Madhya Pradesh
Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections
Party |
Actual vote in1998 (%)
Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)
Swing
(%)
Actual number ofseats in 1998
Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP
38.8
43.1
+4.3
83
147
INC
41.2
34.2
--7.0
124
58
Others
19.9
22.6
+2.7
23
25
Total
100
100
0
230
230
1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party
Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons.
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Main reasons given for votingfor Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondents are summarized in the table below:
Congress- I
BJP
Base : Would Vote for.....
2837
3575
% saying
%
%
Votingfrom beginning
19
10
Canresolve the issue of power crisis
14
20
Willmake roads
12
14
Canresolve issue of water scarcity
9
10
Donegood work
9
13
Willsolve problem of poverty
8
7
Willsolve state problem
8
10
Canmaintain laws & order
7
7
Willprovide more employment
7
11
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2. Important issues facing the State today
Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were:
All Sample
Urban
Rural
Base : All respondents
8295
3832
4462
% saying..
%
%
%
Electricity/PowerSituation
77
76
78
Water Problem
55
52
57
Poor Condition ofroads in the State
45
45
46
Providingemployment Opportunities
39
44
36
Poverty
15
14
16
Improvement ofvillages
10
7
12
Providing bettereducation
10
9
11
3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabhaelections
The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.
All Sample
Urban
Rural
Base : All Sample
8295
3817
4478
% who said they voted for ;
%
%
%
Yes
87
86
89
No
13
14
11
4. Party voted for in the 1998 VidhanSabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now
Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
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Base : Claim to have voted
Congress (I)
BJP
in 1998 for ..
2962
2883
Party intend to vote now
% saying:
%
%
Congress
79.6
4.5
BJP
11.5
89.7
Others
2.1
1.3
Don't know/Can'tsay
5.7
3.1
5. Reasonsfor Shifting away from Congress (I)
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AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base :those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I) last time butintend to vote for the BJP now
340
162
178
%saying
%
%
%
Not satisfied withtheir work
15
17
14
Power problem / Nopower supply
10
10
11
No development
9
7
10
Try different party
9
9
9
No employment
7
10
4
Most of the people are shiftingaway from Congress, as they seem to be dissatisfied with the work done by the Party especially in the field ofpower/electricity
Ofthe 8295 people interviewed 85% were aware that . Digvijay Singh is the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.
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Therespondents were next asked to rate the performance of . Digvijay Singh of Congress (I) as the ChiefMinister during his 10 year tenure in Madhya Pradesh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to“Very Poor”. The responseswere:
AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base : Allrespondents
8295
3817
4478
% rating him
%
%
%
VeryGood
6
5
7
Good
20
18
21
Average
18
18
18
Poor
30
31
29
VeryPoor
20
20
19
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say
6
8
5
MeanScore (Out of 5.0)
2.59
2.52
2.65
7.Main failures of Digvijay Singh
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past ten years as poor to very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
AllSample |
Urban
Rural
Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor
4115
1959
2157
% saying
%
%
%
Has not improvedelectricity/power situation in the State
45
47
44
Has not improvedroads in the State
19
21
18
Has not solved thewater Problem
19
18
20
Has not providedemployment opportunities
18
21
15
Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State
16
14
18
8.Opinions about the issue of opening the Bhojshala
Thoseinterviewed were next asked about the ‘Bhojshala’ issue. Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh . DigvijaySingh of Congress opened the Bhojshala for worship by both the Hindus and the Muslims.
Respondentswere asked to express their views about this action taken by the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister. Incase therespondent were not aware of this issue; the responses were coded under ‘Don’t Know/ Can’t say’.
Respondentswere asked whether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:
AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base: No. interviewed
8295
3832
4462
%saying
%
%
%
Digvijay Singh/ Congress was rightin opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims
58
60
56
Digvijay Singh/ Congress was notright in opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims
18
16
20
Others
2
3
1
Don’t know / Can’t say
22
21
23
A majority of 59% of therespondents favoured Digvijay Singh’s step of opening the Bhojshala for worship by both Hindus andMuslims.
9.Opinions about . Digvijay Singh’s petition to the Prime Minister to banCow Slaughter
ChiefMinister of Madhya Pradesh . Digvijay Singh of Congress had sent a petition to the Prime Minister seekinga central legislation to ban cow slaughter.
