Making A Difference

The Revolt: Act II, Scene I

Arab Spring: reasonable doubts cool hopes

Advertisement

The Revolt: Act II, Scene I
info_icon

Torrents Of Spring

  • Tunisia: Moderate Islamists elected to power
  • Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood leads in the election; army hopes to retain influence
  • Yemen: President Saleh promises to step down, but can still go back on his promise
  • Bahrain: Discontent, schism between Shias & Sunnis persist
  • Syria: Protests gets bloodier
  • UAE: Sops offered to people

***

In the sprawling lobby of the snazzy white marble-and-steel structure of the Yas Viceroy Hotel are gathered some 100 foreign journalists, invited to Abu Dhabi for attending the 40th birth anniversary of the United Arab Emirates. Taking a break from sessions in which the UAE is extolled as an “oasis of opportunity” with a per capita income of $50,000, the journalists invariably turn to talking about the Arab Spring, its clear gains and its rather nebulous future.

Advertisement

In many ways, the Arab Spring has morphed into a winter of uncertainty. The region provides a fuzzy picture, say most journalists. Tunisia was from where the democratic movement began; it has had a general election in which moderate Islamists have triumphed. Egypt has had one round of election, but the army is keen to retain its role in governance. NATO has helped topple Libya’s Col Gaddafi, but the elections there can only be held next year. The Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh could still renege on his promise to step down, as he has in the past. Moreover, Bahrain, Kuwait, Syria and a clutch of other countries are caught in a state of flux.

Advertisement

That’s why journalists at the Yas Viceroy Hotel wonder: will the raging popular protests usher in democratically elected, inclusive governments? UAE foreign minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan says, “Tunisia is a benchmark for the Arab countries that are seeking a change.” His reference is to the peaceful transition in Tunisia, which held its first democratic election without convulsions in society. But Samy Ghorbal, a freelance journalist from Tunisia, wonders, “I’m not so sure whether what we are witnessing is a change for the better.” Ghorbal argues that despite the elections there is no clear indication if it will lead to greater job opportunities, a better economy and a better life for people.

Partly encouraging signs came from Egypt, which had its tryst with democratic and fair elections for the first time in six decades. The transformation will be long-drawn; Egypt will have to wait till June for its parliamentarians, the last of whom should get elected in January, to frame a new Constitution and elect a new president. And in the next six months, sceptics say, skids can be put under the wheels of democracy there.

This is why Arshin Adib-Moghaddam of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies says, “So far there is one historic manifestation of the Arab Spring: a nascent democracy in Tunisia. The old oligarchs and the political elites have tried to contain their civil societies from the outset.” But, he adds, there is a new kind of political will that is irresistibly powerful and has been carried into the heart of the states by combative civil societies. “No state in West Asia and North Africa can be oblivious of these developments,” Adib-Moghaddam concludes.

Advertisement

Yet uncertainty looms about the nature of elected governments. Tunisia and Egypt have
underscored the rise of Islamists and their likely dominance over the emerging democratic structures, fanning anxiety about whether they would adhere to secularism and promote inclusive development. Till a few months ago, Islamists and secularists had banded together to oust autocratic regimes, but were unable to unite under a common leadership to consolidate the gains of the Arab Spring. The disunity gave Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood a definite edge, boasting as they do a vibrant organisation. Though suppressed by autocratic regimes, they had a network of workers who carved a substantial support base through social activities such as running schools and hospitals and assisting people in crisis.

Advertisement

But the Islamists aren’t a monolith either. With the Brotherhood engaged in a battle for supremacy with the Salafis, a more orthodox Islamist group, there are rumours that the army in Egypt has chosen what they perceive as a lesser evil—the Brotherhood. This kind of deal between the army and moderate Islamists is likely in other countries as well.

The deal between the Islamists and the army is not just about ensuring moderate politics. Many feel the generals have brokered a deal to protect their own privileges and retain their influence on foreign policy, as they had under the previous dispensations. Backing the army, some believe, are the US and its allies, who feel they can better protect their high stakes in the region under a new order in which the army retains an influential role. The Arab armies and the West have had a long relationship. Former Indian ambassador Talmiz Ahmad, who is now based in Dubai, says, “It’s interesting to note that, unlike in the past, the US and the West are not demonising the Muslim Brotherhood.”

Advertisement

But others argue that the West does not want to scuttle the chance of Islamists forming governments chosen through democratic elections, apprehensive as they are of repeating the mistake they committed in Algiers earlier. There, in the 1990s, their machinations to prevent the Islamists from coming to power led to years of violence and political instability. The other reason could be the confidence the western countries draw from Turkey, where the Islamists have encouraged both democracy and pro-market policies.

Analysts worry about the capability of new dispensations to formulate economic policies that could meet the people’s aspirations. This is particularly worrisome, as nearly 40 per cent of the population in the Arab world is below 15; the region also accounts for 25 per cent of the world’s unemployed between 15 and 24 years. As N. Janardhan, a political analyst in the UAE, says, “Translating partial political gains into partial economic benefits that would reasonably satisfy the people is a tall order.”

But even rich countries like the UAE are wary of the nagging discontent amongst their people. Even as the UAE contributed forces to assist the Saudis in quelling the popular protest in Bahrain, Abu Dhabi took urgent measures to mollify people, following a survey which showed the indigenous population wanted better health, education and housing facilities. Some 2,00,000 new jobs will be soon created. The Abu Dhabi ruler has also recently pardoned five Emirate bloggers who were imprisoned for campaigning on the internet for democracy. Says the foreign minister, “It shows we are a tolerant society but it also gives out a clear signal to warn those who try to abuse the system.”

Advertisement

One can call this a carrot-and-stick policy adopted by some Arab countries to foreclose the chances of open rebellion in the squares and streets. But one thing is clear—the old way of ruling is on its way out. Call it the thaw of Spring.

Tags

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement

    Advertisement