Making A Difference

Russia Unpacks A Matryoshka Doll For Pak

Russia’s decision to hold military exercises with ­Pakistan in disputed PoK marks a shift in regional ­balance­. Now, India can’t take oldest ally for granted.

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Russia Unpacks A Matryoshka Doll For Pak
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Rus-Pak

The Handshake

  • Last year, Russia agreed to sell Mi-35 attack helicopters
  • Pak wants to buy Su-35 combat aircraft

Past

  • 14,000 Soviet soldiers killed and 35,000 wounded in Afghanistan between 1979 and 1989 by Pak-sponsored Mujahideen

India-Russia

  • 70% of Indian arms imports from Russia
  • 39% of all Russian arms exports are to India
  • India top arms importer in the world

Source: SIPRI

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As Cold War-era foes Pakistan and Russia started ‘Fri­e­ndship 2016’, the first-ever joint military exercises bet­ween the two countries, ­India’s relationship status with its long-term ally, Moscow, shifted from the officially declared ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’ to ‘complicated’.

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Coming days after the Uri terror attack, in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed, the only saving grace for New Delhi was that Russia agreed to cancel one leg of the ­fortnight-long training drill—in the heights of Rattu in Gilgit-Baltistan, part of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK)—and hold the exercises only at Cherat in Nowshera ­district, in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The fact that Russia had issued perhaps the strongest statement following the Uri attacks, naming Pakistan, began to pale as its troops landed in Rawalpindi—that too for what was billed as joint ­counter-terrorism exercises.

It was all about the timing. At a time when India was making an all-out effort to isolate Pakistan in the global arena as the fountainhead of terrorism in the region, Russia went ahead with the joint exercises despite the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) having communicated India’s misgivings to Moscow. While India would have expected its oldest ally and “best friend” to take a position against Pakistan—and help India’s cause of making it an international pariah—Moscow’s unstated message to New Delhi was that the warm historic ties between the two countries did not mean anything could be taken for granted.

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What exactly does this set of events signify? Has Russia managed to confer on Pakistan greater ‘strategic depth’ in the region—that much-cherished goal of the Rawalpindi brains trust? Has India lost a trusted ally of over half-a-century—or at least partly forfeited the natural claim it made on its support? Has New Delhi’s increased proximity to one superpower set in motion a rearrangement of the tectonic plates in another hemisphere? After all, even a limited compact between China and Russia, with Pakistan as a ­staging post, means the world map suddenly looks diff­erent for New Delhi.

Nothing so drastic, claim sources in South Block—they are “concerned, but not unduly so” by the developments. They are certain the air will get cleared during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to India for the BRICS summit in mid-October. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi will raise the issue with President Putin during the bilateral between the two countries,” says an official. “India and Russia are long-standing strategic partners and have always stood by each other.” For all the brave words, it’s becoming quite clear that the Indian esta­blishment is finding it difficult to realign itself to the changed strategic scenario.

Though the engagement between Russia and Pakistan had been increasing over the years, the ongoing exercises ramp it up to a new level—and obviously come at the cost of Indian sensitivities. Yes, its schedule was drawn up earlier—but the fact that Russia had the option of cancelling the whole drill in the post-Uri scenario, and chose to go ahead, says something. If the timing was not entirely intended, the original choice of venue cannot be held to be devoid of significance. The strategically located Gilgit-Baltistan is part of the Northern Areas of Kashmir, legally Indian territory and, even in the most neutral description, “disputed land”. For Russia to even contemplate a joint drill with Pakistan in that geography implies a degree of willingness to put a finger on an old Indian wound.

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According to security experts, this betokens a strategic reorientation of the entire South Asian region, which could also involve Iran. It’s not just about the expanding Islamabad-Moscow relations, which signal a growing cooperation between Russia and China and seem set to change the geopolitical rules of engagement. And that is not all India needs to handle as strategic relations in the region get rewired.

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Firm Handshake

Pak PM Nawaz Sharif meets Russian President Putin

Photograph by Getty Images

“China’s chief defence partner is now Russia and it is probably nudging Moscow towards Islamabad,” says a former diplomat, who did not want to be identified. “You have the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and then the umbrella of the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation). Led by Russia and China, the regional security group allowed entry to India and Pakistan earlier this year. Iran is likely to join the SCO soon. With India raising the Balochistan issue, things get a bit tangled. Iran comes into the picture as Chabahar (the port in south-eastern Iran) is a Baloch-majority area. In this time of changing equations, India needs to be careful or it will find itself hemmed in.”

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Nandan Unnikrishnan, vice-president of Observer Research Foundation and a Russia expert, says alarm bells should ring in South Block and the government must take steps to stop the drift in relations between New Delhi and Moscow. New Delhi should have seen it coming and not got caught by surprise. “India wants to be a great player. It has been juggling many balls at the same time. Nothing wrong in that, but then you have to keep an eye on all of them and not let a single ball fall. Somewhere, India seems to have taken its attention off Russia and the ball is slipping out of its grip,” he tells Outlook.

