National

Success Has A Maha Face

BJP sweeps the Maharashtra municipal polls with CM Fadnavis as strategist and the poster boy

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Success Has A Maha Face
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“Ha majha shabda ahe (this is my word to you),” reads a hoarding with a picture of a smiling Devendra Fadnavis. These hoardings dotted the walls of Mumbai and neig­hbouring towns during the campaign for the city’s recent municipal elections. In ­another time, a smirking CM’s blow-up across Mumbai’s streets would not have been considered an ideal pitch for a local body’s election campaign; Fadnavis is not even from Mumbai, he hails from Nagpur. But, times have changed, and so has the ­political scenario in Maharashtra.

The BJP has exceeded all expectations by winning eight out of ten municipal corporations in the state. The Congress and the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) have performed poorly, though they have managed to do well in the zila parishad (ZP) elections. In the BMC election, the BJP managed to bag 82 seats, just two short of the Shiv Sena’s 84. This is a tremendous increase for the BJP, which had won only 31 seats in the previous BMC election. This time the BJP was contesting alone, breaking its 25-year-old alliance with the Shiv Sena. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena is looking at a devil-and-the-deep-sea situation of aligning with ‘non-Hindutva’ parties to give the BJP a fight. The only other option for the Sena would be to swallow pride and ­request the BJP to take them back, but that is highly unlikely.

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The endless series of Fadnavis hoardings indicates the BJP is taking its earlier slogan “Delhit Narendra, Maharashtrat Devendra” (Narendra in Delhi, Devendra in Maharashtra) very seriously. “We all continue to follow Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ­vision. The BMC campaign and even other campaigns in the rest of the state were designed accordingly,” says Maha­rashtra BJP vice-president Mangal Prabhat Lodha. The agenda of the BJP for the BMC polls is summed up in two magic words—which had the desired ­effect a few years ago in Prime Minister Modi’s general election campaign—transparency and development.

“The strategy to project Fadnavis as the face of the campaign has worked,” says senior BJP leader Madhav Bhandari. “People have reposed trust in the CM. They want to vote for development. They feel it is easier to get work done if the same party is at the Centre, state and the local levels.” Increasingly, the hyper-­local issues, the key factors determining the vote in civic elections, have been ­replaced by the ‘bigger picture’.

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Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray (left)

Photograph by PTI

Political analysts believe that the strategy of pushing a consistent and sel­ective “mudda” (agenda) by only a few campaigners—this time just Deve­ndra Fadnavis—has had impact in the previous three polls—not to mention the gains for the CM himself, who faced opposition even within the party until a few months ago.

Swaraj India leader Yogendra Yadav says the BJP has managed to create a strong image of an alternative for voters. “Fadnavis has put in a lot of effort and the party has worked towards promoting him on all fronts. But this single face strategy is bound to create problems in coming years because the entire burden of performance will lie on one person,” says Yadav. “Everyone talks about collective leadership but actual actions are different. It is not that they have suddenly got this victory. The BJP has been working quietly to become the single largest party in Maharashtra. Earlier, the language of Pramod Mahajan and L.K. Advani was that of coalition politics. Modi shunned the idea and one can see the change, all the way to the ­municipal corporation level.”

Strategy and campaign apart, demonetisation—which hurt rural Maha­rash­tra, which is dependent on district cooperative banks that were completely jammed by the RBI—did not have much negative impact. While BJP leaders like to say it is because the people believe in the ‘transparency’ agenda, opposition leaders admit that it is so because there wasn’t a formidable option among them. Infighting, charges of corruption and leadership crisis are some of the reasons that ensured the Congress and the NCP did not present any challenge to BJP at urban centres. On top of this, several local leaders have jumped the ship to help the lotus bloom.

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“People were affected. Farmers continue to suffer because of the toor dal crisis. Their produce is not getting even the minimum support price! It’s a myth that investments and opportunities are coming to Vidarbha because of this CM. But who does one vote for?” says Vijay Jawandia, veteran farmers’ activist from Vidarbha. “There was no credible opposition. Farmers have been suffering because of policies and demonetisation but perhaps they don’t expect any better from other candidates.”

The Congress and the NCP have been reduced to their worst numbers in a long time in eight out of ten municipal corporations. Even at the ZP levels, though they have retained most of their strongholds, the BJP has made inroads eating into NCP-Congress’ seats. “We are in alliance with Congress for ZPs and the BJP has not succeeded in rural areas. They have played caste politics everywhere and that is how they have won. We will not support the BJP,” says NCP spokesperson Nawab Malik on speculation of proximity between the BJP and NCP and a possibility of outside support in Mumbai. “We have just nine seats. ” Malik also conceded that losing in Pune was a blow.

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Another curious factor is that of the Maratha Morchas, rumoured to be largely supported by the NCP to isolate the Bramhin leaders in the BJP, including the CM. “The morchas further deepened divides and instead of Bramhins vs others, the state now looks at Bramhins vs Marathas vs others. Even in the ‘others’, separate castes are insisting on separate demands. But the BJP projected Maratha candidates and leaders, so even the caste vote may have helped it,” says a government official from Aurangabad.

Furthermore, analysts feel that most people who were disillusioned with the BJP because of demonetisation, voted for the Sena and not Congress-NCP. Though it may have a bearing on minorities and Dalits, for some it appears to be a masterstroke, which will be proven right if they do come back together.

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So was it all strategy and planning and nothing else? There was some work and some promise of future work too. Latur, a traditional Congress stronghold, saw the worst water crisis last year. But news of water being transported in trains to Latur was well received. Officials and locals say BJP minister Sambhaji Patil Nilangekar has been working consistently since then. This has created a ­favourable image for the BJP.

A Latur local points out to the lack of leadership in the Congress. “Till Vilasrao Deshmukh was alive it was different. Amit Deshmukh isn’t seen here much. He’s regarded as elitist and doesn’t have the same connect as his father,” he says. “Not to mention the Jalyukta Shivar Yojana (water conservation project) of the government. I think that has clicked.” While the efficacy of the project is yet to be judged and in many areas people speak of it not having worked, there is no denying that the mega launch of the project followed by a satisfactory monsoon (after four years of drought) has had some positive impact among voters.

Though BJP is said to be weaker than Congress and NCP and Shiv Sena in rural Maharashtra, the central government’s focus on urbanisation has lent itself to change the scenario in corporations in smaller cities. “It is Modi’s agenda to urb­anise more than 60 per cent of India,” says Yadav. “Tehsils and towns are getting conver­ted into cities. Latur, Aurangabad and Nanded are seen as pot­ential mega cities. Towns like Thane, Pimpri, Chinchwad and Nashik have seen growth. Other areas like Akola, Amravati, Kolhapur and Sangli are also in focus. The fund allocation from the Centre for these areas is also a factor.”

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In Mumbai, a 10 per cent increase in voting is said to have helped the BJP. Though the increased percentage was also because of trimming of voter lists—reports of nearly 11 lakh missing voter names have come out. Also, on at least 12 seats, the split of votes between Sena and the MNS has benefited the BJP. 

“Programmes conducted by NGOs and the election commission have resulte­d in increased voting. Though the problem of a hung BMC has cropped up,” says Sharad Kumar, state coordinator for the Association for Democratic Reforms. “We need to create a strong third front of citizens apart from corporators and administrators because there are lapses on both fronts. We are forming groups all over to create a strong citizens’ watch.”

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The competition for who will have its mayor of Mumbai is clearly between the BJP and the Shiv Sena. The decision will be taken on March 8. 

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