Delhi
Voting intention and seatforecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections
Party |
Actual vote in1998 (%)
Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)
Swing
(%)
Actual number ofseats in 1998
Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP
34.0
33.4
--0.6
15
11
INC
47.8
49.7
+1.9
52
56
Others
18.2
16.9
--1.3
3
3
Total
100
100
0
70
70
1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party
Respondents who had indicated a Party they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would vote for that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons. The reasons given for voting Congress and BJP are summarized in the table below :
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Congress- I
BJP
Base : Would Votefor.....
1514
1018
% saying
%
%
It can ensure justice for poor
27
20
It can control rising prices
22
21
It can maintain law and order
17
19
It will provide more employment
14
15
It will fight terrorism
14
26
Because of the leader of theparty
14
18
It can bring down corruption /reduce corruption
13
21
It will solve state's problems
12
14
It stands for communalharmony/protects minorities
11
8
It can improve villages
10
12
Old party
9
0
It will help farmers
8
13
Does development work
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8
11
Good party
7
11
Where as the main reasons for intending to vote for BJP isthat it is competent in fighting against terrorism, it can reduce corruption and leader of the party.
2. Important issues facing the State today
Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were :
AllSample
Base : All respondents
3047
% saying..
%
Providing employment opportunities
30
Water problem
28
Electricity / Power situation
24
Poverty
21
Overall development of Delhi
21
Improving roads in Delhi
15
Maintaining law & order
13
Corruption
11
High price
9
As can be seen employmentopportunities, water supply and power situation are the main concerns among the people of Delhi.
3.Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections
The respondents were next asked whether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabhaelections that were held in 1998.
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All Sample
Base : All Sample
3047
% who said they voted for ;
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%
Yes
83
No
17
83% of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan SabhaElections.
4.Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now
|
Partyvoted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
Base : Claim to have voted in
Congress(I)
BJP
1998 for ..
1191
975
Party intend to vote now
% saying:
%
%
Congress - I
88.8
10.7
BJP
2.7
80.4
Others / INDP
1.5
1.3
Don’t know / Can’t say
6.9
7.7
Only 2.7% of the respondents inthe sample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have saidthat they intend to vote for BJP this time. Where as 10.7% ofthose said they had voted for BJP in the 1998 elections now intend to vote for Congress (I).
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Base : Those who claimed tohave voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote forBJP |
32*
% saying…
%
Does good development work (BJP)
35
Want to change the Govt.
14
Overall good performance (BJP)
12
* small base
As can be seen from thetable above, it is mainly the development work done by BJP in the past has attracted people to BJP away fromthe INC.
6. Reasons for Shiftingaway from BJP
The respondents who said thatthey intend to vote for Congress (I) were asked the reasons for not intending to vote for the BJP. The mainreasons mentioned were:
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Base : Those who claimed tohave voted for BJP last time but now intend to vote for Congress(I) |
104
% saying…
%
Does good development work (INC)
31
Overall good performance (INC)
11
Have good leader (INC)
11
Reduce corruption
10
Themain reasons for voting for Congress and not preferring BJP were, good development work done by the Congress(31%).
7.Performance of Sheila Dikshit as the Chief Minister of Delhi
Respondents were next asked torate the performance of Sheila Dikshit of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during her 5-year tenure inDelhi. Responses are as mentioned below:
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AllSample
Base : Allrespondents
3047
% saying..
%
VeryGood
16
Good
26
Average
32
Poor
14
VeryPoor
5
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say
7
Meanscore (out of 5)
3.35
8. Main achievements of Sheila Dikshit
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as very good or good wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base: All thosewho rated performance of CM as very good or good |
1258
%saying:
%
Constructedflyovers
53
She started theMetro rail in Delhi
48
Has improvedelectricity / Power situation
44
Improved roads inDelhi
42
Has done a lot foroverall development of Delhi
41
Has solved thewater problem
30
Has reduce povertylevels in Delhi
14
Provided bettereducation
11
Involvedpeople in schemes like “Bhagidari Scheme “
6
Main reasons mentioned wereconstruction of flyovers in the state, followed by starting up of Metro railway in Delhi, improvement in powersituation and the condition of roads in the state. Indeed a good report for the CM.
9. Main failures of Sheila Dikshit
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as poor or very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor | 532 |
%saying :
%
Has not improvedelectricity / Power situation
48
Has not solved thewater problem
48
Has not done enoughto reduce poverty levels in Delhi
36
Has not done enoughfor overall development of Delhi
30
Has not improvedroads in Delhi
22
Traffic situationhas worsened in Delhi
19
Has not providedEmployment opportunities
19
Corruption hasgrown.
18
Public transportsystem has not improved in Delhi
13
Has not Providedgood education facilities
10
She is notapproachable by people
9
Those who had rated theperformance of Smt. Dikshit as poor to very poor feel that she has not been able to improve the powersituation and water problem in Delhi.
