National

On Parallel Bars

Amma or the Kalaignar? The election is too close to call in TN.

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On Parallel Bars
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This is one election where no one is willing to bet on the results. Since former chief minister mgr’s death in 1987, it’s been the DMK or AIADMK ruling in turns every five years. But this time around, things have shaken up a bit, perhaps why both Tamil Nadu CM M. Karunanidhi and AIADMK chief J. Jayalalitha have both opted for safe seats—the DMK chief from Thiruvarur, where he grew up, and Amma from Srirangam, a safe seat with a 50,000 Brahmin votebank which is hers for the asking.

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In fact, for the first time in Tamil Nadu, the chance of a coalition government is almost certain. The DMK alliance break-up makes it mandatory: on the backfoot over the 2G scam, the Dravidian party kept only 119 seats, conceding 63 to the Congress, 31 to the PMK and the remaining to five others for the 234-member legislative assembly. Even in Chennai, said to be a DMK bastion, many party veterans have fled to rural constituencies. Potential CM M.K. Stalin has gone all the way to Kolathur, regarded as a rural constituency within the metro limits.

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On the other side, the AIADMK is contesting 160 seats (84 direct fights with the DMK) with crucial help from actor Vijaykanth’s Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (41 seats), the Left and seven other allies. Her alliance is harping on the spectrum scam, though it seems to be having resonance largely with the youth and urban voters. What’s noticeable this time is that Jayalalitha has shed her imperious ways, even negotiating peace with allies (after first “unilaterally” announcing her list). She even reached out to a sulking Vaiko of the MDMK after he decided to boycott the polls, saying she was “saddened” by his decision but “as a beloved sister my love and respect for you continues”.

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A perceptible change in this election is that money isn’t flowing quite so freely with police/CISF accompanying election officials and flagging down cars for searches on highways and village roads. “With elections suddenly being announced earlier than expected, no party could make arrangements beforehand,” says a Trichy businessman. CISF officer Prakash Chand, posted on the Salem-Nammakal highway, confirms this: “Even in Uttar Pradesh so much gold and money was not seized.” At last count, nearly Rs 20 crore in cash and jewellery has been seized.

“Ammaku chance iraku (Amma has a chance).” “2G has caused an image crisis for the DMK, but Kalaignar has brought development too. Which politician isn’t corrupt?” “We don’t want freebies. 2G spectrum scam? What’s that?” These are snatches of conversation heard on the way to Thanjavur, Trichy, Salem and Vellore. Ultimately it’s caste, arithmetic and local factors that’ll count. The X-factor is the fence-sitters, who may be swayed by freebies or the AIADMK’s drumming up of the 2G scam. The Karunanidhi clan’s omnipresence in every facet of life here does not appear to be a tipping factor. “I should believe my own blood after all,” says P.K. Thiagarajan, chairman, board of trustees, Srirangam temple, explaining the lack of reaction in rural TN to the 2G scam.

P. Ravi and his wife Nirmala sell coconuts at Poondi, on the state highway outside Thanjavur, and like a majority of villagers have got a colour TV but no gas, land or pucca house as promised by the CM. “What has Kalaignar done for the poor?” he asks, saying if he’d got an educational loan, then his daughter, now in the tenth standard, could study further and perhaps lift the family out of poverty. G. Swaminathan, a final year engineering student, at a Thiruvarur college, agrees: “We want loans, not subsidies.”

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But freebies it is from the DMK. Karunanidhi, launching the party campaign from Thiruvarur last week, promised laptops for all students. Stalin, referring to the party manifesto promising mixies, added 35 kg of free rice per month per family to the list. The promises, though, are taken with a pinch of salt, at least by some sections. “Who knows, more freebies like fridge, washing machine may come our way,” was one comment. Other voices spoke of how children had become TV junkies, thanks to the DMK. R. Krishnamurthy, who works in a Salem company has this take: “Thanks to Karunanidhi’s free TV, we all know about the spectrum scam.”

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The price rise is the main issue for voters. P. Shanti, who makes brooms at a godown in Narayanapettai near Omalur in Salem district, says her husband is a lorry driver and her 19-year-old daughter works in a company. “But our combined salaries are still not enough to run the house.” Besides, all the running around, including the bribes paid for a ration card that has still not come, has made her livid. Her vote is for Jayalalitha “because she is a lady and will understand that you can’t run a home with rising prices”. Many say even if the current government gives rice for Re 1, salt now costs Rs 15! Shanti’s sister Mekhala adds, “Jayalalitha is bold and gives priority to law and order. That’s what I want.”

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Outside Salem, sand-quarrying has got the locals upset. AIADMK councillor  Suryakala, waiting for a bus besides the newly-laid road at Melkalathur, says, “If you had come last week, you would not have been able to stand here with all the dust kicked up by the trucks. Only 25 per cent of them have permits.”

In neighbouring Pondicherry, 2G and price rise are the main issues. The difference is that the Congress, which rules here, has kept 19 seats and has given 10 to the DMK and one to the PMK in the 30-member assembly. The picture is still not clear on the AIADMK front because negotiations are still on with the new player,  the All-India NR Congress, recently formed by ex-CM N. Rangaswamy after he broke from the Congress. If the two get together, they could do some serious damage to the DMK-Congress combine.

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