National

To Split The Atom

The Congress pins its hopes on the BJP rebellion blooming. Will it?

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To Split The Atom
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The Age Of Dissent
  • Saurashtra, with 52 seats, is abuzz with rebel activity. The Patels, who have turned anti-Modi, dominate.
  • The 20 BJP MLAs denied tickets have gone to the Congress or to Uma Bharati's Bharatiya Janashakti Party
  • Rebel activity is being coordinated by the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti-a think-tank working in tandem with the Congress-to consolidate votes
  • The Congress has put together an anti-Modi front, but pundits aren't writing off the CM just yet

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Women wave as a chopper carrying Sonia (unseen) arrives at a rally near Ahmedabad

Former CM and rebel BJP leader Suresh Mehta, the principal force in working out a place for the rebels in the Congress (thanks to a personal equation with Sonia's political secretary Ahmed Patel), says his endeavour is to channelise all the anti-Modi forces so that they get "consolidated". The move to push the remaining rebel BJP legislators into Uma Bharati's fold is apparently aimed at dividing the saffron voteshare.

But Modi has been alive to the gameplan and is bent on shortcircuiting it. To that end, he's ensured tickets to 22 Patel and eight Koli candidates—which could take the sting out of the dissident campaign that the Patels are getting a raw deal. The CM has also obliged with tickets to two of the four Congress legislators who switched over to the BJP, Nimaben Acharya and Pabubha Manek. Another push has come from the hardline vhp, till now a rabid critic, coming out in Modi's support so as to keep the "so-called secular forces" at bay.

A key BJP leader ignored by Modi has been Fakirbhai Vaghela, former chairman of the National Scheduled Caste Commission who contested and lost in '02 from Dasada, in Surendranagar district. Though many of Vaghela's followers have quit the BJP, he's yet to make up his mind on what role he'll play in the polls. Ex-home minister Mahendra Trivedi, who hails from Bhavnagar and also figured in Modi's hit list, has also not been given a ticket. He's expected to announce his next move in the days to come.

The Congress, on its part, has cobbled together a semblance of an alliance to take on Modi. The importance accorded to the rebels is evident: besides accommodating the six saffron renegades, it has given an additional seat to one of their candidates. The complex seat allotments, of course, bring their share of grief. Muslim Congress leaders in the Kutch region are outraged at seats there going to BJP rebels. Similar reports have come in from seats allotted to upa ally, the ncp. Party leaders are in a quandary—it's impossible to accommodate everyone and the BJP rebels do have a key role to play.

The first phase is crucial for the Congress. The constituencies going to the polls are in Saurashtra, Kutch and South Gujarat. Saurashtra, with 52 seats in a house of 182, is where the Patel votes are concentrated. It's also where the BJP rebels wield considerable influence. If the anti-Modi front gains here, it will spell trouble for the Gujarat chief minister.

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