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Weathervane Days

There’s talk of a reshuffle, but what are the options the prime minister has?

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Weathervane Days
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In just 0.54 seconds, a Google search for “Modi cabinet reshuffle” throws up about 1,58,000 results. In reality, it has been long in coming; the last big one occurring 10 months ago. At various times last year, the buzz, mostly coming from those eyeing a spot in Team Modi, was that the PM was set to recast his team. As ‘Happy New Year’ gets serious, the grapevine is again abuzz. BJP MPs and allies have been told to be in the capital on January 18, ‘Sankranti’ apparently heralding the end of the inauspicious period in the Hindu calendar. No one knows why, but more than a few feel the moment may have come to get their bandhgalas ready.

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There are some, mostly those who fear losing out their place, who rule out a rejig before the end of the budget session or at least till intra-party elections are over and Amit Shah is reinstalled as BJP president in a second term.

But both sides acknowledge that Modi has realised the urgency to arrest the political and economic drift and make a course correction. Following electoral debacles in Delhi and Bihar, and setbacks in local body elections in Gujarat and Maharashtra, as also in several byelections like in Madhya Pradesh, there is a sense that the PM needs to rethink his political and economic strategies.

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The feeling among political observers is that, if and when the reshuf­fle happens, it will be merely cosmetic, given the low bench strength in the BJP as also the general distrust in the system. Party vice-president Vinay Sahas­ra­buddhe, who is considered an RSS insider, spoke of the “talent deficit” in a Reuters interview at the turn of the year. That comment has since been officially denied, but it has not wiped away the feeling that Modi has a limited pool to choose from, both by intent and by circumstance. In forming his council of ministers, or in the two reshuffles later, he has not shown any great desire to pick people from outside the box. So it’s double jeopardy.

However, several factors underline the reshuffle imperative:

  • Some Union ministers, like Sadananda Gowda (law), Radhamohan Singh (agriculture) and Mahesh Sharma (culture) are cited as having performed below par.
  • A disproportionate number of ministers (15 out of 48) are Rajya Sabha members. In fact, it’s the Lok Sabha where the BJP’s real strength lies.
  • States like Bihar are over-represented, with four ministers out of 22 Lok Sabha members; but Rajasthan, for instance, has only three ministers out of its 25 MPs.
  • Ministers like Najma Heptullah (mino­rities) and Kalraj Mishra (medium and small scale industries) have crossed the official cut-off age of 75.

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  • Some ministers like Arun Jaitley (fina­nce and information and broadcasting) are saddled with more than one portfolio and are said to have performed below par.
  • Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Pondicherry go to the polls this year, and a recalibration of ministers may be politically expedient.

Some in the BJP claim the party is under pressure from the Sangh parivar to change tack sooner rather than later, which is probably why Sahasrabuddhe spoke of a “talent deficit”, although in public RSS leaders generally say the “cultural organisation” has nothing to do with politics and that, after all, Modi is doing quite well. A BJP watcher explains the situation thus: “Modi’s hands are tied. He can’t eject ministers for non-performance and at the same time retain Amit Shah, who has lost two elections. His immediate aim is to retain Shah, which means the non-performers get to stay.”

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Mohan Guruswamy, who was advisor to the finance minister in the Vajpayee government, is scathing. “The two critical ministries calling for a change are finance (Arun Jaitley) and commerce (Nirmala Sitharaman). Both have underperformed and underachieved,” he says. “Their inaction is jeopardising India’s fut­ure.” Adds social scientist Shiv Vis­vanathan, “Manohar Parrikar in defe­nce is embarrassing; Mahesh Sharma (culture) is a philistine and behaves like a bully; Prakash Javadekar (environment) could do with a retreat.”

Admittedly Jaitley, otherwise seen as a pillar of strength for Modi, has had a torrid time of late, with the economy failing to take off, exports falling and the Sensex plunging. Then there’s the debilitating Delhi & District Cricket Association aff­air. But his position, say observers, seems clear—at least till the budget is presented. Jaitley’s bete noire, Arun Shourie, who had been in contention in 2014, is out of the reckoning, thanks to his repeated barbs. Another contender, Subramanian Swamy, has been “managed” for now with an offical bungalow and perks like Z+ security.

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Should the reshuffle go through, there are murmurs that Jaitley might lose infor­mation and broadcasting, for there has been growing negativity about the government in the media, about which Modi is touchy. In Jaitley’s defence, however, a journalist close to him says the minister could hardly have glossed over ground realities. Some believe Sushma Swaraj may have done more than enough to swap roles with Jaitley. And as for Rajnath Singh, if Shah continues as party chief, he too will have to be allowed to continue as home minister. With the last two Parliament sessions washed out, the role of parliamentary affairs minister Venkaiah Naidu is also being questioned. Even BJP allies complain that he “talks down” to the Opposition, not healthy when GST is still hanging in the air.

Then there’s the age factor. BJP circles confirm that Najma Heptullah had been sounded out for a governor’s post. Although Kalraj Mishra too is now in the ‘marg darshak’ age band, the view is that the party is unlikely to upset the Brahmin leader from Uttar Pradesh, what with elections set for 2017. A senior leader of the party remarked sarcastically, “In 2014, 75 years was the upper limit for ind­uction in the cabinet, but in 2016, it’s not the age of retirement!”

“A cabinet reshuffle is not and should not be like musical chairs,” says Visvanathan. But as the suspense continues, a BJP elder recalled a Chinese aphorism for Modi: “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are headed.”

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By Bula Devi in Delhi

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