jayalalitha: "For one whole week we were trying to get an appointment for Jaswant Singh to meet Jayalalitha. She refused to come on line. Then the prime minister tried to give a personal touch by asking his son-in-law Ranjan to meet her. But this was also spurned. We had no other option but to declare that there was no move to send anyone from the prime minister's household. When we said this, the AIADMK leadership, which leaked the news to the press about the PM's desire to send a personal emissary, interpreted it as an act of slighting Jayalalitha. It was a blatant lie on the part of senior leader Nedunchezhiyan to declare that there was no feeler from the BJP."

Advertisement

Though the AIADMK front is clearly crack -ing, the party itself remains a monolith. The MDMK, with three MPs including Vaiko, has already distanced itself from the AIADMK alliance after it refused to back Jayalalitha's demand for invoking Article 356. "As an apolitical party committed to state autonomy, our demand has constantly been to get rid of Article 356. We cannot be opportunistic about these cardinal principles," declares Vaiko.

Jayalalitha's long-term confidant, Vazhapadi K. Ramamurthy, is also drifting away from the AIADMK. On July 1, after a two-hour-long meeting at Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence, he briefed the press about the consultation: "There is no immediate threat of the AIADMK pulling out its ministers or withdrawing support to the ruling BJP coalition." But Jayalalitha shot back with a midnight press release accusing Ramamurthy of exceeding his brief and declaring that she alone had the right to comment on the AIADMK's plans.

However, all said and done, in an era of number politics, Jayalalitha still has an upper hand. Out of the 27 MPs in her front, 18 belong to her party, four to the PMK led by her present advisor Ramdoss and then there is the loose cannon called Subramanian Swamy. Therefore the exit of three MDMK MPs and Ramamurthy is not likely to weaken her ability to bargain.

The reasons for the AIADMK's distrust of the BJP's intentions are manifold. Even as party MPs were getting ready for the resumed budget session of Parliament, the CBI seized 80 gold biscuits with foreign markings, each weighing 116 grams, from a bank locker belonging to Bhaskaran, a close relative of Sasikala. This is perceived as a veiled threat to Jayalalitha. "How can we complain that Karunanidhi's action of filing cases is politically motivated, when the CBI itself conducts an exhibition of seized gold? The CBI comes under the supervision of our minister Kadumbur Janarthanam. But even he was kept in the dark. Do you think the CBI would have acted without clearance from home minister L.K. Advani?" asks a senior AIADMK leader.

Advertisement

Besides, Jayalalitha is not used to anyone contradicting her pronouncements. But the sustained rebuttal from the BJP that there was no pre-poll agreement regarding the dismissal of the DMK government was not seen as a routine political statement but a motivated one with an hidden agenda. And her approach leaves no space for dissent. Says an AIADMK MP: "In most of our meetings, Amma comes with a written statement and clearly indicates what line she wants us to take. Even if the majority of the MPs do not agree with her line, we don't protest because she reads that as an act of treachery. On the contrary, we try to find more reasons to justify her line. This what has been happening in the party since MGR's death in 1987."

Advertisement

 Meanwhile, AIADMK MPs confirm that Jayalalitha is negotiating some sort of arrangement with the newly formed Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha through the Dravidar Kazhagam general secretary, K. Veeramani, who is said to have close links with both Mulayam and Laloo Prasad Yadav. Says a party MP: "After playing up the stability card to justify our alliance with the BJP, we can now play up the social justice card to justify the new alliance when it materialises." Which brings us back to square one: how will the DMK and the BJP react?

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement