National

The Stability Hardsell

It’s back to the Pachmarhi route as the party rules out the prospect of coalition—for now

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The Stability Hardsell
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The post-monsoon mood of the electorate, the Congress fondly believes, will be benign. Summer snafus forgotten and hasty decisions taken in the heat of the moment forgiven, voters will be ripe for wooing with the Congress’ decade-old mantra of stable government.

After having the rug pulled from under its feet by a regional ally, the party has reverted to the stand it took at Pachmarhi, virtually rejecting the idea of a coalition. As senior party leader Sharad Pawar observed, "Coalitions haven’t been successful in this country. The mood in the party isn’t in favour of any national alliances."

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The Congress strategy is to (a) project the bjp government as having fallen of its own accord, thus proving that coalitions are unstable; (b) underline the contrast between a united Congress and the bjp khichdi and (c) ask for a clear mandate, putting off "adjustments" with allies till the last minute.

It was precisely because it didn’t want to experiment with a bjp-like arrangement that the party rejected the idea of a Congress-led coalition in the wake of Vajpayee’s ouster, party managers say. In the five-month hiatus before polls, the Congress hopes to live down the stigma of having precipitated yet another general election, work out covert alliances and counter the bjp’s promise of stability through a well-knit pre-poll front.

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To this end, Congress chief Sonia Gandhi mounted an attack on the bjp’s "huge, unwieldy, unprincipled, opportunistic coalition". But will the "Coalition=bjp=Instability" equation work, or will Congress wind up minus its allies, thus isolating itself?

Party managers have left a window open for "electoral arrangements" with regional parties—rpi, rjd, bsp and a "Dravidian" party—but refuse to clarify if this would mean giving them a share of power in the post-poll scenario. This isn’t the time for number-crunching, or statewise assessments of voteshare, they maintain. Electoral arrangements and post-poll realignments can always be worked out if the need arose.

Some senior leaders are apprehensive that if the bjp-led front emerges as the single largest formation, the President will be bound to call it first. Besides, anti-Congressism appears to be making a comeback, with the Janata Dal, Samajwadi Party, rsp and Forward Bloc opting for "equidistance" from both Congress and bjp.

While the Congress has taken the official stand that it will eschew national level tie-ups and leave poll adjustments to state units, senior leaders admit it has no option but to go in for overt or covert alliances in Bihar and Tamil Nadu.

The Bihar unit is split on the question of a tie-up with Laloo, particularly because it fears that the Yadav leader—whose sense of obligation to the party may prove short-lived—will fob the Congress off with a handful of seats. Despite his excellent rapport with former Congress chief Sitaram Kesri, he gave the party only eight seats, taunting its candidates as vote-katuas (those causing votes to be split) all the while.

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In Tamil Nadu, the party has yet to assess the benefits of a tie-up with J. Jayalalitha. The opposition to the dmk is strong after it virtually threw in its lot with the bjp. But the host of charges against the aiadmk leader and the feeling that she may have lost ground has made the Congress leadership pause. "The doors may be closed, but the windows are open," said a cwc member when quizzed about the dmk.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress has been virtually snubbed by the bsp, whose leaders have ruled out alliances. With a less-than-five-per cent voteshare in the last Lok Sabha polls, a bsp-Congress alliance would have worked to its advantage. But Mayawati has said she would prefer to go it alone and, subsequently use her Lok Sabha seats to negotiate a tie-up for the Assembly elections in UP.

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The party is banking heavily on UP, where it has no seats now. upcc chief Salman Khursheed, unmoved by irresponsible predictions of a Congress "sweep" of UP, says he’s sure of six seats. Beyond that, he’ll only say that "a window of opportunity" has opened up for the party.

Top of the mind is the realisation that this will be a do-or-die campaign. "It is going to be a very aggressive contest. Every seat will count," acknowledges senior leader Motilal Vora. The Congress has thus far failed to explain how it will virtually double its seats to reach the magic figure of 273, hoping to create a last-minute hawa (wave) that will defy all calculations.

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The party will have to contend with emotive issues, not the least of which is the charge of repeatedly thrusting polls on a reluctant nation. It’ll also have to contend with the Bofors bogey, resurrected in the shape of a presidential nod to the case against Madhavsinh Solanki. Its counter-attack will focus on the charges levelled by former advisor Mohan Guruswamy and by ousted Navy chief Vishnu Bhagwat.

Sonia seems to have learnt a lesson or two from the party’s recent debacle. She is now making an effort to carry all sections of the party with her, seeking advice from pcc chiefs, clp leaders and MPs, apart from cwc members.

Significantly, Arjun Singh has fallen from grace even as Pawar’s star has risen. Perceived as having bungled the formation of a Congress-led government, thus precipitating polls, he’s had to face flak within the party. He was removed as party spokesperson and kept out of the media committee after MPs criticised his performance on a TV show. It was felt that the Congress should not present a "tired, defeated face" and that television appearances should be handled by younger, media-savvy people.

Charge of the strategy panel on alliances was handed over to his bete noire, Pawar, who had been sidelined during talks with other "secular" parties on forming an alternative government. Now it’s Pawar—credited with having "managed" the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha and the bsp during the trust vote—rather than Arjun Singh who is summoned to 10, Janpath for consultations. This, even though Pawar spoke his mind on the forthcoming polls, predicting a fractured mandate unless the concerns of underprivileged sections were addressed. The message is clear: not only can he deliver the largest single bloc of Congress MPs from any state, but he can also use his considerable skills for negotiation to hammer out poll adjustments.

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