National

Hoping For A Witch-Hunt

Here are a few would-be scenarios for the BJP: the picture looks hazy

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Hoping For A Witch-Hunt
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Ever since its inception in 1980, the BJP has been a party that acts, forcing others to react. Even when it became the ruling party in 1998, sections of the BJP and larger Sangh parivar never got out of agitational mode. But for the first time in its history, the BJP finds itself in a position where it can only react to the actions of the new rulers of New Delhi. Here's the political script that the BJP expects will be played out over the next few months:

The first strike will be made in Gujarat. A new anti-BJP governor will be installed. Congress leader Shankarsinh Vaghela will use his old connections in the BJP and RSS to stoke trouble for Narendra Modi, already reeling under an electoral shock and trouble within his own party. The judicial system will also be used to further embarrass Modi as cases like the Best Bakery and the Bilkis rape case will run their course. BJP leaders admit Modi has become a liability and may have to be sacrificed. But the BJP will never admit to sacrificing him for his anti-minorities image. "He will go because of his autocratic style and because he appears to be antagonising people in the BJP, RSS and VHP," says a party general secretary.

The BJP expects the Congress to be in hot pursuit of the Muslim vote—particularly in UP. Hence the top leadership of the BJP is in no doubt that it is just a matter of time before the criminal charges in the Ayodhya case involving Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Uma Bharati are revived. Some BJP leaders are hoping that the Congress goes on a witch-hunt against all the hardline leaders. "That way we will again be able to talk of Muslim appeasement and will get an issue that might generate some sympathy for us," says a BJP strategist. With Syed Shahabuddin now in the Congress, a few in the BJP are, ironically, praying that he revives the suggestion of rebuilding the Babri mosque. If that happens, the Ram temple issue will certainly get a fresh lease of life.

The BJP expects a process of political churning to crystallise around the time of the Maharashtra assembly elections later this year. With Mayawati's bsp having emerged with a respectable chunk of the voteshare in the state, it is certain that the Congress-NCP government will seek an alliance with her in order to buck the growing anti-incumbency in Maharashtra. At this point, Mayawati can be expected to mount pressure on the Congress to withdraw support and try to bring down the Mulayam Singh government in Uttar Pradesh. Says BJP's Prakash Javadekar: "The politics of Maharashtra can no longer be separated from the politics of Uttar Pradesh."

There's a Bihar angle as well. The BJP is aware that the Nitish Kumar-led faction of its NDA ally, the JD(U), is working towards a realignment in the state where elections are due early next year. In order to create a strong anti-Laloo Yadav front, many JD(U) leaders, barring George Fernandes, are ready to ditch the BJP and seek an alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan and the state Congress. The local Congress leaders can't see eye to eye with Laloo.. Though it is unlikely that the national leadership of the Congress will jettison Laloo, the BJP is keeping its fingers crossed.

Says a BJP strategist: "If the Congress wants to revive itself in the Hindi belt, it has to first take on Mulayam and then Laloo." The BJP is in such a sorry position today that it's hoping that a punch-up with the two Yadavs will begin the process of destabilising the new government. On its part, the BJP is still looking for fresh ideas.

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