Rajasthan
Votingintention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections
Party |
Actual vote in1998 (%)
Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)
Swing
(%)
Actual number ofseats in 1998
Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP
33.9
36.4
+2.5
33
67
INC
45.2
40.7
--4.5
153
113
Others
20.9
22.9
+2.0
14
20
Total
100
100
0
200
200
1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party
Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons. The reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP are summarized inthe table below :
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|
Congress -I
BJP
Base : Would Vote for.....
2982
2667
% saying:
%
%
Itcan ensure justice for poor
27
17
Preferthis party from the beginning
21
18
Itcan improve villages
16
13
Becauseof the leader of the party
13
17
Providefood during drought
11
1
Itwill solve state's problems
10
9
Doesdevelopment work
10
10
27% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for the Congress say so because they feel that it is the party that ensures justice forthe poor and another 16% said it can improve villages.
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17% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for BJP would do so because of the leader of the party.
2.Important issues facing the State today
Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were :
AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base : All respondents
7328
1891
5437
% saying..
%
%
%
Providingemployment opportunities
47
55
45
Water problem
44
33
48
Electricity / Powersituation
29
21
32
Improving roads inthe state
13
13
13
Poverty
12
10
13
Overall developmentof the State
10
14
8
Ascan be seen unemployment, water availability and electricity/power situation are the main concerns of thepeople of Rajasthan.
3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections
The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.
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All Sample
Urban
Rural
Base : All Sample
7328
1891
5437
% saying:
%
%
%
Yes
86
87
86
No
14
13
14
86%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.
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4. Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now
|
Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
Base : Claim to have voted
Congress (I)
BJP
in 1998 for ..
3025
2183
Party intend to vote now
% saying:
%
%
Congress - I
81.2
5.9
BJP
11.2
88.3
Others / INDP
2.9
2.0
Don’t know / Can’t say
4.6
3.6
11.2% of the respondents in thesample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said thatthey will vote for BJP this time. Where as only 5.9% of thosesaid they had voted for BJP now intent to vote for Congress (I).
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5.Reasons for Shifting away from Congress (I)
Those said that they had voted forINC in 1998 but now intend to vote for BJP were asked the reasons for the change in their voting intentions.
The main reasons as mentioned bythe respondents were:
Base : those who claimed tohave voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote forBJP |
338
% saying…
%
It can maintain lawand order (BJP)
30
Keep promises (BJP)
10
It can bring downcorruption / reduce corruption (BJP)
9
It will solvestate's problems (BJP)
9
Because of theleader of the party (BJP)
8
As can be seen from the abovetable, it is mainly that BJP is seen as a party that can maintainlaw and order and party that keeps its promises that hasattracted people to BJP away from the Congress.
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6. Performance of Ashok Gehlot as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan
Respondents were next asked torate the performance of Ashok Gehlot of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during his 5 year tenure inRajasthan. Responses are as mentioned below:
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AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base : Allrespondents
7328
1891
5437
% saying..
%
%
%
VeryGood
14
15
14
Good
29
30
28
Average
27
28
27
Poor
20
18
21
VeryPoor
6
4
7
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say
4
5
3
Meanscore (out of 5)
3.24
3.33
3.22
43% of the respondents have ratedthe performance of Sh. Gehlot as the CM of Rajasthan as good to very good compared to 26% who rated it as‘poor/very poor’. The mean score of 3.24 out of 5.00 indicates an above average rating of the govt.
7.Main achievements of Ashok Gehlot
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base: All thosewho rated performance of CM as very good or good |
3111
%saying:
%
Provideadequate drought relief
69
Improvedroads in the state
27
Hasdone a lot for overall development of the State
24
Hassolved the water problem
21
ProvidedEmployment opportunities
16
Hasreduce poverty levels in the State
15
Providedbetter education
14
Hasimproved electricity / power situation in the State
12
The main reason (69%) for rating Sh. Gehlot as good or verygood is that he had provided adequate drought relief to the people in the state.
8. Main failures of Ashok Gehlot
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as poor or very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor | 1960 |
% saying:
%
Has not providedemployment opportunities
36
Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State
32
Has not improvedelectricity / Power situation in the state
27
Has not solved thewater problem
25
Did not providedadequate drought relief
17
Has not done enoughto reduce poverty levels in the State
16
Corruption hasgrown.
16
Has not improvedroads in the state
15
36% of the respondents feel thatSh. Gehlot has not done enough to provide employment opportunities in the state and another 32% said he hadnot done enough for the overall development in the state.
