Making A Difference

Hitching Wagons

Bill’s due. South Asia, the missing link in Clinton’s peacemaking repertoire, beckons.

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Hitching Wagons
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It’s the seal of approval. The mark of trust. The crowning of India’s place in the world signalling a change of emphasis in US foreign policy in the region. The five-day visit by the President of the United States, Bill Clinton, to India, with one day in Bangladesh and only a few hours in Pakistan, gives an overwhelming mandate to a country of over one billion people. But it’s also about the US waking up to the changed post-Cold War realities as also Clinton’s urge to do something before he steps down.

The US administration and policymakers are keen that the visit should end old Cold War suspicions. A distrust that arose out of India’s close relationship with the ussr and dedication to non-alignment, through which it exercised moral superiority to gain world status. But in the past 10 years, the currency of higher morals has given way to a new pragmatic currency - money. Economically, the Americans are now determined to get their share of the Indian market in a steadily liberalising economy. If India needs power, then GE should provide it. If India needs aeroplanes, then the choice should be Boeing. Politically too, the US appears to be reacting positively to the new "openness" in India’s dealings with other countries.

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However, all this is not a complete endorsement of the domestic agenda of the ruling bjp. Many people in Washington harbour reservations about the fundamentalist nationalism that the party represents, but what is crucial is that the US has acknowledged that Indian democracy is strong enough to keep its own house in order and that the partnership of the two nations transcends significant differences in policy whether it comes to matters of human rights, or the question of Pakistan.

Says Stephen Cohen, senior fellow, foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC: "The question is not whether Clinton would be right to go to Pakistan, but why he took so long in coming to the region as a whole." Cohen has been very vocal in urging Clinton to come to South Asia and fill in the long left blanks.

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There is little doubt that the visit has been a long time coming - 10 years in fact, the whole Clinton era. In recent times, this has been for reasons like the nuclear tests, the Kargil conflict and the coup in Pakistan. There are older reasons, spoken of under the breath. For instance, until 1996, the ruling Congress was still plagued by Cold War doubts. It was precisely this suspicion that brought to naught the last US presidential visit to India, that of Jimmy Carter, in 1978. For in 1979, the ussr invaded Afghanistan and intensified the rift - and the US was on Pakistan’s side.

But India has come perilously close to turning its well-feathered cap of the five-day visit into something less than a celebration. By voicing its reservations, however subdued, at the US president’s intention to visit Pakistan as well, New Delhi has been criticised for showing immaturity of spirit and contradicting its own oft-bleated demand of not twinning the two hostile neighbours. And now that it has lost the diplomatic effort in preventing the trip, India has given Pakistan, (which is more snubbed than snubbing), a reason to crow.

"We tend in our comments to overdo things - to be either overly dismissive or be too smug. There is no balance and no maturity," says Karan Singh, former ambassador to the US. "He (Clinton) can go wherever he likes. I don’t think it was a good idea for us to make statements to the contrary. It might even be a good thing when he does go to Pakistan - it might act as a restraining influence on General Pervez Musharraf. " Singh sees the visit by the American president as an opportunity for India to eschew "foreign hand" murmurings and other anachronisms which have little place in the New World Order.

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And while there may be no road to Damascus conversion of South Block mandarins’ defensive, old-fashioned mindset, the visit may mark the beginnings of change. George Perkovich, director of the Secure World Program of the W. Alton Jones Foundation, and author of India’s Nuclear Bomb, The Impact on Global Proliferation, believes that while the US has got over its Cold War hangup, the Indian establishment has not. "What is paradoxical is that although India did the nuclear tests to show how powerful they are, they still suffer from a lack of self-regard and confidence. But the reality is that the visit can only be a validation that India is a major power. Period."

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One view from Washington suggests that the US might be trying to gain friends in India to combat the growing strength of China which is trying to restore the status that existed until the Opium Wars of 1842. In other words, they believe that China is once again trying to flex its muscles in all of Asia, causing friction with its neighbours. According to Thomas W. Robinson, president of the American Asian Research Enterprises, the US sees China as the centre of its Asian policy, post-Cold War. Driven by tensions between Taiwan and Beijing, the US might try to improve relations with Japan, India, the asean members and other Asian countries. He believes India’s nuclearisation and its growing economic importance will only result in a deterioration of Sino-Indian relations - something that the US is bound to try and take advantage of.

