National

Readying For A Divorce

The relationship between the UF and the post-Rao Congress is reaching the point of no return

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Readying For A Divorce
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UP to his nose in a legal mess, P.V. Narasimha Rao last week took time off his busy schedule to have a fling at another losing battle for the sake of a loyal Deve Gowda. In a brief speech before the 20-member Congress Working Committee (CWC) on November 4, he advised the apex body not to hit out at the United Front aggressively at this juncture. The feeble attempt only confirmed Rao’s increasingly peripheral status in policy-making in Sitaram Kesri’s Congress.

The CWC gave a clear indication that short of bringing down the Government immediately, the Congress will give no other concessions to it, in Parliament and outside. The promise of unconditional support to keep the BJP out of power, made five months ago, seems to be gradually transforming into a conditional one. "The CWC will continue to review the situation as and when it develops," it decided at the end of a six-and-half hour session. The implication: anti-BJPism is fine, but the Government’s performance will be under a microscope and Congress support will hinge on this periodic evaluation.

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The United Front’s refusal to back the Mayawati-led BSP-Congress coalition in UP did not provoke the CWC enough to withdraw support at the Centre, as the party’s state unit had demanded. "We did explore this option. We could have prevailed upon Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party. But the CPI(M) had much bigger reservations—on the grounds that the BSP was not a truly secular party since it was hobnobbing with the BJP," a CWC member told Outlook, admitting the BSP alone was to blame for this reputation.

Still, given its past record—the Congress took a week to withdraw the promised support to the Charan Singh government in 1979, four months to disrupt Chandra Shekhar’s regime in 1991, and voted with the BJP to topple the V.P. Singh ministry in late 1990—it has shown greater tolerance this time. The party now has its own compulsions, and the situation is different from the past.

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In 1979, the Congress wanted a mid-term poll and it was necessary to bring down the government. In 1990, the party’s antipathy towards V.P. Singh overrode its secular commitments, and the lame duck Shekhar regime was only Rajiv Gandhi’s way of marking time. Now, the UF Government is surviving solely because the Congress has neither the majority to form its own government nor the will to face a mid-term poll. Given the confusion and low morale among the rank and file after the Lok Sabha poll debacle, the Congress would not like to risk early elections. It would rather explore the possibilities of inching up to a majority position in the current House. This was why UP party chief Jitendra Prasada’s demand for prompt withdrawal of support could not be given serious thought.

 "Even now, we are the party which can make or unmake a prime minister. If we have extended our support to Deve Gowda, it’s with the hope that he would pursue our policies, mainly on foreign and economic affairs. And, of course, the Government’s secular credentials should not come under a cloud," says Iqbal Singh, Rajya Sabha MP. "As the most important nationalist party, it can’t be expected of us to sit quiet if the UF acts contrary to our expectation."

With 143 members, the Congress can easily bring down the UF Government. But it would still need the support of 127 more members before it can stake claim to form the government, and that would deter it from making a definitive assault on the five-month-old Government. Congress president Sitaram Kesri took the first, small step in this direction on November 5 when he readmitted Madhavrao Scindia back in the party with much fanfare. The re-entry of the ND Tiwari-led Congress(T) is very much on the cards. And Kesri met G.K.Moopanar of the Tamil Maanila Congress several times last week in a bid to rope his party which has 20 members in the Lok Sabha.

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 Because of his own compulsions, Kesri would also need to wait till he fully marginalises Rao and establishes his leadership. Rao loyalists, though rapidly going downhill numberwise in the party, don’t take very kindly to Scindia’s re-entry. "Why should those who left the party abusing its policies and leadership be taken back?" asks S.S. Ahluwalia, Rajya Sabha member. Tariq Anwar, Kesri’s political secretary, invokes a long-held demand within the party to counter this. "The call for entry of old Congressmen was made in July when Rao was still the party chief. Scindia’s entry came after the CWC authorised Kesri to implement that decision," he says.

