National

Victory's Terminus

Who stopped the NDA train? Autowalas, fisherfolk, migrants....Mumbai's disenchanted.

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Victory's Terminus
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The Congress-NCP combine was on a roll. This alone explains how a novice like Milind Deora could defeat a veteran like Jayawantiben Mehta, and Sanjay Nirupam of the Sena, despite a spirited campaign, was no match for Sunil Dutt. Kirit Somaiya fell before Gurudas Kamat. The only saving grace was Mumbai South Central where Mohan Rawale defeated his NCP rival.

If you read between the lines, the result is a victory of reality over hype. It's true that Mumbai is home to more privileged people as well, who saw their lives soar. The most charitable estimates put this section at 10-15 per cent of the city's population. At the BJP chintan baithak this week, the conclusion reached was: the middle class had turned against the party. "Unemployment, VRS, PSU privatisation, no jobs, all are responsible. We underestimated the discontent," said party general secretary Pramod Mahajan. The NDA dropped six per cent votes from their 1999 ground.

Hit by the Govinda tornado, BJP's Ram Naik is yet to recover. For years, touted as the squeaky-clean, concerned-for-Mumbaikars MP, Naik's decisions as Union petroleum minister—rising fuel prices and disinvestment of oil companies—angered his middle-class supporters. Add to that the rage of the fisherfolk who agitated against the government policy of allowing international large-scale trawlers, and the ire of the local train commuters who saw Naik do nothing to make their life easier. Both these 'votebanks'—fisherfolk and train commuters—play an important role in Naik's constituency, Mumbai North. "Naik became a ghoshna and ashwasan (announcement and assurances) minister, a reflection of the government itself," says Vasai's social activist Nikki Cardozo.

Antagonise labour and it is a recipe for disaster. For, Mumbai is a city of work, jobs and livelihood. The organised sector alone, which employs around a million people, dropped over 10 per cent jobs. This sector accounts for just a fraction of the city's workforce but it is the most visible and articulate. The desperation, captured by trade unions last year on the eve of the World Social Forum, was successfully tapped into during the election campaign. "Economic policies showed the BJP to be very much with the wealthy and mncs. People saw this affecting their lives and they voted against it," says Vivek Monteiro, general secretary of the Maharashtra CITU.

There is also a rural-urban spillover, says sociologist and urban affairs researcher Prof Uday Mehta. Mumbai is a city of migrants who know "their India" back home is not at all shining. It adds to their disenchantment and raises the level of urban discontent, he explains. At times, the issue is local but gets transmorphed on to a Lok Sabha poll. Take Girgaum, where rehousing of slums was to take place on Jagannath Shankar Sheth Road. But a portion of this road falls in the Coastal Regulation Zone, which did not permit construction of low-cost houses. The MP, Jayawantiben Mehta, did not hear the slumdwellers out and paid for it at the hustings. In elections, small disappointments and discontent ride piggyback on national policies more than at any other time, especially if there is no overarching emotive issue. In Mumbai, as in other metros of India, the discontent of the people was matched only by the stark subterfuge of the NDA campaign. "India Shining was an emotion. Lots of us did not feel that emotion at all. For many of us, it was a lie," says Prof Mehta. That humble truth was brought home as a revelation to many.

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