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Others dismiss this view as an exaggeration. Says Perkovich: "Clearly there were some people in the Reagan administration and after who subscribe to that view, but it is far from a prevailing view." He is not convinced that China is a military threat to the US. "It is not clear at all, that even if the United States wanted to contain China, how India could fit into the equation - China would not use its weapons against India and nor would India use its weapons on behalf of the US," he asserts. But from a political viewpoint, clarifies Perkovich, a good bilateral relationship between India and the US vis-a-vis China makes sense - if in international fora like the UN and wto India takes a position that is in harmony with the US position on matters that concern China.

Influential Indian-American Washingtonians are another reason the trip makes sense. Capitol Hill is awash with young ethnic Indian congressional staffers. They are lawyers and lobbyists and are revolutionising politics in Congress. "The old Indian lobby consisted of middle- to left-leaning liberals who emphasised on the non-aligned movement. But that’s all changed." says Teresita C. Schaffer, director of the South Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The newthink Indian lobby is more pragmatic, is frankly interested in business and contributes financially to political campaigns. These are second generation Indians who now link themselves with other strong lobbyists like the Irish and the Greek.

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It has been suggested that President Clinton sees the trip to the region as a swan-song to his love affair with problem-solving overseas. "All presidents want to be perceived as peacemakers. And he thinks that he’s good at it. The US is interested in status quo power particularly in regions like this. That stands to reason," says James F. Hoge, editor of the journal, Foreign Affairs. The view from analysts in the US is that Northern Ireland was Clinton’s one major foreign-policy success story.

Clinton appointed George Mitchell, considered even by Clinton-haters to be a visionary. He brokered the Good Friday Agreement which led to the setting up of a directly elected assembly. The fact that the process is at risk today is seen more as Tony Blair’s fault rather than that of the Americans. The US president has been given less credit for his peacemaking efforts in West Asia. He sent Warren Christopher to the region 22 times but to no avail.

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So, decreasingly relevant at home, Clinton has now cast his eyes on South Asia. It’s a given that he will encourage both India and Pakistan to settle differences. Says Schaffer: "I would anticipate that his private discussions will include problems of governance in Kashmir where the people have not been in charge of their own destinies for a long time." Clinton has already said that he will only mediate on the issue if both India and Pakistan ask him to.

But there is some scepticism. Says E. Sridharan, academic director, University of Pennsylvania Institute for the Advanced Studies of India: "I don’t understand what Clinton’s payoff is." Given that the US president, because of his India visit, can be seen to be implicitly accepting it as a nuclear weapons state, he asks: "Is it possible that there may be a quiet deal in the making - on nukes or Kashmir?" Perhaps Clinton wants to cash in an iou - having seen himself as doing India a favour in effecting Pakistan pullout from Kargil. Sridharan doesn’t buy the idea that Clinton is here for business. "Right now, China buys six times as much as India does - we are not on par either with Malaysia or Thailand in their trade links with US."

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Clinton is also likely to put forth US views on peacekeeping and its views on humanitarian intervention. It has been suggested by American foreign policy experts that Clinton’s visit to Pakistan is intended to get a handle on terrorism, discuss Indo-Pak relations and the restoration of democracy. The trip also provides India an opportunity to put forward its views on Pakistan’s role in the region which Clinton can assess and convey to Musharraf.

But whatever the details, both sides will do well if the trust forged in the upcoming visit becomes a permanent part of the relationship.

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Opportunities US

  • Articulate the paradigm shift in foreign policy for South Asia Get a large piece of the growing Indian market
  • Explain position on peacekeeping, human rights and humanitarian intervention
  • Cultivate India, vis a vis China, develop a broad-gauge strategic dialogue
  • Try to edge India and Pakistan away from the mouth of the nuclear volcano
  • Cooperate on fighting cross-border terrorism and discuss issues related to nuclear non-proliferation

    Opportunities India

  • To end forever old Cold War suspicions about the evil "foreign hand"
  • To maximize business opportunities
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  • To push for a continuing dialogue on all geostrategic issues
  • To forge a friendship to counterbalance the growing strength of China
  • Hope Clinton conveys India’s views on Pakistan to General Pervez Musharraf
  • Cooperate on fighting cross-border terrorism and discuss issues related to nuclear non-proliferation
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