National

Vaghela's Day Of Reckoning

The high-profile campaign for a crucial byelection is marred by sporadic violence and trickery

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Vaghela's Day Of Reckoning
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PERCHED at the very edge of the Rann of Kutch, the border villages of Jajan have little contact with the outside world—no electricity, no newspapers, no television and no regular bus service. But overnight, the parched, backward and hitherto neglected region has become a centre of attraction—because of its role in determining the fate of Gujarat's chief minister and, through him, that of the state.

Thousands of political workers are trekking to Jajan and other remote areas of the Radhanpur assembly segment, where Chief Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela single-handedly takes on the awesome organisational strength of the Sangh parivar. Sporadic violence, trickery, mutual spying and fiercely competitive mass contact programmes have lent the campaign a desperate intensity. The stakes are high: if Vaghela loses the April 5 bypoll, he must quit—and give the BJP the satisfaction of having humbled its most spectacular rebel.

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Directing the BJP offensive is Vaghela's bete noire and former Gujarat BJP general secretary, Narendra Modi. Banished to Punjab following Vaghela's rebellion, he has been recalled expressly for this contest. Countering him are Vaghela's chief strategists, RSS stalwarts Chimanbhai Shukla and Narsinh Padiyar (still nominally with the RSS despite their proximity to Vaghela).

On the face of it, the odds are stacked overwhelmingly in favour of Vaghela. His choice of Radhanpur was no accident—he passed up the Sarkhej byelection, preferring to have the seat vacated for him by independent MLA Lavinji Solanki. A Congress stronghold, Radhanpur has never been won by the BJP, even during the saffron surge of 1995. After initial misgivings, the state Congress has placed the Radhanpur setup at Vaghela's disposal. The 1.5 lakh-strong electorate is predominantly OBC, with 14,000 Muslim voters. Vaghela has assiduously wooed both sections.

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There is the added lure of a "ready-made chief minister", who can give Radhanpur the water it so desperately needs. "He's no ordinary candidate. He is the chief minister and behaves like one," says Shukla.

Another factor in Vaghela's choice of a border constituency, claims the BJP, is the strong presence of the underworld which controls the cross-border narcotics smuggling. They cite the recent return of mandrax smuggler Anirudhha Jadeja (who was subsequently arrested and is now in jail despite a Gujarat minister's alleged efforts to get him out) and the release of criminals on parole. Linking these to the Radhanpur campaign, they allege the underworld is providing the muscle-power for the campaign.

They claim MLA Bhav Singh Rathore's father, jailed under a narcotics charge, has been won over by Vaghela. Even as they speak, a campaign car with a smashed windscreen draws up. "We were stoned by RJP (Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party) workers," explains the driver. A series of such incidents has prompted the Election Commission to post an unprecedented six police companies in the constituency. Modi predicts another "Meham", but RJP workers say the complaints indicate "mental acceptance of defeat".

In sharp contrast to Vaghela, the BJP candidate is a political novice. A local lad, 27-year-old Shankarbhai Chaudhry is hardly the stuff of which giant-killers are made. Stiffer competition was expected, in the person of VHP leader Praveen Togadia.

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But Togadia, who became a household name after being jailed last month in connection with the attack on Vaghela sympathiser Atmaram Patel last year, was reluctant to contest. Apprehensive of Togadia's increasing prominence, state BJP leaders happily acquiesced to Modi's choice of the low-profile RSS worker. According to Modi, the BJP's electoral slogan explains why it picked a local boy. 'Jo jo Radhanpurni laaj jay nahin (Listen, Radhanpur's pride must be preserved)', he explains, conveys the message that local interests will be better served by the BJP nominee.

For all the manifest advantages, Vaghela is fighting with his back to the wall. The BJP's formidable network has adopted a seven-tiered strategy, with campaigning at successive levels: assembly, district, taluka and nagar palika, block, village, family and individual. The BJP has a grip on the local bodies, controlling the five district panchayats, 23 of the 35 taluka seats and one of the two nagar palikas. In addition, it has an impressive array of campaigners, whereas Vaghela is the sole attraction of the RJP.

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Modi, the BJP's master strategist, has ensured that the party—by allegedly sponsoring the majority of the 42 contestants—will control most of the polling agents present at each booth. The party has also sought to confuse the voter by fielding no less than three Vaghelas of their own. One Shankarsinh Nansinh Vaghela of the Gujarat Janata Party (symbol: sword and shield) is seventh on the ballot paper while Chief Minister Shankarsinh Laxmansinh Vaghela (symbol: rising sun) is eighth. The remaining Vaghelas are independents. The chief minister dismissed this ploy as "childish", but RJP workers admit there is scope for confusion.

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In an effort to target women voters, BJP Mahila Morcha activists have fanned out to the remotest villages. To arouse sympathy, they have lodged complaints of harassment by RJP votaries. The RJP is trying to counteract them through the 'Ahmedabad Women's Action Group', which has accused the BJP nominee of molesting girls at its hostel.

THE BJP is focusing on the fact that Vaghela, for all his attempts to project himself as a messiah of the OBCs, is not himself an OBC, whereas Shankarbhai Chaudhry is. This has compelled the RJP to play down the caste factor, instead of cap-italising on it as they had hoped to do.

The party is also harping on Vaghela and Solanki's "betrayal" of the BJP and of Radhanpur respectively. They point out that Solanki, and his nearest rival in 1995, the BJP's own Memabhai Chaudhry, both sold out to Vaghela in return for PSU chairmanships. Voters are urged not to be bought over similarly by pre-poll promises and show that they are "not for sale".

Rival contingents of religious leaders too have plunged into the campaign. Togadia, who rushed to Radhanpur the moment he was released on bail, struck a chord with his Hindutva pitch. Vaghela has a strong ally in sant Chaitanya Shambhu Maharaj. The BJP has tried to add a communal flavour by fanning tensions over the rape (and subsequent suicide) of a local Ahir girl by a Muslim youth two years ago. The fact that the government (under court orders) forcibly resettled the Muslim families who had been evicted by the Ahirs as revenge for the rape led to two clashes between Ahirs and Muslim youth last week. One, in Sindhara village, was serious enough to bring BJP leaders to the spot.

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Not surprisingly then, the security presence, including Central forces, is six times more than normal—there will be five securitymen at each of the 198 booths, with backups posted in the villages. Of the 75 booths identified as sensitive, 25 are hypersensitive. The Election Commission, monitoring the campaign almost as closely as the BJP is keeping track of Vaghela, was compelled to intervene when the state information department began distributing calendars plugging the RJP. The vernacular press has jumped onto the bandwagon, with Gujarat Samachar daily running a tirade against Vaghela and the Jung Rakhewal rooting for him. Both are being distributed free.

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The BJP's biggest drawback is internal dissension, despite the hardliners' public attempts (through Togadia) to mend fences with the moderates represented by former chief minister Sureshbhai Mehta. On the other hand, at least a section of the Congress has pitched in whole-heartedly for Vaghela, if for no other reason than to delay the return of the BJP to power in the state. A group opposed to state Congress chief Amarsinh Chaudhry would like to see Vaghela join the party if he wins and is convinced he could restore its strength.

Shukla has the last word on the importance of this bypoll. "This experiment, the springing of a third force from within the BJP itself, can take a big shape in Gujarat." And Radhanpur will determine the shape of the experiment.

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