Respondents were asked toexpress their views about this act of the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister andwhether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:
AllSample
Urban
Rural
Base: All respondents
8295
3832
4462
% saying:
%
%
%
Digvijay Singh is correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister
81
80
82
Digvijay Singh is not correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister
5
5
6
This issue is irrelevant
4
4
4
Others
0
1
0
Don’t know / Can’t say
9
10
9
10. Party that can enforce the ban on ‘Cow Slaughter’ inMadhya Pradesh
Respondentswere then informed that the bill to ban cow slaughter has been approved by the Union cabinet, but enforcing itin individual States is up to the State governments. They were asked to give their opinion, as to which of thetwo parties- Congress (I) or BJP will enforce the ban in the State.
AllSample |
Urban
Rural
Base:All Respondents
8295
3832
4462
%saying
%
%
%
BJP
45
46
44
Congress (I)
30
26
33
Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP)
6
6
6
Others
1
1
1
Don’t know / Can’t say
17
20
14
Overall,45% of the respondents felt that BJP was the party that will enforce the ban on cow slaughter in the State, ascompared to 30% who think Congress (I) will enforce the ban in the State.
11.Opinion about Ms. Uma Bharti contesting the elections after being charge sheeted in the Babri MasjidDemolition case
AllSample |
Urban
Rural
Base:All Respondents
8295
3832
4462
%saying
%
%
%
Yes, UmaBharati should contest the forth coming elections
66
66
66
No, Uma Bharatishould not contest the forth coming elections
29
29
30
Don’t know / Can’t say
4
5
4
12. Most capable of being the next CM of Madhya Pradesh
The respondents were next askedwho, out of a list of names on a card was the most suitable person to become the Chief Minister of MadhyaPradesh. The responses received were:
Allsample
Urban
Rural
Base : All sample
8295
3832
4462
% saying
%
%
%
UmaBharti
38
38
38
Digvijay Singh
28
25
30
Mayawati
5
5
6
Arjun Singh
3
3
3
Sundar LalPatwa
3
3
3
Kamal Nath
3
4
1
Don’t know / Can’t say
15
17
14
List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Madhya Pradesh
ACNO. |
ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY
PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY
SABALGARH
7
DIMNI (SC)
MORENA
13
RON
20
DABRA
GWALIOR
22
SEONDHA (SC)
BHIND
25
POHRI
GUNA
34
MUNGAOLI
GUNA
36
KHURAI (SC)
SAGAR
39
SAGAR
SAGAR
45
KHARGAPUR (SC)
KHAJURAHO
47
MALEHRA
DAMOH
54
PATHARIA (SC)
DAMOH
59
MAIHAR
SATNA
67
GURH
REWA
71
DEOTALAB (SC)
REWA
76
DHAUHANI (ST)
SIDHI
83
KOTMA (ST)
SHAHDOL
177
BAIHAR (ST)
BALAGHAT
180
WARASEONI
BALAGHAT
188
BAJAG (ST)
MANDLA
196
JABALPUR CENTRAL
JABALPUR
199
MAJHOLI
SEONI
204
VIJAIRAGHOGARH
SATNA
206
BOHANI
HOSHANGABAD
211
KEOLARI
SEONI
215
CHHINDWARA
CHHINDWARA
224
ITARSI
HOSHANGABAD
229
MASOD
BETUL
237
SEHORE
BHOPAL
245
BHOJPUR
VIDHISHA
247
BASODA
VIDHISHA
251
BIAORA
RAJGARH
254
RAJGARH
RAJGARH
258
SHAJAPUR
SHAJAPUR
262
MAHIDPUR
UJJAIN
267
UJJAIN SOUTH
UJJAIN
271
INDORE-II
INDORE
277
SONKATCH (SC)
SHAHJAPUR
282
NIMARKHEDI
KHANDWA
284
KHANDWA
KHANDWA
292
KHARGONE
KHARGONE
297
BARWANI (ST)
DHAR
300
DHAR
DHAR
310
RATLAM RURAL
JHABUA
316
SUWASARA (SC)
MANDSAUR
318
MANDSAUR
MANDSAUR