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But what exactly is the rationale behind the Russian roulette spinning thus? Why would Moscow cross the Karakoram passes to a territory that has, for a century and more, been a key Western wedge in the Great Game? Fact is, it has become a geopolitical imperative for Russia to eng­age with Pakistan. “Pakistan is a problem for the region and the Russians know that. The situation in Afghanistan is det­eriorating. With a possible spillover in Central Asia, it can damage Russian interests. Since Pakistan is part of the problem, Russia believes it can be a part of the solution. Afghanistan cannot be solved for Russia without Pakistan on board. Russia has discovered that India doesn’t have that kind of leverage. So maybe Russia views engagement with Pakistan to be in its best interest,” says Unnikrishnan.

The wider dynamics are relevant here. While India has been expanding its diplomatic base, improving its relations with the West, Russia’s relationship with the West has steadily declined, touching critical levels with the Ukraine flashpoint amid nervy calibration of interests in the Middle East. This ebb and flow seems to have pushed Russia closer to China, which in turn probably persuaded it about the charms of having a strategic outreach with Pakistan.

India may also be collateral damage: Russia is probably sending a message of defiance to the US by increasing its eng­agement with Pakistan and China. “Russia is being dismissed as a regional power by the US. China is increasingly replacing Russia as the second strongest country in the world—and the US is treating it so by accepting it as an interlocutor in international disputes. All this is feeding into Russia’s ego as a country. With constant Putin-baiting by the US, seeking close ties with China was the only option it had. Its best option to restrain the US is to collaborate with China,” argues former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal.

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Also, he asks, if it was okay for India to expand its relationship with the US in a big way, why shouldn’t it allow Russia the same margin to manoeuvre? There is little percentage in India getting possessive about its relationship with Russia while not staying monogamous itself.

Strategy expert C. Raja Mohan says India had always been sentimental about its rel­­ationship with Moscow. Since Kashmir is at the heart of the recent controversy, it perhaps hurts Indians more. India had alw­ays taken Moscow to be a voice it could trust in its dispute over J&K with Pakistan—and Moscow always stood by India. “Kashmir has played a special role in the evolution of relations between the two countries. Soviet leaders Khrushchev and Bulganin had travelled to Srinagar during their visit to India in 1955, and laid the foundations for an extended partnership between the two countries. Moscow exercised its veto in the UN Security Council to block Anglo-American moves on Kashmir in the 1950s. Things have changed. We have to stop seeing them with rose-tints,” he says.

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Dr Srinath Raghavan, senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and specialist in strategic and war studies, however, says it’s a relationship that has always had ups and downs. “To say they have been friends forever is a gross simplification of a relationship that has never been so simple,” he says. In a sense, it has been unidimensional, never going much beyond the military domain. Economic relations never expanded. And now India looks to other countries for defence purchases and other needs. “If diversification is applicable to us, why not to them,” he asks.

Russia, like the undivi­ded USSR bef­ore it, is the main defence supplier for India—it meets 70 per cent of India’s needs (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Feb 2016) . However, lately, this has faced noticeable erosion, with India buying more from the US, Israel and France—and US sales almost touching Russia’s in terms of vaue.

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Former diplomat G. Parthasarthy reit­erates that India could not expect Russia not to diversify, even as a tactical hedge. “Just bec­ause they are selling weapons to China in a big way, that does not necessarily mean they trust the Chinese. They are still worried the Chinese may move into Siberia. The weapon transfers are calculated. Russia too has to protect its interests. It may be in the dumps just now but it is intrinsically a very strong country,” he says.

Sibal too puts his finger on the pragmatic aspect. “We do joint exercises with China, probably our biggest adversary. We have border issues with it. It opposed our entry into the NSG. It did not support India’s resolution on terrorism. Yet we hold joint exercises. That does not make China our best friend. So why can’t Russia hold exercises with Pakistan?” he asks.

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Admiral Vishnu Bhagwat, former chief of naval staff, has an interesting twist to offer, saying that India could ultimately gain from the exercises. “In the small Russian team that has gone to Pakistan, there are bound to be some intelligence officers, who will assess the strengths and weaknesses of the Pakistanis and indirectly help India,” he tells Outlook. He trusts the deep background of synergy between Russia and India enough to foresee a strong degree of durability.

Parthasarthy too believes the basic trust between India and Russia has not eroded and they will stand by each other when the time comes. “Russia recognises that if it comes to intervention in Ukraine or Cri­mea, we will be with them. On Syria, India is closer to the Russian position than to the US. The bond between the two countries still exists,” he says. Unnikrishnan concurs. “Regional geopolitics may have changed but India and Russia can still have one of the most enduring relationships for the next 20-25 years if India stops taking them for granted. It cannot be like what India had with the USSR but can still be special,” he says.

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Experts feel India should remain invested in the relationship with Moscow and go the extra mile to assuage its feelings of neglect. Says a former diplomat: “Our interests are served better in having a more robust partnership with Moscow. In fact, Moscow can play an important part in punctuating the grid for India-China relations too. From non-alignment, India should move to multiple alignments and partnerships. Also, anything is possible in diplomacy. Putin’s Russia and the US have a problem. Maybe if Donald Trump comes to power, we will see a different Russia-US relationship.”

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