9. Opinion on arrest of Praveen Togadia
Therespondents were asked for their opinion about the Sh. Gehlot’s action of getting Praveen Togadia arrestedfor distributing trishuls. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents |
7328
%saying:
%
AshokGehlot was right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls
33
AshokGehlot was not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls
33
Don’tknow / Can’t say
34
Opinionwas divided on whether Sh. Gehlot was right or not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributingtrishuls.
10. Announcement of reservation for economically backward upper castes
The respondents were askedtheir opinion about the announcement of Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlotregarding 14% reservation for economically backward Brahmins and Rajputs in Government jobs.. The viewsof the respondents are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents |
7328
%saying:
%
Itis a serious effort towards reducing inequality in reservation of certain sections of society
29
Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state
45
Others
25
Don’tknow / Can’t say
1
45%of the respondents feel that the announcement is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections inthe state whereas, 29% felt it was a serious effort in reducing inequality among certain sections.
11.Opinion on the Parivartan Yatra by Vasundhara Raje
Therespondents were asked their opinion about the recent Parivartan Yatra undertaken by Vasundhara Raje. Theviews of the respondents are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents |
7328
%saying:
%
Itis a serious effort by Vasundhara Raje to understand the issues concerning the people of Rajasthan
30
Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state
47
Don’tknow / Can’t say
23
47% of the respondents feel thatthe Parivartan Yatra by Ms. Raje is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state andanother 23% did not comment.
12.Most capable of being the next CM of Rajasthan
The respondents were askedwho as per their opinion is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Rajasthan. The views of therespondents are mentioned below:
Base: AllRespondents |
7328
% saying:
%
Ashok Gehlot
43
VasundharaRaje
32
Girija Vyas
2
Gulab Chand Kataria
2
Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi
1
Bhanwar Lal Sharma
1
Base: Thosepreferring Ashok Gehlot as next CM |
3163
% saying:
%
Done developmentwork / good work
28
Provided adequaterelief during draught
25
Help the poorpeople
24
He is honest /clean image
16
Good performance oftrack record
15
He is a Popularleader
11
28% of those whohad mentioned Ashok Gehlot as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because of thegood development work done by him in the state followed closely by 25% who said that he had provided adequatedrought relief and 24% who said he had helped the poor.
13b. Reasons forpreferring Vasundhara Raje as CM
Respondents who hadindicated Vasundhara Raje as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Rajasthan were next asked togive their reasons for preferring her. They were free to give one or more reasons.
Base: Thosepreferring Vasundhara Raje as next CM |
2374
% saying:
%
Done developmentwork / good work
20
She is honest /clean image
16
Help the poorpeople
14
She is a Popularleader
13
She is a candidatefrom BJP
12
Good performance oftrack record
10
36% of those whohad mentioned Vasundhara Raje as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because ofher honest/clean image and the good development work done by her in the state.
List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Rajasthan
AC |
NO.
ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY
PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY
1
BHADRA
GANGANAGAR(SC)
7
KESRISINGHPUR(SC)
GANGANAGAR(SC)
10
BIKANER
16
DUNGARGARH
CHURU
17
SUJANGARH(SC)
CHURU
27
NAWALGARH
JHUNJHUNU
34
DANTA– RAMGARH
SIKAR
39
AMBER
DAUSA
42
JOHRIBAZAR
JAIPUR
48
PHAGI(SC)
JAIPUR
51
BANDIKUI
DAUSA
58
BEHROR
ALWAR
63
ALWAR
ALWAR
67
KATHUMAR(SC)
BHARATPUR
72
BHARATPUR
BHARATPUR
79
BARI
BAYANA(SC)
85
GANGAPUR
SAWAIMADHOPUR(ST)
93
MALPURA
TONK(SC)
94
KISHANGARH
AJMER
100
MASUDA
AJMER
103
HINDOLI
KOTA
105
PATAN(SC)
KOTA
118
JHALRAPATAN
JHALAWAR
120
DAG(SC)
JHALAWAR
122
GANGRAR(SC)
CHITTORGARH
126
BADISADRI
CHITTORGARH
128
KUSHALGARH(ST)
BANSWARA(ST)
134
CHORASI(ST)
BANSWARA(ST)
137
LASADIA(ST)
SALUMBER(ST)
141
NATHDWARA
UDAIPUR
148
GONGUNDA(ST)
SALUMBER(ST)
151
MANDAL
BHILWARA
157
BANERA
BHILWARA
165
SUMERPUR
PALI
166
BALI
PALI
171
RANIWARA
JALORE(SC)
173
JALORE(SC)
JALORE(SC)
178
GUDAMALANI
BARMER
180
SHEO
BARMER
186
LUNI
JODHPUR
192
JAYAL(SC)
BIKANER
200
MUNDWA
NAGAUR