Making A Difference

The Smaller Shoals

Why the Third World would rather that the Third Front won

Advertisement

The Smaller Shoals
info_icon
What Nations Want
  • Small, less powerful nations prefer a non-Congress, non-BJP government
  • They say they are ignored by the Congress and BJP, which are inclined to court big powers
  • Big powers want either a Congress or BJP-led government. Safer for their investments; they, unlike the Left, aren’t ideologically opposed to them
  • Among the immediate neighbours, Pakistan wants a Congress-led coalition and Bangladesh a stable government

***

A

Neither courted nor commanding much media space (or mindspace) in New Delhi, smaller nations feel a Third Front regime could help cool India’s ardour for the big powers. "It’s difficult to grab the attention of the Indian foreign policy establishment for a country that is neither a big power nor has gas or oil," the ambassador of a North African nation laments. He says India ignores countries like his though they share common values of democracy and desire to build multi-cultural and pluralistic societies. "It’s always an uphill task for us to find issues that could lead to a meaningful engagement with key figures in South Block," the ambassador adds.

Advertisement

Similar is the complaint of many Arab countries, despite them boasting rich energy resources. Such was New Delhi’s fervour for the nuclear deal that the UPA government spent the better part of its five-year term wooing the US and some of the other P-5 countries. Though India claims to have traditional ties with the Arabs, West Asia wasn’t really on the itinerary of top Indian diplomats.

Indeed, India’s engagement with both Africa and West Asia has been confined to dealing with them in groups or blocs, more so as a belated course-correction, as evinced in the organising of the India-Africa Summit and a meet with the Arab nations last year. Unfortunately for India, most ambassadors remain unimpressed. They, therefore, feel a new coalition, in which neither the BJP nor the Congress is dominant, is most likely to arrest, if not reverse, New Delhi’s foreign policy emphasis on the US, other western allies, and Israel. And, hopefully, prompt it to develop its neglected relations with "traditional friends".

Advertisement

But even these smaller countries, like the big powers, want a new coalition to boast numbers requisite for stability. In their quest to be politically correct (diplomats aren’t supposed to comment on the internal matters of another country), the wish for stability is couched in expressions of admiration for Indian democracy. "For more than six decades the democratic process has been carried forward by the Indian people successfully. We hope the new government that comes will be able to lead to stability and progress," Ahmed Salem Al-Wahishi, ambassador of the Arab League in Delhi, told Outlook. But the absence of an overwhelming favourite in the elections elicits a cautious response from him. "All governments, from the time of India’s independence, have been committed to the principled position of the Palestinian struggle and taken steps to deepen and strengthen ties with the Arab world," Al-Wahishi says, hoping for a continuation of the same policy.

The confusion over the outcome of the election has diplomats of all nations anxious. While the sheer size of the Indian electorate—714 million—leaves most foreign missions in New Delhi awestruck, the presence of scores of political parties and thousands of candidates have only added to their discomfiture. "It’s the most confusing scenario," says a French diplomat who returned to Delhi after travelling to different state capitals to make sense of the election. "The more I hear leaders like Jayalalitha, Nitish Kumar and Sharad Pawar, the more confused I get," the diplomat says. "They say something today, quite the opposite the following day."

Advertisement

info_icon


Amre Moussa, secy gen of Arab League, with Pranab Mukherjee

Apart from France, many of the bigger missions—the US, UK, Germany, Russia, China and others—have sent their ‘observers’ to different states for an on-the-spot assessment of trying to pick the winner. They have been exchanging notes with each other and talking to friends in the Indian media and political parties to prepare for the eventual winning combination. Conversations with them reveal they feel the Congress has a clear edge, but wouldn’t be surprised if the BJP catches up in the next few days. And they rate as remote the chances of the Third Front or a new non-Congress, non-BJP coalition coming to power.

Advertisement

Yet a caveat must be thrown in: since diplomats have greater comfort dealing with the Congress and BJP, as also with friends in the media, their assessment could be dogged by biases against regional players. Though they have engaged with regional outfits in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and Bihar, scepticism of how meaningful a role they could play outside the Congress or BJP umbrella persists.

Many western countries are worried about what a Left-propelled government comprising Mayawati’s BSP or Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party could have in store for them. "We have seen the role of the Left during the nuclear agreement and it doesn’t evoke much confidence about what they might do in future," says a diplomat from a west European country. Such concerns are expressed by countries like Japan, which speaks from the experience of having invested in Bengal for years. "If the Left plays an important role in the next coalition government we aren’t very sure what will happen to economic reforms, particularly in banking and insurance," says an East Asian diplomat.

Advertisement

Surprisingly, most of India’s immediate neighbours prefer a "strong government" in New Delhi. Pakistan favours a Congress-led government, hoping for a prompt revival of the peace process as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had invested much thought and energy in it. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka too favour a strong government. A Sri Lankan diplomat says since his country has dealt with different shades of the Indian political spectrum, they are quite confident of their equation with whoever rides to power in the coming days. A Bangladeshi diplomat, however, harps on stability. "We know the regional parties will play an important role in forming the next government. But unless there is stability in Delhi we can’t hope to pursue and develop good neighbourly relations."

In these varying responses, it’s perhaps possible to draw a few quick conclusions for the new ruling formation—don’t ignore smaller nations, don’t get dazzled by the big powers, and don’t forget the neighbourhood which is in tumult.

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement