Making A Difference

Washington Steers A Consensus

American strategists think 26/11 could lead to greater Indo-US counter-terrorism cooperation

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Washington Steers A Consensus
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Even as US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice flew in and out of the subcontinent, most American analysts were pointing to US president-elect Barack Obama’s statement on Mumbai. Obama said he would remain "steadfast in support of India’s efforts to catch the perpetrators of this terrible act and bring them to justice".

US officials, both present and past, say Obama’s statement, though not an endorsement of surgical strikes against terrorists in Pakistan, is certainly a break from America’s past ministrations for calm. They believe America’s Pakistan policy could change under Obama once he is sworn in as president, particularly as he has openly threatened to send US troops into Pakistan should it fail to check the rampaging terrorists.

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This should gladden India, as also the view of a key Obama advisor on South Asia, Bruce Riedel, on the Mumbai attacks. "The targets—India’s economic heart and the Crusader/Zionist enemy—are the targets of Al Qaeda and its allies," he told Outlook. From this perspective, there’s an acceptance that the menace of terrorism confronting the US and India is similar in nature.

But this doesn’t mean Washington will turn a blind eye to India going to war with Pakistan, for it would throw South Asia, the battleground for the war against terror, into disarray. "But both the present and the new administration," Teresita Schaffer of the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Outlook, "will recognise that India has to do something, and that it’s of utmost importance to put the Lashkar out of business. The US will try to deliver a satisfactory Pakistani response."

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Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation says the attacks on Mumbai are likely to herald greater counter-terrorism cooperation between the US and India. She says past efforts have failed largely because of "differing geostrategic perceptions, Indian reticence to deepen the intelligence relationship, and US bureaucratic resistance to elevate counter-terrorism cooperation beyond a certain level." Similarly, Daniel Markey at the Council on Foreign Relations says the fallout of Mumbai would see both the US and India place even greater pressure on Islamabad to arrest and sideline the LeT and its patrons in Pakistan.

Markey believes India won’t go to war as that isn’t in India’s interest. "Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has long believed that Pakistan’s weakness, not its strength, is the main threat to India. And a wide array of Indians also believes that Zardari is their best possible option. Destabilising his government won’t offer something better," Markey said. But Zardari’s noble intentions, Curtis argues, mean little unless they have the Pak army’s endorsement. Ultimately, Islamabad must dispel New Delhi’s belief that its security establishment foments violence in India.

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