National

The Pendulum Swings Left

Crippled by the Antony-Karunakaran rift, the Congress may find a late resurrection difficult

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The Pendulum Swings Left
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WITH victory margins in most elections in Kerala wafer thin, poll predictions make for a tricky business. In fact, there have been instances when a  candidate deemed to be an outright winner has lost by a handful of votes. As the state prepares for simultaneous assembly and parliamentary polls, pundits foresee a neck-to-neck race between the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF). So much so that even leaders of both fronts are guarded in their claims and counter-claims. Says Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) President Vylar Ravi: "It will be a close fight but we will emerge victorious." Similarly, former chief minister and veteran CPI(M) leader E.K. Nayanar, who is anchoring the LDF campaign, predicts a "tough fight" but is "certain of a victory for the Left".

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As campaigning hots up for the 140 assembly and 20 Lok Sabha seats, the LDF has reason to be a shade more hopeful than its rival. The CPI(M)-led front has seized the advantage by ironing out whatever dissent there was among its partners and stands unified in its campaign. The UDF has lost much ground after failing to put its house in order and the differences between Chief Minister A.K. Antony and Union Industries Minister K. Karunakaran are severely undermining its prospects. Points out a KPCC officebearer: "The snake-and-mongoose game between Antony and Karunakaran will finish us. The high command should have given a safe seat in Andhra Pradesh to Karunakaran and kept him away from Kerala."

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In fact, during his pre-campaign discussions with the Prime Minister, Ravi had laid emphasis on the importance of the two leaders working unitedly. But no such unity appears on the horizon and even as the distribution of seats was being finalised, the National Democratic Party (NDP), a political party of the upper caste Nairs, decided to pull out of the UDF. The NDP's exit is being linked to its proximity to Karunakaran. Antony admits that the NDP pulled out because of him. "As far as the NDP is concerned, I'm the problem. They will rejoin the UDF on the day I resign as chief minister," he says. But he takes pains to play down any effect this could have on his front's prospects.

Not so Karunakaran, who is quick to retort that he is not "foolish to say that Nair votes are not a loss". The Karunakaran camp, according to Antony supporters, has a one-point programme: to teach Antony a lesson. Says a senior Congress leader: "This is a classic case of cutting off your nose to spite your face."

And the NDP will take away a fair chunk of UDF votes. Nairs have traditionally voted for the UDF but this time they may go the LDF way. To add to the Congress-led front's woes, the All Kerala Dheevara Sabha, a political group headed by V. Dinakaran with a large following among the fisher-folk, has withdrawn its support to the UDF. Interestingly, Dinakaran is Karunakaran's man and in Shertallai, from where Antony is contesting for an assembly seat, the Sabha has a 50,000 vote bank. Again, Dina-karan's decision is said to have been taken at Karunakaran's behest.

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AND then, of course, there is trouble from within for the Congress. On April 7, the Congress had to suspend two former state ministers, N. Rama-krishnan and N. Sudaram Nadar, for refusing to pull out of the fray despite a directive from the party high command. Lesser-known rebels are spread in constituencies throughout the state and they are likely to cut into UDF votes. The UDF is contesting all 140 assembly seats, with the Congress fielding its candidates in 93 constituencies. It has left 47 seats for its other five partners. The front is contesting all 20 Lok Sabha seats too.

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The UDF's sole trump card is that Antony is perceived as Mr Clean and even his adversaries agree that his integrity is above board. Congressmen point out that in the one year Antony has put in as chief minister, he has improved the image of the Congress and the UDF. And though described as populist, his prohibition policy has struck a sympathetic chord among women. But the question remains: can Antony's clean image alone pull the UDF through? Maybe not, say political observers, given the serious divide in the Congress.

In contrast, the LDF has its house in order. The CPI(M), which is the major partner in the LDF, is fielding 76 candidates for the assembly polls and has left the remaining seats for five of its front members. The only major crisis before the LDF is the split in the state unit of the Janata Dal. But the front's crisis managers have come to an understanding with the Janata Dal rebels. Thus, it is not as if the LDF did not have its share of internal bickerings, but it managed to work out most squabbles before campaigning started.

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The LDF is also trying to woo the upper castes by promising 10 per cent reservation for the economically deprived, irrespective of caste. This could just tilt the balance as the higher castes have traditionally voted for the Congress.

Another thing in the LDF's favour is that Kerala has never voted a party in power for a second term. Indeed, CPI(M) leaders themselves admit that had Karunakaran continued as chief minister for a full term and not been replaced by Antony, it would have been a veritable cakewalk for them. However, the Antony factor has put the UDF on a better wicket, but, as mentioned earlier, even this is being negated by the infighting between the Karunakaran and Antony camps.

Besides, the ongoing power crisis will work against the UDF. A 100-per cent power cut on extra high tension users was imposed on March 26, a day before elections were announced, affecting all major industries in the state. The government was also forced to impose power cuts to curtail domestic consumption. The UDF government, however unfairly, is seen as responsible for the power crisis.

And so, while it is difficult to pronounce either front as a prospective winner or loser at this stage, political observers agree that the UDF has frittered away a part of its advantage and that the LDF should see this translating into votes in its favour.

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