10. Opinionon Bhagidari Scheme by Sheila Dikshit
Therespondents were asked for their opinion about the Bhagidari Scheme started by Sheila Dikshit. The viewsof the respondents are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents |
3047
%saying :
%
BhagidariScheme is an effective forum for the local people to voice their concerns
26
BhagidariScheme is ineffective and just a political gimmick by the Delhi Government
20
Other opinions
4
Don’tknow / Can’t say
50
Halfthe respondents seem to be unaware of the Bhagidari Scheme launched by Sheila Dikshit. The opinion seemsto be somewhat positive among those who said they were aware of the Bhagidari Scheme, 26% think it is aneffective forum for the local people to voice their concerns while 20% feel that it is ineffective and just apolitical gimmick by the Delhi Government.
11. Conversion of public transport into using CNG as fuel
Therespondents were asked that who in their opinion has brought about the conversion of public transport intousing CNG as fuel. The responses are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents |
3047
%saying :
%
The Delhi StateGovernment
16
11
The Supreme Court
55
Don’tknow / Can’t say
18
Morethan half (55%) of the respondents are of the opinion that the Supreme Court is responsible for the conversionof public transport in Delhi into using CNG as a fuel.
12.Party claim over several things in Delhi
Therespondents were asked that according to them which parties do they think is responsible for certain events inDelhi.
Base:All respondents |
Congress(I)
BJP
BothCongress and BJP
Don’tknow / Can’t say
%saying…:
%
%
%
%
Grantingfull statehood to Delhi
21
23
31
25
TheMetro railway for Delhi
35
26
23
16
Constructionof flyovers in Delhi
46
18
20
16
Respondents are of the opinionthat granting of full statehood to Delhi has been a combined effort of Congress(I) and BJP but a larger proportion of the respondents feel that the starting of Metro and the construction of flyoversin Delhi have been possible due to the efforts of the Congress(I). government in the state.
13.Most capable of being the next CM of Delhi
Therespondents were asked who in their opinion is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Delhi. Theviews of the respondents are mentioned below:
3047
% saying :
%
48
Madan LalKhurana
25
Sushma Swaraj
10
Jagdish Tytler
2
Sahib SinghVerma
3
Don’t Know/Can’t Say
About half therespondents (48%) feel that Sheila Dikshit is the most capable of being the Chief Minister of Delhi. Aquarter of the respondents are of the opinion that Madan Lal Khurana of BJP is the most capable of beingthe next CM of Delhi.
14a.Reasons for preferring Sheila Dikshit as CM
Respondents who hadindicated Sheila Dikshit as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Delhi were next asked to givetheir reasons for preferring her. They were free to give one or more reasons.
Base: Thosepreferring Sheila Dikshit as next CM |
1450
% saying:
%
Donedevelopment work / good work
23
Goodperformance of track record
22
Heis honest / clean image
21
Sheis a hardworking
12
Helpthe poor people
10
Sheis a popular leader
9
Sheila Dikshitas the most capable of becoming the next CM of Delhi because she has done good development work, has a goodperformance track record and her honest clean image.
14b. Reasons forpreferring Madan Lal Khurana as CM
Respondents who hadindicated Madan Lal Khurana as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Delhi were next asked to givetheir reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.
Base: Thosepreferring Madan Lal Khurana as next CM |
756
% saying:
%
Heis honest / clean image
25
Donedevelopment work / good work
22
Goodperformance of track record
19
Heis a Popular leader
17
Heis a hardworking
13
Helpthe poor people
8
Heis a experience political leader
8
Madan Lal Khurana is preferred asthe next CM of Delhi mainly because of his honest/clean image and he has done good development work in thestate and has a good performance track record.
List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Delhi
AC |
NO.
ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY
PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY
4
KASTURBA NAGAR
NEW DELHI
10
R.K.PURAM
SOUTH DELHI
12
JANAK PURI
SOUTH DELHI
14
TILAK NAGAR
SOUTH DELHI
18
SHAKURBASTI
OUTER DELHI
20
BADLI
OUTER DELHI
23
SULTANPUR MAJRA(SC)
32
MEHRAULI
OUTER DELHI
39
MANDAWALI
EAST DELHI
47
ROHTAS NAGAR
EAST DELHI
50
GHONDA
EAST DELHI
54
NARELA (SC)
EAST DELHI
55
BHALSWA JAHANGIRPUR
EAST DELHI
57
PAHAR GANJ
CHANDNI CHOWK
63
KAMLA NAGAR
DELHI SADAR
66
PATEL NAGAR
KAROL BAGH (SC)
68
KAROL BAGH (SC)
KAROL BAGH (SC)