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As the Congress fortifies its ranks numerically, though far below the majority mark, it’s also preparing for an assault in Parliament. Overruling Rao in the CWC, Kesri asked Manmohan Singh to plan an offensive on the Government during the winter session beginning November 20. Singh, a CWC member and chairman of the new committee to monitor Government performance, will focus on economic issues.

The party will also rake up foreign policy failures and the UF Government’s "poor image" abroad. The issues involved: India’s defeat in the UN Security Council polls; the "pathetic delay" in responding to the Afghan crisis; and the "casual response" to the attack on Indians by Pakistani ISI agents. Ironically, the stands are identical to the one publicly aired by the Front partners—the CPI and the CPI(M).

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More alarmingly, the United Front faces a crippling depletion in its reservoirs of strength. Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav, enfeebled by the fodder scam, has already started exploring the formation of a regional party with Congress backing. With the support of at least 22 Janata Dal MPs assured, Yadav has even been toying with the idea of extending his support to the Congress should it seek to replace Deve Gowda at any point of time.

AFTER ‘operation Scindia’ came to fruition, Kesri has also had a few rounds of talks with Congress(T) leaders. N.D. Tiwari, president of the four-member splinter group, has responded positively to the unity move initiated by Kesri. "Scindia’s inclusion is a positive move. We welcome it," he said. More crucial will be the result of Kesri’s bid to effect an alliance, or even a merger, with the TMC. Moopanar. The 17 members of its ally, the DMK, too are being eyed with interest. 

"The talks with Moopanar are moving in a positive direction. Their demand for reasonable autonomy to states is something the Congress has always stood for," a senior AICC functionary said, claiming that the situation will be clear by November-end. The Telugu Desam Party opens up another window of possibility—its 20-strong contingent in the Lok Sabha is not too comfortable with Gowda’s leadership and has stayed calm only at the behest of the CPI(M). The TDP has taken cog-nisance of the developments in the Congress—its central executive meeting on November 9 discussed the changing political situation. The TMC executive is also slated to meet on November 19, the birth anniverasry of Indira Gandhi. Says the AICC functionary: "If all our efforts materialise, our strength in Parliament will swell to around 230. Whether we continue our support to the UF will depend on how Gowda shapes up." 

Deve Gowda seemed cool and pragmatic in his response, though it betrayed his helplessness. "Scindia had quit the Congress for his own reasons and has now gone back. There can be no grievance on that count," he said. Gowda may be less stoic if the Congress plan clicks. In its entirety, that would mean 37 TMC-DMK members, 20 from the TDP, four from the Congress(T) and 22 from Laloo, besides S. Bangarappa’s Karnataka Congress. Kesri also intends to rope in Karnataka leader R.K. Hegde—if only for his limited utility in needling Gowda personally.

However, the Congress finds the Left attitude towards it a major blighter to its dream. Kesri, after his several exploratory meetings with Surjeet, knows the CPI(M) won’t budge from its decision not to support a Congress government at any cost. So, his primary focus now should be on reaching out to non-communist, non-BJP parties. That includes the 17-member Samajwadi Party, whose leader Mulayam Singh Yadav has a personal rapport with Kesri.

Alongside political reinforcements, Kesri will need time to take over as leader of the parliamentary party. The post will soon fall vacant, with Rao’s exit a near-certainty in the light of the criminal cases he faces. Alternately, he may choose to become the CPP chairman, like Indira Gandhi did as a Rajya Sabha MP in 1966 when she first became the prime minister.

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The winter session of Parliament will witness the preparatory assaults. The decisive blows on the UF Government may take another couple of months. Then, Gowda will be left with limited, extreme, options: step down, or dissolve Parliament and order fresh polls so as to upset the Congress game-plan. The relationship between the Gowda-led UF and the post-Rao Congress is nearing the point of no return. It’s not just that the honeymoon is over, the divorce papers are being readied. As of now, the Congress is only displaying tactical patience.

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