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Siege At The Gates Of Oudh

Will the BSP emerge as the single-largest party? Is the SP over? Will the BJP, or the Congress, be kingmaker?<a href=pti_coverage.asp?gid=50 target=_blank> Updates</a>

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Siege At The Gates Of Oudh
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The Scenarios
  • BSP: It is aiming for 150 seats. That would be quite a stretch, but it may well be the single-largest party.
  • SP: Is losing a percentage of its vote-some desperate turns are likely. The worst case is 100-minus seats.
  • BJP: Would jump with joy if it manages 125 seats. The last phase of Gorakhpur-Ghazipur-Mau belt is crucial.
  • Congress: Will improve its vote share-unlikely to cross 40 seats. It could play a role in government formation with Mayawati.

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Outlook
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But if the BJP and BSP are gaining ground it is due to the growing anti-incumbency against Mulayam Singh's government. If the SP loses 3 to 4 per cent of its vote, it could lead to losing several seats. Yet Mulayam is a tough fighter and his party has organisational depth down to the panchayats. So the SP will not be wiped out in the state, though it seems poised to lose the state government.IAS officials and some SP workers are talking of desperate scenarios where SP could back the BJP in order to stop Mayawati from forming a government. But this would amount to Mulayam cutting his nose to stay out of jail where Mayawati has promised to send him.

His Muslim supporters would certainly desert him. In Allahabad town, one of Mulayam's Muslim dons presides. Atiq Ahmad, history-sheeter, alleged to have ordered the murder of BSP MLA Raju Pal, is the MP from Phulpur, a seat once held by Jawaharlal Nehru. A law unto himself, he operates not from the SP office but a mammoth structure known as the Atiq Ahmad headquarters. The huge strapping don arrives wearing a scarf like a bandana around his head. Like most criminals who have made it in politics, he's blunt and to the point. Mulayam would be a fool to ever back the BJP, says Ahmad. He is still ruing the firing he ordered on kar sevaks. "I would strongly advise him against any such thinking."

Next he says, Mayawati is being over-rated. "I don't think she can cross 150 seats." Ahmad adds that in any case there is too much being made out of Brahmins. "There are hardly a few thousand Brahmins in most seats but if you ask them...they are clever so they will give double the figure." So what will happen in UP? "President's rule. It would suit the Congress too." Suddenly his phone rings. It is Raja Bhaiyya, the ultimate symbol of Thakur power whom Mayawati had once thrown into jail. The Raja is standing again from Kunda in neighbouring Pratapgarh district. He's called to ask Atiq Ahmad to visit, campaign and assist.

Would it suit the Congress to impose President's rule? Another Allahabad resident, BJP's Murli Manohar Joshi, does not think so. The former physics professor has worked another calculation. It is important for the Congress to control the electoral college of Uttar Pradesh since the presidential election has to be completed by July this year. So if Mayawati and Congress are within striking distance of a government, she will be sworn in on May 14. "After keeping her afloat for some months the Congress can always withdraw support and impose President's rule," says Joshi. One little detail that cannot be forgotten is that a new government must be sworn in on May 14. Or else it's President's rule. Since the elections have been staggered till the last possible date, there will be no time for first attempts and second attempts at government formation, particularly as the governor is not likely to be inclined to give the SP and BJP a chance.

But the Mayawati-Congress scenario depends as much on her getting 140-plus seats as on the Congress touching 40. The Rahul Gandhi roadshows have certainly made people take another look at the Congress. The party is expected to improve in Jhansi, Bareilly, Sultanpur, Mathura, Amethi and Rae Bareli. And there is considerable evidence that in some seats Muslims have shifted from SP to Congress. Yet in most of the state, the Congress is still not a factor. The party's gameplan is to improve its voteshare, get a few more seats but more significantly dent Mulayam and get him out of office. Ajay Pal Singh, a local raja, is standing from Dalmau on a Congress ticket. His constituency falls within Rae Bareli district, perhaps the reason he switched from BJP to Congress. He says that "till now the assembly segments within Rae Bareli and Amethi were not won by the Congress. This time there will be a big change and the party will sweep the assemblies too in the Nehru-Gandhi family seats." Local party workers agree. Across the state there is goodwill towards the Congress among Muslims, urban voters and Brahmins. But nobody will waste their vote. They will only vote the Congress in seats where the party looks like a winner.

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For Mayawati and Mulayam, it's a blood feud they would like to settle on the spot with the lady having declared that she would throw Mulayam, Amar Singh, Raja Bhaiyya and the whole gang into jail as soon as she is in power. Even the Congress may want her to squeeze Mulayam. But such outright politics of vendetta has a way of haunting you. When the boot is on the other foot, Mayawati's Taj corridor scam charges can always be revived and she too could in the future land in jail. Indeed, people joked in Allahabad that Mulayam produced an illustrious list of jail birds for a public rally—Jayalalitha, Om Prakash Chautala, Natwar Singh (involved in the Volcker scam) besides Chandrababu Naidu who is not in this club.

But for the national parties like the BJP and Congress, Uttar Pradesh is part of a larger political game. The BJP had been putting up a united front till Atal Behari Vajpayee landed up for the only rally he addressed in his Lok Sabha seat Lucknow in the course of this campaign. As Rajnath Singh and Kalyan Singh stood behind him with poker faces, Vajpayee let the cat out of the bag: "People say that Kalyan and I don't get along. They say I did not come to campaign because I am angry with Kalyan. This is very unfair. Kalyan is an old associate. In the future too, he will remain a close colleague—I wanted to campaign but I was not allowed." Vajpayee's words hung in the warm Lucknow night. The same day Mulayam and Sonia too addressed rallies in Lucknow. At the end of a day of such frenetic political activity, no resident of Lucknow was any wiser on the verdict.

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