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Great Bengal Opera

Mamata, sooner or later, had to return to Bengal—the hike in crude prices was her perfect excuse

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Great Bengal Opera
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Is it the beginning of a larger 'third front' axis taking shape and emerging out of the nda government? Or are the impending West Bengal assembly elections weighing heavy on Union railway minister and Trinamul Congress chief Mamata Banerjee's mind? When Mamata and her party colleagues quit the government last fortnight, ostensibly to protest against the price-hike of petroleum products, one wondered whether it was a purely economic move, or had larger political overtones. Either way, it appeared that Mamata would have taken this road, if not now then a few months down the line.

On October 5, Trinamul Congress leader Ajit Kumar Panja articulated the hardline stand of his party. Panja told a TV channel: "We will not go back and rejoin the ministry until a decision regarding price reduction is taken." He went on to add that even if additional cabinet posts were to be allotted to his party, it would not change its position. "Even if five from our party are made ministers, our decision will not change," he said. All his tough posturing notwithstanding, Panja has been the worst hit in this case and it's reported that he is actually very reluctant to practice what he has so bravely declared.

Nevertheless, it has been a week of constant attrition. No sooner was the price hike announced that Trinamul members led by Mamata Bannerjee stalked out of the government saying the hike in petroleum prices as well as the proposed raise in passenger freight was against the interests of the "poor". So, the Union government better roll back prices of petroleum or else face the music.

Vajpayee did what he has by now become adept at: sending peace missives. Earlier it was to Jayalalitha in Chennai, now it's Mamata in Calcutta. The outcomes, unsurprisingly, have not been very different: Mamata declined to listen to special emissary George Fernandes' plea that the government 'could' roll back kerosene prices, if not petrol. But ultimately looks like a stalemate. "I have listened to what the Centre had to say. I have told them my part of the story," Mamata told reporters.

After the defence minister, it was PMO's officer on special duty Sudheendra Kulkarni's turn to try and mollify the tigress. Mamata, however, stuck to her guns. Then on Wednesday, Vajpayee himself called her up. He reportedly told the recalcitrant Trinamul leader that the price rollback must wait till the third week of this month, if at all. He offered to reduce Rs 5 on gas cylinders and a 74 paisa slash on kerosene, both of which were reportedly rejected outright by Mamata. This, when earlier Mamata had said that she welcomed the PM's intervention.

Well-placed party sources say that Mamata is determined to resign from the ministry by October 6, which is her deadline, but not necessarily from the nda. As if to suggest the pattern of things to come, she has disconnected her railway ministry telephones to her south Calcutta residence and appears all set to strike a confrontationist posture.

But what's the reason for this sudden bout of anger? Most believe that the price rise is, at best, a catalyst. The real reason could well be poll tactics—striking a note of populist dissent and making her presence felt in the state.

And what about the recent cabinet reshuffle? How much did it influence Mamata's decision? According to leaders of her party, the induction of bjp MP Satyabrata Mukerjee in the council of ministers got Mamata's goat. "As the senior partner of the bjp, we, at least, expected the common courtesy of being consulted," fumes Mamata.bjp leaders in Delhi, on the other hand, say that Mukerjee's induction has been in view of their assessment that the bjp voteshare is expected to go up in the state.

These two are the principal reasons but there have been other irritants which have fanned this sudden belligerence in Mamata. The Centre's inability to dismiss the West Bengal government being one such nagging problem. The Trinamul supremo is also peeved with the 'attitude' of cabinet colleagues like Nitish Kumar, who did not meet her while he was in Calcutta and disagreed with her assessment that the floods were man-made.

In addition, a confidential Trinamul survey on poll prospects prior to 2001 assembly elections has said that the party is not in a position to win in areas outside south Bengal—some hardliners predicted it would not get more than 60 seats. As for central and north Bengal, the Muslim vote was crucial and would be divided evenly between the Congress and the Left Front. That is, for the Trinamul to expand, the crucial 25 per cent Muslim vote has became top priority.

PMO officials in Delhi, however, say that there are signs that an agreement can still be worked out. In fact, that has been the burden of talks that both Fernandes and Kulkarni have had with Mamata. However, certain bjp allies like Ram Vilas Paswan as well as party MPs like Pramod Mahajan are of the view that given Mamata's compulsion, it is only a question of time when it comes to leaving the nda.

What of the larger gameplan? Political sources say Mamata has been in touch with Andhra Pradesh's CM and Telugu Desam chief Chandrababu Naidu 'on a regular basis'. Add to it the gentle noises emanating from Chennai of Naidu's intimate interaction with Karunanidhi, and a larger picture emerges. There is little doubt that such an alliance could have the backing of Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad. Clearly, this game of political brinkmanship seems to be preparing itself for breaking fresh grounds of opportunism.

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