But elections in J&K are not easy to predict and detecting trends is tricky. The outcome of the polls in the Valley holds the key to power. Reason: In an 87-member house, Jammu with 30.5 lakh voters has only 37 seats while the Valley with a 20.8 lakh voting population has 46 constituencies. The remaining four are in the Ladakh region. The BJP is keen on playing up the Jammu issue because the region has never thrown up a chief minister and is always playing "second fiddle" to Kashmir's politicians/parties angle.